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Politics

Labour win leaves every party with problems

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AGAINST all predictions, the elections to the Welsh Parliament have produced neither a coalition nor a breakthrough for either the Conservatives or Plaid Cymru.

Instead, Mark Drakeford will return to Cardiff Bay as First Minister at the head of a Labour Government.

Although thirty seats is not an overall majority, something Labour has never had in Wales, it is more than enough to form a government able to advance its policies with very little horse-trading.

The presence in the Welsh Parliament of a lone Liberal Democrat, Jane Dodds, will almost certainly lead to Labour having 31 dependable votes without having to do too many deals with Plaid Cymru to get what it wants.

CONSERVATIVES STILL WAIT FOR THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD

Red wall’s failure to crumble leaves RT with a problem

The Conservatives captured only one of their target seats, the Vale of Clwyd. They racked up impressive performances in seats they already held.

Apart from the Vale of Clwyd, they failed to make any breakthroughs in North Wales. In seats like Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan, the Conservatives went backwards at a rate of knots.

Already ‘sources’ in the Conservatives claim it’s because the party in Wales didn’t capitalise on the Brexit vote. That, again, reveals a party too intent on internal faction-fighting and reliving the Brexit psychodrama than one focussed adequately on the present and the future.

It also rewrites history (the Conservatives did rather well in December 2019) and ignores an important reality.

Mark Drakeford’s profile during the last year rose.

His regular public briefings brought him and the powers the Labour Government has in Cardiff Bay into people’s daily lives.

As Labour Minister Lee Waters admitted, Mark Drakeford might be ‘a bit nerdy, a bit boring’, but he was Labour’s biggest electoral asset.

As the Conservatives in Wales cleaved to an ever-closer union with Boris Johnson’s Westminster Government, the personal contest boiled down to Boris versus Mark.



The Welsh public took one look at the calm and (yes) boring Mark Drakeford and the shambling sloganeering Boris Johnson and decided which they preferred.

The Welsh Government’s steady and cautious approach to the pandemic contrasts favourably with the scandal-mired and higgledy-piggledy approach over Offa’s Dyke.

Suppose the Conservatives in Cardiff Bay continue to behave like sock puppets for Westminster. In that case, they will never break through to a Welsh public that has not returned a Conservative majority since the nineteenth century.

Someone needs to sit down and explain that to Andrew RT Davies and his handlers in plain and honest language.

The question boils down to this: are you Welsh Conservatives with a plan for Wales or Conservatives in Wales with an agenda set by Westminster and the Welsh Office?

The Conservatives cannot ride two horses at once and need to be upfront about who and what they are.

That said, the Conservatives are Wales’ second party – and by some margin, too. The validity of conservatism as a force in Welsh politics can be neither ignored nor understated.
No matter how much abuse is flung at their candidates and activists on social media by activists from the left and/or those supporting independence, that’s a political reality and will remain so for some time.

A failure to acknowledge opposing ideas not only exist but have the right to exist is a fatal flaw in both nationalist and left-wing politics. Particularly for the former: without persuading small ‘c’ conservatives to support independence, the chances of winning a referendum are practically nil.

PLAID LOOK FOR DIRECTION AND A FUTURE

Despite Adam Price’s abilities, and try as they might, Plaid cannot break through to voters

The election was undoubtedly disappointing for Plaid Cymru. Brave talk and bold promises did not convert to votes where it mattered.

In target marginals, their vote simply didn’t materialise.


Plaid Cymru lost former leader Leanne Wood, and Helen Mary Jones was crushed in Llanelli.

Llanelli has long been the most marginal seat in Wales. Lee Waters’ new majority is some way north of 5,500 and looks to have ended Helen Mary Jones’ long political career.

In Preseli Pembrokeshire, Cris Tomos increased Plaid’s vote by over 50%. In Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, Plaid’s vote-share went up by over a fifth.

That happened through a volunteer effort as resources were piled into Llanelli, where Plaid was routed.

Plaid has less money than other parties. The folly of pouring resources into a single seat shows weakness. There was no need for a paid organiser for one seat – it should’ve been a regional effort to maximise Plaid’s regional vote.


While the losses of Leanne Wood and Helen Mary Jones are undoubtedly a blow to Plaid Cymru in the Senedd, it is unlikely to upset too many more traditionally-minded party activists.

Plaid’s core problem is that its central office staff and its national executive consists of factional activists who pursue sectional interests above creating a policy agenda that speaks to the sort of voters Plaid needs to pick up.

Those small ‘c’ conservatives – socially conservative but inclined to Plaid on other issues – have no home or voice in the party.

They might vote Labour. They might vote Conservative. Far worse, they might not vote at all. And they will not vote for Plaid.

If Plaid is going to be a third party with influence, instead of a ginger group constantly on the fringes of power but without ever exercising it, it needs to professionalise its organisation and stop the nonsense which ties the hands of regional campaigns.

There’s no point having your head in the clouds if you’re hurtling towards the ground without a parachute.

TIME TO ABOLISH ABOLISH

The argument is over. The Welsh Parliament is here to stay.

A website, a slogan, a few polls. Constantly bigged-up by the London media and the BBC, Abolish the Assembly (sic.) got exactly what it deserved.

Bog all.

The Greens outperformed Abolish – again – demonstrating the farce of Richard Suchorzewski’s invitation from the BBC to the main leadership debate for what it was.

While the Abolish voice will not be silenced, its hammering will ensure it won’t be given a free pass in the future.

After five years of faction-fighting, UKIP’s vote predictably collapsed.

Only one of its candidates – Paul Dowson in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire – came within 50 of getting 1,000 votes in any constituency.

As Welsh online media becomes more diverse and breaks through to more people in Wales, and it will, the hold of London dead tree media will decrease. The chances of fringe single-issue parties getting the coverage and exposure they enjoyed before the election will recede.

Not because those voices aren’t necessary, but because the voters – those who consume media – don’t think they’re important enough to justify coverage.

The argument about abolition is over. What remains is the debate about what powers the Welsh Parliament has in the future.

THE THREAT TO LABOUR

As Labour’s biggest asset in the election, who succeeds Mark Drakeford will be vital to Labour’s future chances

When a party has performed so far above pollsters’ expectations in an election, it sounds strange to speak of its threats and problems.

But there are issues that Labour cannot ignore.

It has no excuse left for not delivering its modest policy agenda within the five years of this Welsh Parliament.

Secondly, turnout in Labour safe seats – those with no second party threat – was humiliatingly small. Swansea East turned out barely a third of its electorate, and Merthyr and Rhymney 35%. That’s no ringing endorsement for a sitting government from its core voters.

The politics of Wales outside Labour safe seats were far more dynamic, and the electoral significantly more engaged.

Although barely half of 16-17-year-olds registered to vote, most of those who registered voted. And a basic assessment suggests they voted disproportionately for Plaid and the Green party over the big two.

Complacency is also a risk. Labour cannot just sit back; it’s got a more-or-less working majority under its own steam. There can be no excuses now.

The pandemic was the Welsh Government’s unseen friend in this election. It raised the Welsh Government’s profile within Wales and showed the public what the Welsh Government could do with its powers. It boosted Mark Drakeford’s public profile.

As the campaign went on it became noticeable other Labour ministers faded into the background in favour of a focus on Mark Drakeford’s personal qualities.

In the past, this was called ‘the doctor’s mandate’ in UK elections, and Mark Drakeford’s evident diligence and doggedness played well.

In the absence of the pandemic, it’s hard to see how Labour could’ve maintained its death-grip on the levers of power unaided.

The biggest challenge for Labour is who succeeds Mark Drakeford and when.

He said he would stand down in this Parliamentary term, and that leaves Labour a real difficulty.

The personal focus on Mark Drakeford deflected attention from the shortcomings of pretenders to his throne.


Vaughan Gething: patronising, easily rattled, waspish, doesn’t command the detail.

Ken Skates: unfairly labelled plastic but with a sound grasp of policy but almost no public profile to speak of.

Probably the ablest of the Welsh ministers is Lee Waters. He is bright and articulate but hamstrung by a reputation for being ‘difficult’.

Nine out of ten voters probably couldn’t name any other members of the last Labour cabinet. Unless you’re a farmer. In which case, you’ll have a Lesley Griffiths dartboard.

Without Mark Drakeford at the helm, there’s a distinct shortage of candidates with either the public profile or political weight to take up the post of First Minister.

Wind forward five years, Labour faces a real fight if it fails to deliver on its limited manifesto and lacks a leader who appeals to the wider Welsh public and not just Labour’s endemic tribalism.

Then the political landscape of Wales might well change.

Politics

Welsh ministers to introduce fire safety bill eight years after Grenfell

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WALES’ housing secretary confirmed plans to bring forward a building safety bill in 2025, eight years after 72 people died in the Grenfell Tower tragedy in London.

Jayne Bryant told the Senedd that accountability will be at the heart of the bill, which will reform the regulation of safety risks in multi-occupied residential buildings.

Ms Bryant, who was appointed in July, said the new system will include all buildings containing two or more homes, with some exceptions, not only those of 18m or above.

The housing secretary described progress on fire safety in Wales as comparable to England, with Scotland and Northern Ireland both significantly behind.

Ms Bryant promised to emphasise the urgency of remediating fire safety issues during a meeting with developers this week.

The Conservatives’ Janet Finch-Saunders said only 2% of buildings have completed the required safety work despite many promises by the Welsh Government.

The Aberconwy Senedd Member pointed out that ministers’ plans to pass a building safety bill by 2026 will come more than eight years after the Grenfell Tower disaster.

She said those affected feel completely despondent: “Let’s not forget, these people are living in unsafe, at-risk-of-fire properties, and they’re unsellable – they are stuck in that situation.”

Mark Isherwood, the Tory shadow housing secretary, warned delays and gaps persist despite claims progress is being made on building safety reforms.

Mr Isherwood, who chairs the Senedd’s public accounts committee, said people’s safety concerns should be prioritised rather than sidelined in bureaucracy.

Siân Gwenllian, Plaid Cymru’s shadow housing secretary, raised concerns about many tenants and residents living under clouds of uncertainty and risk for too long.

She said: “We need to ensure that developers keep to their commitments but also that the government has clear outcomes for any developers that fail to reach the standards.”

Ms Gwenllian called for clarity on consequential funding for Wales after the UK Government budget, with investment in remediation set to rise to more than £1bn in 2025/26.

She stressed that funding will be central to success, saying: “We have to avoid any situation where financial deficit leaves some buildings unsafe.”

She tentatively welcomed news that developer Watkin Jones has “at last” signed a deal to make properties safe at Victoria Dock in Caernarfon.

Jane Dodds, the Liberal Democrats’ leader in Wales, said it is unacceptable that addressing fire safety has taken so long following the Grenfell tragedy.

John Griffiths, who chairs the Senedd’s housing committee, raised the disproportionate impact of the building safety crisis on disabled leaseholders.

Mr Griffiths also expressed concerns about remediation work at the nearby Celestia complex in Cardiff Bay being behind schedule and expected to take three years.

His Labour colleague Mike Hedges similarly raised constituents’ concerns about delays to work at the Altamar building in Swansea.

Rhys ab Owen, an independent who represents South Wales Central, said accountability and transparency are chief among leaseholders’ concerns.

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Politics

Plan for gender-balanced Senedd ‘lacks teeth’

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VOLUNTARY guidance aimed at making the Welsh Parliament more representative of the population lacks any real teeth, Senedd Members warned.

Sioned Williams described new draft guidance for political parties on diversity and inclusion as “too little, too late”, with the next Senedd election less than 18 months away.

Plaid Cymru’s shadow social justice secretary said the voluntary guidance has no teeth after the Welsh Government scrapped a proposed law on gender quotas in September.

She said: “Although any and all steps to try to increase diversity in politics are very welcome, I am deeply disappointed at the rolling back by the Welsh Government.”

Ms Williams suggested a once-in-a-generation opportunity to ensure a 50:50 gender split may have been missed, given the current progressive majority in the Senedd.

She said: “Candidates are already declaring their intention to stand.

“Voluntary guidance, which won’t be ready for months, really isn’t going to achieve that change for the Senedd elections in 2026.”

Her Plaid Cymru colleague Heledd Fychan pointed out there will be no penalties nor repercussions if political parties do not implement the guidance.

The Conservatives’ Darren Millar criticised a lack of engagement from the Welsh Government since legislation on gender quotas was withdrawn.

He questioned a “limited” focus on other aspects of equality such as age, faith and disability.

Mr Millar, who represents Clwyd West, said: “We very much hope when the final guidance is published it will be reflective of that broader range of characteristics.”

Jane Dodds, the Liberal Democrats’ leader in Wales, raised the Electoral Reform Society’s warning of a “sizeable risk” the next Senedd could be the least gender-balanced in history.

She told the debating chamber or Siambr: “The evidence is clear: legislative gender quotas are the only way to achieve gender-balanced Senedds.”

Ms Dodds, who represents Mid and West Wales, suggested political expediency and party interests were prioritised over women’s representation and democratic reform.

Hannah Blythyn, a Labour backbencher who represents Delyn, said making the Senedd more representative not only changes the face of politics but its focus too.

Ms Blythyn said: “We’ve talked about other protected characteristics and as an out lesbian, I’m very much in the minority in this place still and I’d like to see that diversity grow.”

In a statement to the Senedd on November 12, Jane Hutt recognised “huge disappointment” that gender quotas will not be underpinned by law.

Describing the draft guidance as a catalyst for change, the social justice secretary stressed that the Welsh Government remains committed to a gender-balanced Senedd.

Ms Hutt explained the final guidance, which is also aimed at council elections, will be published in spring following confirmation of new boundaries for the 2026 Senedd poll.

Pointing to measures under the Elections and Elected Bodies Act passed in July, she said: “We all know the guidance alone is not enough to ensure we achieve diversity in politics.”

She added: “Women are an under-represented majority in this Senedd. By including the section on voluntary gender quotas in the guidance, I want all parties to recognise the importance of considering what action they may take to increase women’s representation.”

consultation on the draft guidance closes on January 7.

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Education

Concern over ‘highest-ever’ school bullying rates

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RATES of bullying in Welsh schools have reached record levels, with more than one in three children and young people reporting being bullied, the Senedd heard.

Gareth Davies raised concerns about a 6% increase in bullying between 2021 and 2023, according to a survey of more than 130,000 pupils in 200 secondary schools.

The Conservatives’ shadow mental health minister told the Senedd: “These results are higher than ever previously reported in the survey, which is deeply troubling.”

He said the latest survey showed regression on “just about every metric of pupil wellbeing”, including growing social isolation and a rise in behavioural issues.

Mr Davies, who worked in the NHS in north Wales for more than a decade, pointed to a 2021 legal duty to have regard to the mental health of children and young people.

He said: “The mental health of pupils has declined and reports of bullying in schools have only increased, so the Welsh Government have failed in that duty, unfortunately.”

Plaid Cymru’s Cefin Campbell called for an update to 2019 anti-bullying guidance for school governing bodies following a commitment from the Welsh Government eight months ago.

The shadow education secretary focused on the impact of poverty, warning the high cost of school uniforms can cause stress and lead to bullying.

Mr Campbell, a former lecturer, expressed concerns about penalties, such as detention, for pupils over non-compliance with uniform policies.

Raising a report on “horrific” experiences of racism in Welsh schools, he said one pupil was told a classmate did not want to sit next to them due to the colour of their skin.

“That’s entirely unacceptable in our schools,” said Mr Campbell.

Labour’s Carolyn Thomas warned children’s mental health is at an all-time low, pointing to smartphones and social media as major contributing factors.

She said: “They can be used to bully, manipulate and control, sending young people into an isolated world of despair, not thinking they can get out of it or go to somebody for help.”

The North Wales politician highlighted a petition calling for a ban on phones in schools.

Rhys ab Owen, an independent who represents South Wales Central, stressed that bullying can impact people for decades to come after school.

“But it’s an issue that doesn’t affect learners equally,” he said. “In Cardiff, around a third of learners come from ethnically diverse backgrounds.

“And I was staggered to read a survey from 2020, which said that 61.5% of learners had expressed stereotypes over skin colour, religion and nationality.”

In a statement on November 12 to mark anti-bullying week, Lynne Neagle accepted that bullying continues to be an issue in Welsh schools.

Pledging to prioritise the problem, Wales’ education secretary said new statutory anti-bullying guidance will be published for consultation after Christmas.

Ms Neagle pointed to concerning trends, including 42% of girls scoring high or very high in a questionnaire on psychological problems compared with 27% of boys.

She told the Senedd: “I wouldn’t want to be a teenager growing up today.”

Ms Neagle stated the Welsh Government provided more than £800,000 this year for one of the biggest surveys of children and young people in the UK.

She said: “The link between bullying and mental health is well known. At its most extreme, young people have taken their own lives as a result of being bullied. This is a tragedy for the young life lost, for their family and friends and for whole communities.”

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