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Occupier demand for commercial property in Wales remains subdued

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WHILST occupier demand remains in decline, there has been improvement quarter-on-quarter
Investor and occupier demand for industrial space remains stronger than retail and office
12-month rental and capital value expectations improved markedly, driven by the industrial sector
The commercial property market in Wales remained sluggish and lacking momentum in Q4 2023, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Commercial Property Monitor. However, there were improvements on the previous quarter, and forward-looking sentiment improved markedly.

A net balance of -23% of surveyors in Wales reported a fall in occupier demand through Q4 2023, and although remaining in negative territory, this was an improvement from the -42% that was seen in Q3. Looking at each subsector, a net balance of -18% of Welsh respondents reported a fall in demand for office space, -4% for industrial and -45% for retail space. Again, these each represented less negative sentiment than in the previous quarter.

Looking at investor demand, this also improved quarter on quarter, but only marginally. A net balance of -32% of respondents in Wales reported a fall in overall investment enquiries, up from -35% the quarter previous. Investor demand for both retail and office space continued to fall (net balances of -47% and -50% respectively). According to surveyors, investor enquiries for industrial space fell flat through the final quarter of the year.

Short-term capital value expectations also improved quarter-on-quarter whilst remaining in decline. A net balance of -22% of respondents in Wales expect a fall in overall capital values, and although this is the sixth consecutive quarter this figure remains in negative territory, this figure has improved from -40% that was seen in Q3, and -30% that was seen in Q2. Industrial is the only subsector in which a net balance of surveyors in Wales expect a rise in capital values over the next three months.

However, longer term, overall capital value expectations seem more positive according to Welsh surveyors. A net balance of -5% of respondents expect all-sector capital values to fall over the next 12 months. This is up from -38% in Q3. This is largely driven by the industrial sector though, with a net balance of 50% of Welsh respondents anticipating capital values to rise for industrial space over the next year.

Rents are anticipated to fall at all-sector level in the short-term but expectations are less negative than the previous quarter. A net balance of -11% anticipate that rents for commercial property will fall through the first quarter of 2024, compared to -25% in Q3. Industrial space continues to be the strongest subsector with a net balance of 39% of respondents expecting rents for this type of space to rise through Q1 2024. On a 12-month horizon, rental expectations are their least negative since June 2022, with a net balance of -7% of respondents. Expectations for industrial rents in a year’s time are at their highest in three quarters.

Robert James Harrison of Triang Developments Ltd in Welshpool commented: “There remains a shortage of industrial buildings for business growth in parts of Wales due to a lack of availability of development land and high construction costs.”

James Perry of Property Consultants in Cardiff added: “I predominantly deal with industrial property and whilst demand has reduced slightly over the last six months, it is still strong and outstripping supply for all but the largest properties.”

Commenting on the UK picture, RICS Senior Economist, Tarrant Parsons, said: “Current conditions remain challenging across the UK commercial property market, with investor demand still being weighed down by the tighter lending climate and uncertain outlook for values. At the same time, relatively weak momentum with respect to economic activity more generally is taking its toll on tenant demand, with the ongoing structural challenges facing parts of the office and retail sectors also hampering market sentiment. That said, the significant turnaround in expectations for monetary policy of late provide a reason for cautious optimism going forward, and the latest results do point to a more stable backdrop for credit conditions coming through this quarter.”

Business

Ferry Terminal ‘extremely busy’ due to ongoing Holyhead closure

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PEMBROKE DOCK Ferry Terminal has been experiencing significant congestion today as ferry services remain under immense pressure following the closure of Holyhead Port earlier this month.

The disruption, caused by storm damage, has rerouted ferry traffic through Pembrokeshire, leading to long queues and crowded facilities at the terminal.

The Herald can confirm that it has been very busy today with cars, lorries, and foot passengers queuing in large numbers. Staff are working tirelessly to manage the influx, directing vehicles and assisting passengers as they prepare to board the heavily booked ferries.

A spokesperson for the Port of Milford Haven said: “We are working closely with ferry operators and local authorities to ensure traffic flows as smoothly as possible, but the sheer volume of vehicles is causing unavoidable delays.”

Travelers are being urged to arrive early for their sailings and to remain patient as the terminal operates at full capacity.

Both Stena Line and Irish Ferries have increased capacity on their Pembrokeshire routes, deploying larger vessels, including the Stena Adventurer and the MV James Joyce, to handle the surge in demand.

From our position at the terminal, our photographer has captured photos showing long lines of vehicles, groups of foot passengers carrying luggage, and port staff coordinating efforts to ease congestion.

Authorities are advising non-essential travelers to consider rescheduling their journeys where possible and to monitor updates from ferry operators closely.

(Photos: Martin Cavaney/Herald)

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52 homes to be built in Roch as scheme gets final sign-off

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THE FINAL stage of approval for a near-£10m Pembrokeshire residential development of 52 homes has been given the go-ahead.

Back in April, members of Pembrokeshire County Council’s planning committee backed an application by Wakefield Pembrokeshire Ltd for the development, which includes four one-bed affordable housing units, on land near Pilgrims Way, Roch.

18 objections to the scheme were received, raising concerns including an “inadequate” affordable housing level, it being a high density development for a rural area, a loss of green space, the size of some of the homes, and pressures on existing services and facilities, and fears it may lead to an increase in second homes.

Nolton & Roch Community Land Trust (N&RCLT) has raised its concerns about a lack of affordable homes at the development, calling for a 20 per cent affordable homes element, as recommended by policy.

An officer report for members, recommending conditional approval, said: “It is apparent that the proposed development is not fully policy compliant, insofar as it cannot deliver the indicative 20 per cent affordable housing sought [by policy].

“However, a substantial positive social impact will arise through the provision of housing, including four one-bed affordable housing units, in meeting identified needs for both market and affordable housing.

“Financial obligations identified to mitigate adverse impacts arising from the proposed development cannot be met in full. However, [policy] acknowledges that in such circumstances contributions may be prioritised on the basis of the individual circumstances of each case.”

Speaking at the meeting, agent Gethin Beynon said the project had a “significant economic value” of around £10m, and the local applicant had “a sense of stewardship to the local community,” offering affordable housing and community infrastructure towards highways and education.

Approval was delegated to the council’s head of planning to approve the application, subject to the completion of a Section 106 planning obligation, making community financial contributions.

The Section 106 agreement was recently agreed, with the application now formally approved.

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World of engineering and welding SPARCs interest in Ysgol Harri Tudur’s female learners

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AN EVENT hosted by Ledwood Engineering gave girls from Year 8 and 9 at Ysgol Harri Tudur first-hand experience of the world of engineering recently. 

Engineering is a booming sector in Pembrokeshire with a high demand for skilled workers in exciting career pathways associated with the development of low carbon and renewable energy industry and the Celtic Freeport. 

The young women heard from industry experts on the importance of engineering in Pembrokeshire, and had hands on experience using a welding simulator, at the company’s Pembroke Dock site. 

The learners are part of the County’s SPARC (Sustainable Power and Renewable Construction) initiative aimed as inspiring and empowering young females to consider careers in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) pathways where females are under-represented in the workforce. 

SPARC is funded through an alliance comprising Blue Gem Wind, Ledwood Engineering, Port of Milford Haven, RWE Renewables, Pembrokeshire County Council, Pembrokeshire College and the Swansea Bay City Deal. 

Mrs Laura Buckingham, SPARC practitioner at Ysgol Harri Tudur said: “Our learners had a fantastic experience at Ledwood Engineering.  They were given lots of advice by industry experts on the different career options and pathways within the engineering sector.  

“They appreciated the opportunity to ask their questions and found the session very informative. Having the chance to trial their welding skills on the simulator was an experience they continue to talk about and has definitely piqued their interest.”

Poppy Sawyer, Year 8 SPARC learner added:  ‘It was a really good trip. Talking to the different people there has helped me know more about the jobs we could get which will be very useful when making choices for my future.”  

 “They helped us a lot by giving us lots of information. We were able to look around and try welding. It was really fun,” added Tianna Marshall, Year 8 SPARC learner.

The Regional Learning and Skills Partnership also launched its Explore Engineering interactive website at the event.

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