Politics

Counting down Brexit by numbers

Published

8 years ago

April 16, 2018

Working class hero: Multi-millionaire Old Etonian Jacob Rees Mogg

FROM March 30, Good Friday, the UK entered the final year of its membership of the European Union.

There have been recriminations on both sides of the EU debate since the UK voted by 52% to 48% to leave the European Union on June 23, 2016.

Leave side voters are divided by their victory over what type of Brexit they want, with a tiny rump of Conservative MPs apparently calling the Parliamentary tune, aided and abetted by a cavalier approach to the truth by government ministers and ever dissipating ‘red lines’. Never can so many on the victorious side have been so angry about winning or so unsure about what to do next.

On the Remain side, recriminations are even more intense. Some are sticking to the ‘it ain’t over ‘til it’s over’ line with increasing desperation, while there are claims of foul deeds committed by the Leave campaign. Some remainers have taken to striking the attitude of Violet Elizabeth Bott – who threatened to ‘thcweam and thcweam and thcweam’ until she was sick unless she got her way.

The refusal to acknowledge that crowding 17.5m voters were prepared to vote leave and meant it is, perhaps, the most revealing and troubling attitude of some dedicated remainers. The people were misled, lied to, duped; there were terrible lies told by the Leave campaign which swayed them; they did not know what they were voting for and had they known they would not have voted to Leave.; there is a need for a second referendum, the unspoken rationale for which is that Remain campaign won’t be as lazy and complacent next time around and voters will see sense.

On March 29, Jane Dodds, the Welsh Liberal Democrat leader said: “With the devastating consequences of Brexit now clearer than ever, it is right the public are asked whether they still want to continue down this path.”

The other side of the coin is the claim by Leave voters that those who voted to remain and are still fighting their corner are – in some way – unpatriotic and doing the UK down. That is an especially popular line from fringe Conservative MPs keen to wrap themselves in the Union Flag abandoned after UKIP’s implosion and plays well in newspapers whose owners reside overseas or in tax exile. Leavers say the argument is settled in a way that they would never have accepted had the vote gone the other way and by the same margin.

On March 29, Jacob Rees Mogg compared Remain campaigners to ‘the Japanese soldier [Hiroo Onada] who finally surrendered in 1974, having previously refused to believe that the Second World War had ended.”

With no end in sight to the sniping – and anyone who thinks that next March will be an end of it is sorely mistaken – it is perhaps worth looking at some numbers both relating to the Referendum result and which might have had an impact upon it.

THE VOTE AND THE POLLS

On June 23, 2016, 72.2% of just over 46.5m eligible voters cast their ballots in the Referendum. That means that almost 33.6m voters took part in the Referendum.

Of those 33.6m voters, 17.4m voted to leave the EU and 16.1m voted to remain.

27.8% voters – a fraction under 13m – did not vote one way or the other.

In percentage terms 52% voted to leave, 48% voted to remain.

In July 2017, ComRes reported:

63% of over-65s, but just 28% of 18-24s, voting Leave. Other age ranges were less divided; almost four in ten 25-44 year olds (37%) voted Leave.
78% of those with a degree voted Remain, while 69% of those whose highest educational attainment was a GSCE grade D-G voted Leave.
Leave voters were least likely to trust either the Government or Parliament – almost two-thirds ‘distrust greatly’ both institutions.
Leave voters are unconvinced of the merits of immigration. While 91% of Remain voters say it ‘enriches’ cultural life, only 9% of Leave voters think the same.

While the majority of the British public still think the government should press on with Brexit, they are far more finely balanced over what sort of Brexit it should be.

A further YouGov poll of just under 5,000 respondents carried out the same month as the ComRes poll showed that 61% of Leave voters think significant damage to the UK’s economy is a price worth paying for Brexit, while the remainder where divided almost equally between those who said it was not and those who ‘did not know’.

However, that poll revealed a significant shift when the same Leave voters were asked whether they thought either losing their own job or a family member losing theirs was a price worth paying. 39% of Leave voters were prepared to throw both themselves and family members under the bus, with 61% either saying no or don’t know to the same question.

That suggests that leave voters are prepared to react with equanimity to the thought of an abstract ‘someone else’ bearing any adverse consequences of Brexit, but less enthusiastic when it comes to bearing adverse consequences themselves.

WHAT BREXIT?

Those results underline the UK Government’s quandary over meeting voters’ expectations on Brexit and further highlight a significant factor that was, perhaps, lost in the Referendum campaign and upheaval afterwards; namely, voting leave did not decide the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU.
Voters were not electing Vote Leave – fronted by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove; instead, voters were presented with a binary choice without any gloss.
The question on the ballot paper was:

‘Should the UK remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’

The question was solely about giving up (or not) membership of the European Union: there was no mention of free movement, the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, or an end to European-style regulation. There was no option to vote leave but remain a member of the European Economic Area. There was no option to vote remain but renegotiate the bits of EU membership you didn’t like. There was not even a requirement that Parliament to treat the result as final and binding.

The public advised Parliament that it wanted to leave the European Union and it is up to Parliament – having decided to follow the Referendum result with action to depart the EU – to determine the terms of departure.

Former industrial areas were much more likely to vote leave than to vote remain. And a clue to why that is the case can be found in the UK Government’s own statistics.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

We looked at a UK Government Briefing Paper on the employment of EU Nationals in the UK.

Across all regions, EU workers are more likely to be working in lower-skilled roles than the workforce as a whole. The proportion of EU nationals employed in elementary occupations was lowest for those living in London and highest in the East Midlands.

EU workers were also less likely to be working in high-skilled managerial and professional occupations than the workforce as a whole.

Although a higher share of EU nationals than UK nationals work in low-skilled occupations, EU nationals are more likely to be “over-educated” for the job they are doing, meaning they hold a higher qualification than was typical for people working in that occupation.

But the Briefing Paper’s findings were, perhaps, most illuminating when it came to employment levels within certain sectors in the decade leading up the Referendum.

Overall, the number of people in employment in the UK increased by around 2.5 million between 2006 and 2016, but while employment grew in some sectors it decreased in others. Even when there were periods of economic growth, more EU nationals found employment than their UK counterparts.

Well over 700,000 UK nationals stopped working in manufacturing industry between 2006 and 2016. But the number of EU nationals employed in manufacturing soared by just under 200,000. In construction, almost 400,000 UK nationals stopped working in that sector in the decade before the Referendum, but around 100,000 EU nationals found work in construction. Around 300,000 UK nationals ceased working in the automotive industry – wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles – while just over 200,000 EU nationals found work within it. And while 100,000 UK nationals ceased working in transport and storage, 100,000 EU nationals found work in that sector.

Those figures – combined with the polling evidence – suggest that voters in former industrial areas did not only perceive a threat to their economic security from membership of the EU and EU immigration to the UK, but ACTUALLY experienced adverse economic consequences as the result of inward migration of EU nationals into their regions and the subsequent displacement to EU immigrants of traditional sources of employment opportunities.

Tellingly, in the service sectors centred upon the major urban areas which voted remain there were greater employment opportunities and fewer EU migrants took up posts in those sectors.

In light of those figures, it can hardly be a surprise that areas which voted Leave by the greatest margin – notably the North West and North East of England – are precisely those areas in which the greatest number of manufacturing jobs were lost.

That economic data also suggests that the idea that re-running the Referendum to get ‘the right result’ would only serve to underline the stark economic and social divisions between two entrenched classes of voter.

A QUESTION OF CLASS

The British Election Study, which provides independent analysis of voting patterns and voters’ decision-making, found that one of the defining features of Leave voters outside of cosmopolitan areas was a nostalgic view of Britain’s past and a desire to turn back the clock.

A sense of national decline was a defining feature of the divide between Leave and Remain voters. The Study asked its respondents (who were screened to represent the proportions of the actual result) how much they agreed or disagreed with the statement ‘things in Britain were better in the past’. Fewer than 15% of those who strongly disagreed that things in Britain were better in the past voted to leave the EU while nearly 80% of those who strongly agreed did so.

The Study established that those who viewed themselves with less control over their lives and destinies were more overwhelmingly more likely to vote leave on the basis that leaving the EU would permit them to establish greater control over their individual destinies.

Combined with the economic data, the Survey’s results support the proposition that social class was the battleground of Brexit and that attempts to overturn the Referendum result will only increase the sense that ‘the classes’ live in an entirely different world – with different expectations, a different world view, and with greater social capital – than ‘the masses’ – who feel forgotten, diminished, and left behind by shining metropolitan visions of what it means to be a UK citizen in the 21st century.

News

UK government boosts Port Talbot transition fund with extra £22m support

Published

9 hours ago

December 17, 2025

Tom Sinclair

AN EXTRA £22 million in UK Government funding has been announced to support workers and businesses affected by Tata Steel’s transition at Port Talbot, taking the total community support package to £122 million.

The funding uplift means the Tata Steel / Port Talbot Transition Board fund now stands at £102 million from the UK Government, alongside a further £20 million contributed by Tata Steel. Ministers say the additional money could help support up to 1,000 more jobs across the local economy.

Since July 2024, the Transition Board has already allocated £80 million to the Port Talbot area, funding thousands of training courses for individuals and helping nearly 200 businesses to start, expand, invest in new equipment and move into new markets.

The UK Government said the rapid deployment of the funding has helped prevent an increase in unemployment benefit claims during Tata Steel’s shift towards greener steelmaking.

Following strong demand for support, a further £22 million has now been allocated, extending the availability of Supply Chain, Business Start-Up, Resilience and Growth funding into 2026. The announcement was made on Thursday (Dec 18).

Secretary of State for Wales Jo Stevens said the government was determined to continue backing the community through the transition.

She said: “This government has acted decisively to support workers and businesses in Port Talbot, allocating the entire £80 million in initial funding quickly into the community to ensure that whoever needed support could access it.

“Grants have been delivered swiftly to meet the needs of local people, businesses and communities, and there is evidence that our approach is working. But we want to make sure that as many people as possible have continued access to support with the extra £22 million for local businesses into the new year.

“We said we would back workers and businesses affected by the transition at Port Talbot and are delivering on that promise.

“It remains a difficult time for Tata Steel workers, their families and the community, but we will continue to support them.”

Ms Stevens announced the funding increase during a visit to Port Talbot-based engineering firm JES Group, which has received Transition Board support. She also toured the JES Academy, which is providing training for dozens of former and current steelworkers.

Justin Johnson, Director of JES Group and The Skills Academy, welcomed the announcement.

He said: “I want to express our gratitude to the UK Government for establishing the original Transition Fund and for now having the foresight to increase the level of support at such a critical moment.

“This uplift will make a significant difference to supply-chain companies like ours. As Tata Steel transitions to electric arc furnace steelmaking, businesses like JES must transition alongside it, while also diversifying into new sectors to reduce reliance on what was once our core work.

“We believe the history of steelmaking in Port Talbot is far from over and that a brighter, greener future lies ahead, but while that future takes shape, diversification is essential.

“The journey has not been easy, and it is far from over, but this additional support creates real opportunities for stability and growth. I also want to recognise Business Wales and Neath Port Talbot Council’s economic development team for their guidance and practical assistance.”

The Transition Board was established to protect jobs and the local economy during Tata Steel’s move to greener steel production. Information on applying for support is available via the Tata Steel Transition Information Hub.

The UK Government has also committed £2.5 billion to rebuild and decarbonise the UK steel industry, with a national Steel Strategy due to be published in early 2026. This includes £500 million already allocated to Tata Steel for the electric arc furnace now under construction at Port Talbot.

Politics

Debate over single Welsh police force reignited amid merger reports

Published

10 hours ago

December 17, 2025

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

THE PROSPECT of merging Wales’ four police forces into a single mega-force has resurfaced, as politicians scrambled to respond to reports of an overhaul of policing in the new year.

Adam Price raised reports that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is considering cutting the number of police forces in Wales and England from 43 to 12 through mergers.

The former Plaid Cymru leader told Senedd members the reforms would represent the “biggest upheaval” of police forces since the 1960s.

Warning the Welsh Government was not consulted on plans to scrap police and crime commissioners, he said: “No change should happen – a merger for example – without full Senedd scrutiny and a Welsh democratic mandate.”

Mr Price suggested an all-Wales model – merging the four police forces, similar to what happened in Scotland in 2013 – could have benefits but said governance would be critical.

During topical questions on Wednesday December 17, he argued a single police force would need to be accountable to the Senedd, with powers over policing devolved to Wales.

The MP-turned-Senedd member urged the UK Government to rule out any cross-border mergers involving a Welsh force being absorbed into an English one.

Responding for the Welsh Government, Jane Hutt described the widespread media reports as “unhelpful, unconfirmed speculation”. But she confirmed the UK Government is expected to publish a white paper in the new year.

Jane Hutt, secretary for social justice, trefnydd and chief whip

She committed to engaging with Sarah Jones, the UK policing minister, who was attending a meeting of the Welsh policing partnership board the next day (December 18).

Ms Hutt told the Senedd she has been assured the UK Government recognises the differing governance arrangements between Wales and England.

Conservative Altaf Hussain urged the Welsh Government to take the opportunity to abandon calls for devolving powers over policing and justice to Wales.

Dr Hussain said: “There is merit in having a single unified police force for England and Wales – if only to tackle dysfunctional forces like Gwent Police, who have allowed a culture of misogyny to persist amongst their officers and leaders.”

Ms Hutt suggested reforms would present a natural opportunity to consider the role of the Welsh Government and Senedd in terms of accountability for policing in Wales. She said the focus is on a phased approach, beginning with powers over youth justice and probation.

Jane Dodds, the Liberal Democrats’ leader in Wales, called for a clear timetable for the devolution of youth justice and probation. “We need more devolved powers,” she said.

Labour’s Alun Davies agreed, accusing UK ministers of putting Ms Hutt in an “invidious position” of responding to hearsay about a fundamental public service. He said: “This is the second time in two months… this simply isn’t good enough.”

Mr Davies criticised Labour colleagues in the UK Government for “clearly” not recognising calls for policing to be devolved and biting the bullet. “That needs to happen,” he said, adding: “It needs to happen as soon as possible.”

The former minister told the Senedd: “We certainly don’t want to see the nationalisation of policing that’s just been proposed by the Conservatives. We’ve never had a national police force in the UK – we don’t want one today.”

It was “groundhog day” for the Conservatives’ Mark Isherwood who reminded the chamber of the then-Assembly’s review of policing in 2005 when mergers were floated previously.

He said: “To recognise the regional cultural and geographical differences that exist within Wales, all agreed that Wales must be policed in regions.”

But Rhys ab Owen, who sits as an independent, argued Wales’ four police forces “make no sense at all” with Police Scotland showing a unified force can “flourish”.

Politics

Support for £27bn spending plans amid uneasy compromise

Published

10 hours ago

December 17, 2025

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

THE SENEDD has backed the Welsh Government’s “imperfect” £27bn draft budget following a late deal to prevent a “catastrophe” for public finances.

The 2026/27 spending plans passed with 24 in favour, 13 against and Plaid Cymru’s 13 members abstaining as part of a near-£300m deal with the Welsh Government. Ministers will unveil the final budget in the new year before a further crunch vote on January 27.

But scrutiny committees warned inflation based on “outdated” forecasts could see real-terms cuts, criticising a lack of preventative spending and “business as usual” funding for culture.

Leading scrutiny on December 16, Peredur Owen Griffiths, who chairs the Senedd’s finance committee, sounded the alarm about inflation figures underpinning the draft budget.

He warned that while health and councils would receive uplifts, these were based on forecasts from March that are already outdated.

Calling on ministers to publish an assessment of inflationary pressures alongside the final budget, he said: “Some areas face real-terms cuts unless funding increases.”

The Plaid Cymru politician also urged the Welsh Government to develop a plan to close a “persistent productivity gap” compared with the UK average.

Peter Fox, the Conservative chair of the health committee, said the NHS initially faced a “historically low” uplift of only 0.5% in real terms before the deal was struck.

Mr Fox made a compelling case for extra funding for “vital” palliative and end-of-life care services as well as more money for respite care for unpaid carers.

While welcoming an extra £180m for health and social care, he warned of a system buckling under pressures in relation to waiting times, staffing and an ageing estate.

“It’s essential to balance these short-term demands with longer-term transformation,” he said, calling for assurances funding for prevention is not lost to immediate firefighting.

This sentiment was echoed by Delyth Jewell, the Plaid Cymru chair of the culture committee, who lamented that the arts sector faces another year of “more of the same” real-terms cuts.

She pointed out that spending on culture in Wales ranks among the lowest in Europe.

Llŷr Gruffydd, chair of the climate change committee, raised concerns about infrastructure, pointing to the transport secretary’s admission that Wales has the UK’s oldest bus fleet.

Mr Gruffydd also criticised cuts to biodiversity, noting a 3.9% fall in day-to-day resource spending and an 8% reduction in longer-term capital funding amid a “nature emergency”.

Meanwhile, John Griffiths, who chairs the local government committee, welcomed a minimum 4% increase for councils but warned “frustrations continue” over the funding formula, which relies on data from the 1991 census.

He said: “We remain concerned that local authorities are still in a vulnerable position and continue to face the prospect of council tax rises, service cuts and job losses.”

His Labour colleague Buffy Williams, chair of the education committee, warned ministers failed to publish a specific children’s rights impact assessment for the 12th year in a row.

Heledd Fychan, Plaid Cymru’s shadow finance secretary, defended her party’s decision to abstain, arguing rejecting the budget could have led to thousands of job losses, council tax rises of 22% and the “very real prospect of bankruptcy for some of our councils”.

“This was a budget that, if it was left unamended, would have proved catastrophic for Wales,” she said, dismissing suggestions Plaid Cymru was “propping up” Labour.

But her Conservative counterpart Sam Rowlands criticised the budget as a failure that “does nothing” to get Wales’ economy moving nor get to grips with long NHS waiting lists.

Reform UK’s Laura Anne Jones added that the “cosy arrangement” between Labour and “their little helpers” Plaid Cymru “smacks of a government that has run out of ideas.”

Reform UK's South Wales East MS Laura Anne Jones — Reform UK’s South Wales East MS Laura Anne Jones

Closing the debate, finance secretary Mark Drakeford insisted the budget deal was “good news for Welsh citizens” because the “catastrophe” of a failed budget has been avoided.

“We have secured that more ambitious set of outcomes,” he said, pointing to the £180m extra for health and social care as well as a £112m for councils as part of the deal.