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Farming

EU Exit scenario report published

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Report makes stark reading: Lesley Griffiths

HE CABINET Secretary for Energy, Planning and Rural Affairs has welcomed the publication of an EU Exit scenario report for the food, fisheries, farming, forestry and the environment sectors.

The EU Exit scenario report has been published by the Cabinet Secretary’s Brexit Roundtable Stakeholder Group. The group was set up following the referendum result to provide a forum for engagement and collaboration between the Welsh Government and its key stakeholders across the portfolio in planning for Brexit.

Over a number of months, a sub-group examined a number of different Brexit scenarios to identify the possible impacts on the sectors. In its report, five scenarios were developed, including defaulting to WTO terms, an EU-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and complete access to the single market with new FTAs with third countries.

The report summarises the key findings of the work, which was developed with stakeholders across all of the sectors.

Key findings across the scenarios include:

Opportunities arise for some sectors in some scenarios, but not in all.

Food prices increase to some degree across all scenarios, particularly influenced by import tariffs, non-tariff barriers and higher labour costs.

The potential impacts for Welsh fishing vary from collapse under WTO tariffs to no change if the trading arrangements with the EU remain unchanged.

The importance of investing in ‘added value’ is a theme across all scenarios and with all sectors.

The sheep sector faces severe challenges as it relies on export to balance seasonal production and to achieve carcass balance. The pressures from geographical constraints and workforce availability in abattoirs and processing mean lamb markets are likely to struggle in all scenarios.

The dairy and poultry sectors are most robust because of their focus on UK internal markets and lower reliance on export. Beef remains viable with a buoyant dairy industry to supply calves, with a better carcass balance and a lower dependency on export.

The Welsh environment sector remains a potential growth area in term of eco-tourism through landscapes and seascape. It is rich in natural capital but investment is needed to develop new markets and to develop the skills the sector needs.

Government funding significantly impacts the rate of change but not the eventual outcome. For many of the most severely impacted sectors funding is unlikely to be able to prevent the impacts but it could help to facilitate change.

Without Government transitional support, in scenarios of big change, specific sectors may collapse quickly which will have wider consequences on community health and well-being.

Both farming and fishing businesses in Wales need to improve productivity and efficiency, and consider other income streams to stay viable. This will require improved business skills and investment in infrastructure.

The challenges and opportunities of Brexit will be different for each agricultural, fishing, forestry or food business. Mechanisms to support businesses to make the right decisions need to be put in place.

Lesley Griffiths said: “I welcome the publication of this EU Exit scenario report and would like to thank the stakeholders for all their hard work. My Brexit Roundtable Group is a key forum where we engage and work closely with key stakeholders across my portfolio to support a collective approach to Brexit in Wales.

“Leaving the EU brings a high degree of uncertainty, and poses both risks and opportunities across sectors including food, fisheries, farming, forestry and the environment. However, accurately predicting the impacts of Brexit is incredibly difficult.

“The Group has therefore considered a number of scenarios to explore the impact directly on key sectors and between the sectors to enable us to also consider potential wider impacts on our communities and our environment.

“Whilst today’s report makes for stark reading it will be an important resource for us as a government, as well as the sectors themselves, to inform our collective preparations for a successful future outside the EU.”

 

Farming

Badger Trust urges new Welsh Government to reject cull

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Polling shows strong public opposition to killing badgers in Wales

BADGER Trust is calling on Wales’ incoming government to rule out badger culling, after new polling suggested widespread public opposition to killing badgers as part of efforts to tackle bovine TB.

The call comes as a newly expanded Senedd begins its work and a new Welsh Government prepares to set out its priorities.

Badger Trust said ministers and political parties should reject calls for culling and instead focus on “evidence-led cattle measures” to control the disease.

Polling carried out by RSPCA Cymru found that only 27% of people in Wales support badger culling, while 46% are opposed. The survey also found that 63% of respondents were uncomfortable with killing badgers, and 68% opposed the use of public money to fund culling.

The organisation said the figures showed bovine TB was likely to remain one of the most significant animal welfare issues facing Wales in the coming years.

As Plaid Cymru prepares to form a minority government, with Rhun ap Iorwerth MS expected to become Wales’ new First Minister, Badger Trust is urging all parties to take note of public feeling on the issue.

More than half of those surveyed, 51.8%, said they would be less likely to support a political party that backs badger culling, compared with just 7.2% who said they would be more likely to do so.

The poll also found strong support for wildlife protection, with 98% of respondents describing it as important and 69% saying it was “very important”. Around 73% said they were concerned about badger welfare, while 53.8% described badgers as iconic British mammals and 43.5% said they were heavily misunderstood.

Nigel Palmer, chief executive of Badger Trust, said: “The people of Wales have spoken loud and clear: badger culling is a vote loser for the new government.

“It’s clear how much the people of Wales value their badgers as an integral part of their landscape. This underlines the fact that badgers belong here.”

Mr Palmer said Wales should learn from what he described as “politically driven mistakes” in England, where more than 250,000 badgers have been culled over the past 13 years.

He said: “Farmers need support to tackle bovine TB where the infections arise — within the national cattle population, particularly in the larger herds.

“The answer lies in evidence-based cattle measures, delivered in partnership with vets and farmers, not in the unnecessary killing of wildlife.”

Badger Trust said Wales had already shown that bovine TB could be reduced in cattle without killing badgers, through science-led cattle measures aimed at tackling the disease more effectively and humanely.

The charity said the message from the Welsh public was clear, and that Wales should not follow England “down the path of badger culling”.

Badger Trust said: “It’s time to end the badger blame game. The science is solid, and the public has voiced its opinion; now it is time for the new government to listen and act accordingly.”

Badger Trust is the leading voice for badgers across England and Wales and works with local badger groups through its Badgers Belong Here campaign.

 

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Farming

Welsh dairy farmers face ‘perfect storm’ as costs surge

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Rising fuel and fertiliser bills add to pressure as milk prices remain below production costs

WELSH dairy farmers are being warned that rising fuel and fertiliser costs are threatening the viability of family farms already under pressure from weak milk prices.

The Farmers’ Union of Wales says the sector is being squeezed by a combination of global instability, higher input prices and returns that are failing to keep pace with the cost of production.

The union said recent tensions in the Gulf, together with fears over disruption to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, had contributed to sharp rises in costs facing farmers.

Fertiliser prices are reported to have increased by up to 53% compared with levels before the latest conflict, while red diesel costs have effectively doubled in recent months.

The pressure comes at a difficult time for dairy producers, many of whom the FUW says are still receiving milk prices below the cost of production.

The situation could worsen as the spring flush brings higher milk volumes, which can place further downward pressure on farmgate prices and add to cashflow difficulties.

The Central Association of Agricultural Valuers has also warned that tightening oil markets could reach a tipping point in early June, with higher energy costs already feeding through into agriculture.

In response, the FUW has met major lenders, including HSBC and NatWest, to discuss support for farming businesses. The talks focused on flexibility over lending, overdrafts and cashflow arrangements.

The union is urging farmers who are worried about their finances to speak to banks, accountants and advisers at the earliest opportunity.

FUW President Ian Rickman said Welsh farmers were facing a “perfect storm” of international instability and soaring input costs.

He said: “The sharp increases we are seeing in fertiliser and fuel costs are placing enormous pressure on farm businesses at a time when many dairy farmers are already producing milk below the cost of production.

“These challenges are completely outside farmers’ control, yet they are having a direct and immediate impact on the viability of family farms and rural communities across Wales.

“It is therefore vital that farmers speak openly and early with their banks and professional advisers if they are facing difficulties.

“Our recent discussions with major lenders have been constructive. It is encouraging that banks recognise the exceptional circumstances currently affecting the agricultural sector. Flexibility and understanding will be crucial in helping viable farm businesses navigate this period of uncertainty.”

 

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Farming

Plaid urged to move faster on farming reforms amid subsidy concerns

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Welsh Conservatives accuse Plaid Cymru of failing farmers as ministers call for patience over changes to agricultural support

CONCERNS over the pace of farming reforms in Wales have intensified after the Welsh Conservatives accused the Welsh Government of failing to act quickly enough on promised changes to agricultural subsidy schemes.

The criticism comes after Welsh Government Rural Resilience and Sustainability Minister, Llyr Gruffydd, urged farmers to be patient as major changes to support payments continue to be developed.

Speaking to ITV Wales, Mr Gruffydd acknowledged that “change is difficult” as the government seeks to reshape agricultural support across rural Wales. The comments come at a time of growing unease among parts of the farming community over the future of post-Brexit subsidy arrangements and concerns about financial pressures facing farms.

The reforms centre on replacing previous support systems with a new approach intended to balance food production, environmental sustainability and rural resilience. However, some farmers and unions have warned that uncertainty over payments and policy changes risks damaging confidence in the sector.

Reacting to the minister’s remarks, Welsh Conservative Shadow Farming Minister, Andrew RT Davies, said Plaid Cymru was not moving quickly enough to deliver on commitments made to Welsh farmers.

Mr Davies said: “Change is not difficult – contrary to Plaid Cymru separatists’ claims.

“If the will is there, there’s no reason reforms can’t be implemented immediately.

“Plaid Cymru separatists must fulfil their promises to Welsh farmers now.”

The comments reflect wider political tensions over the direction of farming policy in Wales, with opposition parties arguing that delays and uncertainty are creating anxiety for agricultural businesses already facing rising costs and economic pressures.

Farming remains a major part of the Welsh economy, particularly in rural counties such as Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion, where many communities rely heavily on agriculture and associated industries.

The Welsh Government has previously said changes to support schemes are aimed at creating a more sustainable long-term future for farming, though ministers have acknowledged the transition period will take time and may prove challenging for some in the industry.

The debate over subsidy reform is likely to remain a key political battleground as the government finalises details of its future support model and seeks to reassure farmers concerned about their livelihoods.

 

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