Politics
Pembrokeshire heads to the polls
THE ELECTIONS to the Welsh Parliament/Senedd Cymru take place today, Thursday (May 6).
Over the last few weeks, we’ve published a guide to the manifestos of each of Wales’ principal parties.
Next today is the crunch and after that comes the business of forming a government.
But first, voting.
HOW TO VOTE
Wales has a combination of voting systems.On Thursday, May 6, you will have two ballot papers for the Senedd. One for your constituency, the other for your region.X in the box against your candidate for the constituency.X in the box for the party you want on the regional list.Forty constituency seats, with the same boundaries as the Westminster election constituencies, elect one member each through first past the post.
The winners of constituency seats don’t need most of the votes, only one more than the candidate in second place.
Twenty further Members of the Senedd are elected on a regional list system.
Wales is divided into five regions, each of which returns four Senedd members.The regions are: Mid & West Wales; North Wales; South Wales Central; South Wales East; South Wales West.
The parties prepare a list of candidates in their own order of preference.
The system supposedly balances the risk of a one-party state by balancing constituency success against votes cast for parties.
THE REGIONAL LIST
If a party is electorally successful in the constituency vote, it starts with a handicap in the regional count.
The formula is complex, but it basically divides the total number of regional votes by one plus the number of constituencies won. Successive rounds of counting then divide the regional vote by one plus the number of constituencies plus any regional seat won in the preceding round.
After four rounds of counting, you have four Senedd Members for the region.
Labour had two regional seats in Mid and West Wales after the 2016 election only because it performed dismally in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies.
If the Labour vote collapses in Mid and West Wales, after this election it might return only one MS to Cardiff. In that case, the lucky winner would be Eluned Morgan.
Ironically, if Plaid Cymru wins Llanelli it will almost certainly lose its regional seat – unless other parties’ regional vote falls and Plaid’s significantly increases.
The Liberal Democrats held one seat in Mid and West Wales last time out, Brecon and Radnor. That success cost William Powell (number one on the candidate list for the LibDems in 2016) a seat. The Liberal Democrats were in poll position for a second seat after the regional votes were counted.
However, in the final round of counting, UKIP’s abject failure in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies combined with regional votes from Pembrokeshire gifted Cardiff Bay with Neil Hamilton’s contrarian presence.
That fact underlines the regional votes’ importance.
FIRST TIME VOTERS
The unknown in this election is the number of first-time voters since the franchise’s expansion to sixteen and seventeen-year-olds. Younger voters tend to be less tribal and more single-issue driven.
If young voters turn out in numbers, there could be a significant swing towards parties that address issues of importance to them in a way that appeals to younger voters.
The likely beneficiaries would be parties closely connected to environmental issues – or at least those who claim to be.
At this point, young voter turnout could be disappointingly low. The last school year was meant to educate prospective young voters about the coming election. Thanks to the pandemic, that fell by the wayside.
In the future, Civics’ presence in the school curriculum is vital. Schools must give students an understanding of how government works, the importance of democracy and citizens’ duty to engage with it.
WHERE WILL UKIP VOTES GO?
The second question is where UKIP’s votes will end up. The Party’s membership, support, and electoral profile have withered along with its momentary political relevance.
Although Pembrokeshire might again buck the regional trend, it’s unlikely UKIP will cross the threshold to get a seat in Mid and West Wales.
Abolish the Assembly (sic.) superficially appears the most attractive party for those who backed UKIP on the regional list last time out. However, the longer the campaign has gone on, the more Abolish has faded. An ITV interview with its leader, Richard Suchorzewski, was truly cringe-inducing.
After saying he respected Wales as a country, Mr Suchorzewski didn’t have an answer when asked to name another country without a parliament.
It was embarrassing to watch and, whether you feel Wales needs/deserves a separate Parliament or not, dire.
With Andrew RT Davies in charge, the Conservatives have burnished their ‘BluKip’ credentials. However, their campaign is endangered by the impression that a Welsh Conservative government would be operated from Westminster and not Wales, with Simon Hart as de facto Governor-General.
It’s a tricky line for the Conservatives to tread. However, if the Conservatives pick up UKIP votes, as well as get their existing regional voter base to turn out -as they did in December 2019 – Tomos Dafydd could pick up a Mid and West regional seat for the Party.
VOTING IS WHAT COUNTS
There are plenty of opportunities to vote on the regional and constituency lists to register what’s called ‘a protest vote’.
Protesting in silence on election day by not voting and complaining for the next five years is an empty and futile gesture.
It’s objectively more important TO vote than HOW you vote.
Voting is what counts.
Nothing else matters in an election.
It’s a few minutes out of your lives and can change Wales.
News
Neyland councillor defends actions following petition for resignation
A STATEMENT has been issued by Cllr Mike Harry in response to a petition calling for his resignation, which was handed in during the Neyland Town Council meeting on Monday (Jan 13). The petition, organised by Mrs P Percival-Maxwell, accuses Cllr Harry of making inappropriate remarks and creating division within the council.
In his detailed statement, Cllr Harry rejected the allegations, describing the petition as “factually incorrect” and part of a targeted effort to discredit him and further destabilise the council.
Cllr Harry explained that his email, which is at the centre of the controversy, was a response to what he described as “insulting and threatening” messages from fellow councillors Brian Rothero, Steve Thomas, and David Devauden. He clarified that the term “degenerates” referred specifically to those individuals, who he accuses of relentless bullying and harassment of the Town Clerk, not Neyland residents.
He also pointed out that the “constituents” referred to in the petition are, in fact, a group of five individuals who attended an unauthorised meeting and whom he alleges are regulars at a local pub owned by Cllr Rothero.
Cllr Harry claimed that the ongoing behaviour of Cllrs Rothero, Thomas, and Devauden has rendered the council dysfunctional and unable to serve the people of Neyland effectively. He described their actions as consistently disruptive, highlighting the negative impact on the Town Clerk and the council’s ability to progress key matters.
“I’d simply had enough and had to finally call it out for what it is,” he stated, noting that his email was directed at a total of eight individuals who, in his view, show no interest in the council’s proper functioning.
Cllr Harry, who has served on Neyland Town Council for nearly 20 years, emphasised his dedication to the community and its residents. “The interests of the residents of Neyland have always been paramount to me,” he said. He expressed frustration over the current tensions within the council, calling the situation “particularly difficult and insulting” and not reflective of why he became a councillor.
The petition has deepened divisions within Neyland, with some residents supporting Cllr Harry’s defence and others standing by the petition’s call for his resignation. The issue highlights broader concerns about the council’s internal dynamics and its ability to address key issues for the community.
News
New holiday lodges at Pembrokeshire deer park get approval
PLANS for disability-friendly holiday lodges at a Pembrokeshire deer park attraction which could be a Wales tourism “benchmark” have been backed, but a final decision is likely to rest with full council.
In an application recommended for refusal at the January 14 meeting of Pembrokeshire County council’s planning committee, Mr and Mrs Evans are seeking permission for 15 lodges at Great Wedlock, Gumfreston, near Tenby, the site of a 176-acre deer farm attraction, which includes animals from the late Queen’s estate, and a more recently-granted market traders’ barn.
An earlier application for the lodges was recommended for refusal by officers at last July’s planning meeting, but, at the start of that meeting, members heard the application had been withdrawn at the agent’s behest.
Reasons for refusal given to members included it was outside of an identified settlement boundary in a countryside location, it was considered to have an adverse impact on visual amenity and did not include a Green Infrastructure statement.
The applicants have previously said build costs to complete the development would be circa £2m.
Following the withdrawal, amended proposals have been submitted by the applicants through agent Atriarc Planning, following a consultation recently held with St Florence Community Council.
St Florence Community Council did not support the previous application, but has supported the latest scheme.
Speaking at the January meeting, Alan Jones, on behalf of the community council, said it was now supporting the “much-improved design” which, amongst other concerns, now addressed the issue of a much wider range of disabilities – including the blind and deaf and hard of hearing – rather than just wheelchair use.
Applicant Andrew Evans told the meeting the proposals would support a whole raft of people with varying disabilities, Great Wedlock already taking a “head-on” approach supporting people with disabilities through special vehicles at the deer park, and encouraging people with disabilities to apply for staff vacancies.
“This is not an application for yet another holiday park, it is a well thought out one for those who have a disability, which will make them a majority rather than a minority; it will make us at the forefront for people in Wales to visit with a disability.”
Local member, Cllr Rhys Jordan moved the application be supported in spite of an officer recommendation for refusal, saying it was “an opportunity to address a clear shortage [for disability-friendly accommodation] and a chance for Pembrokeshire to lead the way in accessible tourism,” adding: “Most importantly the lodges will be 100 per cent accessible and set a benchmark, positioning Pembrokeshire as a leader in accessible tourism.”
He finished: “Approve this forward-thinking proposal today.”
Officers have recommended planners refuse the scheme, for similar reasons to previously, saying the material considerations put forward in the agent’s supporting planning statement “are not sufficient to overcome the conflict with relevant Development Plan policies”.
Members voted 11 in favour to two against supporting the scheme.
The committee’s backing of the proposal takes the form of a ‘minded to’ support, meaning the proposal will return to a future meeting as it is against an officer recommendation, and, if supported a second time, will ultimately have to be decided by full council, in this case potentially at the March meeting.
The applicants’ previous scheme for the trading barn took an identical route, being decided by full council after repeatedly being recommended for refusal.
Community
Welsh council chiefs call for minimum funding increase to prevent bankruptcy risk
COUNCIL chiefs called for a minimum 4% increase in funding for each local authority and three-year settlements to avert the risk of a Welsh council going bust.
Andrew Morgan, leader of Rhondda Cynon Taf council, warned of “extreme” budget pressures as he appeared before the Senedd’s finance committee on January 15.
He welcomed a £253m uplift in the overall settlement from the Welsh Government but contrasted the increase against a £559m funding gap in the 12 months from April.
He said: “Clearly, the figures show it actually only meets about half of the actual demand for the coming 12 months, so there is going to be significant pressure on local authorities.”
Cllr Morgan, who is leader of the Welsh Local Government Association, the collective voice of Wales’ 22 councils, added: “It is increasingly difficult to be able to explain to the public that we’ve put council tax up while still reducing services.”
He told the committee: “When it comes to council tax, most local authorities are in the range of 5% or upwards for budget planning at least at this stage.
“We are acutely aware of the pressure on local residents in terms of the cost of living, so it is a real dilemma for local authorities.”
Pressed on whether any councils in Wales could issue section 114 (bankruptcy) notices, Cllr Morgan said: “I certainly don’t think there will be any risk of 114 notices in the coming year but that’s not to say that there isn’t a risk there in the medium to long term.”
Asked about Audit Wales’ warning that councils are financially unsustainable, Cllr Morgan called for a three-year settlement to allow planning beyond a 12-month cycle.
He said: “Welsh Government comes out with a provisional settlement in December, that only gives us ten or 12 weeks for us to line up all our ducks in terms of making budgets add up – that’s what’s not sustainable, I would suggest.”
Anthony Hunt, leader of Torfaen council, described the challenge next year as “orders of magnitude different” due to a better-than-expected settlement from the Welsh Government.
He said: “There will be schools that retain staff, there will be services that can be maintained.”
Cllr Hunt told the committee a flat budget or 1% increase, as first feared, would have had “unthinkable” consequences, with “massive” service cuts and redundancies across Wales.
With councils receiving increases ranging from 2.6% to 5.6%, he made the case for a 4% floor which would be funded from outside the settlement at a cost of about £13m.
He emphasised that the 22 principal councils will never be happy with the wider funding formula because there will always be winners and losers.
Lis Burnett, leader of Vale of Glamorgan council, raised the example of hospital discharges.
She said: “I think we’re probably one of the best in Wales now that we can actually get a care package sorted out for people to go home within approximately three days.
“That has been of great benefit to the health board but it basically means that we’re £10m overspent in our social care.”
Turning to education, Cllr Burnett said: “We’re having to be very, very careful in terms of how we rationalise spending for education. The demands, and the complexity of demand, have gone up exponentially – particularly since the pandemic.”
She said her council was “lowest funded by a long way” in terms of education, adding that there is an appetite for reform of the funding formula.
Nia Jeffreys, leader of Gwynedd council, said her local authority has cut £74m over the past decade, nearly a quarter of its day-to-day revenue budget.
Warning of no easy choices, Cllr Jeffreys told the committee: “The efficiency savings have been made already and we’re in a situation now where we’re looking at real-terms cuts … that means stopping doing things and halting services that people rely upon.”
She said Gwynedd and other councils in north Wales are looking at increasing council tax by 8% to 9%, placing a burden on families already struggling with a cost-of-living crisis.
Cllr Jeffreys echoed calls for an “absolutely vital” funding floor, pointing to additional costs of delivering public services in more rural areas.
Asked about increases in employer national insurance contributions, she put the cost to Gwynedd council at about £4.5m.
Cllr Hunt said councils have been assured that they will be given money towards the cost of the rise for directly employed staff.
He stressed: “That national insurance rise is one of the reasons why there’s more money now for public service organisations. And I think we need to be a bit careful not to welcome funding but complain about where it’s come from – it needs to come from somewhere.”
Cllr Morgan said the biggest concern is the money to cover the cost being “Barnettised” (i.e. based on spending in England) which could leave Welsh councils short.
He told the committee education and social care now make up about 70% of all council budgets, suggesting only so much “tinkering” can be done within the other 30%.
He raised concerns about the “eye-watering” costs of children’s care to councils, with some specialist placements costing a five-figure sum each week for every child.
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