Business
Occupier demand for commercial property in Wales remains subdued
WHILST occupier demand remains in decline, there has been improvement quarter-on-quarter
Investor and occupier demand for industrial space remains stronger than retail and office
12-month rental and capital value expectations improved markedly, driven by the industrial sector
The commercial property market in Wales remained sluggish and lacking momentum in Q4 2023, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Commercial Property Monitor. However, there were improvements on the previous quarter, and forward-looking sentiment improved markedly.
A net balance of -23% of surveyors in Wales reported a fall in occupier demand through Q4 2023, and although remaining in negative territory, this was an improvement from the -42% that was seen in Q3. Looking at each subsector, a net balance of -18% of Welsh respondents reported a fall in demand for office space, -4% for industrial and -45% for retail space. Again, these each represented less negative sentiment than in the previous quarter.
Looking at investor demand, this also improved quarter on quarter, but only marginally. A net balance of -32% of respondents in Wales reported a fall in overall investment enquiries, up from -35% the quarter previous. Investor demand for both retail and office space continued to fall (net balances of -47% and -50% respectively). According to surveyors, investor enquiries for industrial space fell flat through the final quarter of the year.
Short-term capital value expectations also improved quarter-on-quarter whilst remaining in decline. A net balance of -22% of respondents in Wales expect a fall in overall capital values, and although this is the sixth consecutive quarter this figure remains in negative territory, this figure has improved from -40% that was seen in Q3, and -30% that was seen in Q2. Industrial is the only subsector in which a net balance of surveyors in Wales expect a rise in capital values over the next three months.
However, longer term, overall capital value expectations seem more positive according to Welsh surveyors. A net balance of -5% of respondents expect all-sector capital values to fall over the next 12 months. This is up from -38% in Q3. This is largely driven by the industrial sector though, with a net balance of 50% of Welsh respondents anticipating capital values to rise for industrial space over the next year.
Rents are anticipated to fall at all-sector level in the short-term but expectations are less negative than the previous quarter. A net balance of -11% anticipate that rents for commercial property will fall through the first quarter of 2024, compared to -25% in Q3. Industrial space continues to be the strongest subsector with a net balance of 39% of respondents expecting rents for this type of space to rise through Q1 2024. On a 12-month horizon, rental expectations are their least negative since June 2022, with a net balance of -7% of respondents. Expectations for industrial rents in a year’s time are at their highest in three quarters.
Robert James Harrison of Triang Developments Ltd in Welshpool commented: “There remains a shortage of industrial buildings for business growth in parts of Wales due to a lack of availability of development land and high construction costs.”
James Perry of Property Consultants in Cardiff added: “I predominantly deal with industrial property and whilst demand has reduced slightly over the last six months, it is still strong and outstripping supply for all but the largest properties.”
Commenting on the UK picture, RICS Senior Economist, Tarrant Parsons, said: “Current conditions remain challenging across the UK commercial property market, with investor demand still being weighed down by the tighter lending climate and uncertain outlook for values. At the same time, relatively weak momentum with respect to economic activity more generally is taking its toll on tenant demand, with the ongoing structural challenges facing parts of the office and retail sectors also hampering market sentiment. That said, the significant turnaround in expectations for monetary policy of late provide a reason for cautious optimism going forward, and the latest results do point to a more stable backdrop for credit conditions coming through this quarter.”
Business
Nolton riding stables could become new luxury wedding venue
A CALL to allow a former riding stables to keep a multi-purpose building built without permission has been allowed, but its new purpose for wedding venues will need a new application.
In an application submitted to Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, Lawson & Penny Owen of LJP Owen Ltd, through agent Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd, sought permission for a certificate of lawfulness for a multi-use building at Johns Barn, Nolton Stables, Nolton.
In application for a certificate of lawfulness allows an applicant to keep a development if they can provide proof of occupancy or use over a prolonged period.
A supporting statement said the building had been used for a variety of purposes including a meet and greet use in connection with the operation of a family-owned riding stables, for various parties and occasions including birthday parties and for expansion with weddings and wedding receptions.
It added: “Mr Lawson Owen’s grandfather, along with his sons, started the stables early 1960s and his mum and dad ran the stables from 1975. Mr Owen left school in 1995 and LJP Owen Ltd took over running the stables from 2005 (Lawson, James and Penny). There is no planning history in respect of the construction of this mainly timber building which has been designed and used since 2016 for a variety of activities within Use Class D2, nor in respect of the subsequent extension, which was added by Summer 2020 and which contains a toilet block.
“Although the multi-purpose building was constructed to act as a meet and greet centre and toilets in conjunction with the established riding school / pony trekking centre based at Nolton Stables, the first use towards the end of December 2016 was to host a family event to which over 100 guests were invited.”
It said the facility predated other ventures at the site including a horse riding experience and ‘zorbing’ and segwaying.
It said that Covid restrictions in place from 2020 “resulted in the abandonment of pony trekking and hence the sale of the horses from Nolton Stables as it was economically impractical to feed and maintain the animals, saddles etc for an extended period when there was no income,” adding: “Zorbing and segwaying also had to cease because of the associated level of social contact.”
It went on to say: “The principal use of the building is now multi-purpose with wedding venue ceremonies now popular too and subsequent reception with a number of the guests staying in holiday accommodation in and around Nolton; some of which is currently managed by the applicants or to be developed by the applicants. (An application for nine holiday units is currently awaiting validation and processing by PCNP).”
An officer report in part supported the certificate of lawfulness, but felt the current use of the barn as a wedding venue, from 2022, “is considered to be a further change of use from the equine use to a sui generis use,” with a continuous period of use of for a longer period needed for that element of the ‘lawfulness’ application.
In granting the certificate of lawfulness for the building itself and equine use, it said: “The unauthorised building has a lawful equestrian activity use and any change of use from this has not yet become lawful,” adding the use as a wedding venue would require a separate planning application.
Business
Could Primark be coming to Haverfordwest? Major retailer in talks for former Wilko site
Council confirms advanced discussions as speculation grows over high street boost
HAVERFORDWEST could soon see a major high street revival, with a national retailer in advanced talks to take over the former Wilko building in the town centre.

Pembrokeshire County Council has confirmed that negotiations are ongoing, with a deal potentially just weeks — or even days — away.
Speaking to The Herald, Deputy Leader Cllr Paul Miller said the authority is in “detailed discussions with a major national retailer” over the prominent vacant unit.
However, he declined to name the business involved, citing commercial confidentiality.
Speculation grows
Despite the secrecy, speculation has been mounting locally that clothing giant Primark could be the retailer preparing to move into the site.
The size of the former Wilko store — one of the largest retail units in the town — has led many to believe only a handful of national chains would be able to occupy the space.
When asked directly whether Primark was involved, Cllr Miller did not confirm the claim, but also did not deny it.

Work already underway
The council has taken steps to prepare the building for a new tenant following Wilko’s collapse into administration.
This includes carrying out essential structural repairs, particularly to the roof, funded through a combination of council investment and an interest-free Welsh Government town centre loan.
Cllr Miller said the aim is to deliver a “blank canvas” for a new retailer, who would then invest further in fitting out the store.
He added that any incoming tenant would likely spend “millions” preparing the unit before opening.
Boost for town centre
The arrival of a major national retailer would represent a significant boost for Haverfordwest, which has faced challenges in recent years with declining footfall and the loss of several well-known stores.
The Wilko closure left a large gap in the town centre, both physically and economically, and securing a new anchor tenant is seen as key to revitalising the high street.
If confirmed, the move could increase visitor numbers, support surrounding businesses, and help restore confidence in the town’s retail future.

Deal ‘close’
Cllr Miller indicated that negotiations are at an advanced stage.
He said: “I’d like to think we’re talking weeks, not months — maybe even days, but these things can change.”
While no formal agreement has yet been announced, the timeline suggests a decision could be imminent.
What happens next
Until a deal is formally signed, the identity of the retailer remains unconfirmed.
However, with negotiations progressing and work underway on the building, expectations are growing that a major announcement could soon follow.
For now, all eyes remain on Haverfordwest — and on whether one of the UK’s biggest retail names is about to arrive.
We have contacted Primark for a comment.

Business
Rail investment ‘could unlock 40,000 jobs and £11bn for Wales’ says new report
RAILWAY stations across Wales could help unlock around 40,000 jobs and more than £11 billion for the economy by 2036, according to new research.
A report by Development Economics, published on Monday (Mar 23), highlights how rail infrastructure is acting as a major driver of growth, supporting housing, business development, and employment across the country.
The findings suggest that development within 800 metres of railway stations alone could generate more than 40,000 jobs and contribute £11.3 billion to the Welsh economy over the next decade.

Stations driving growth
The report identifies what it calls the “rail catalyst effect”, where stations attract investment and act as hubs for regeneration.
Recent examples across Wales and the South West show the impact of rail-linked development. Over the past five years, areas around nine stations, including Carmarthen, have delivered 3,500 new homes, 67,000 square metres of commercial space, and supported 4,500 jobs.
Proposed new stations, including Cardiff Parkway and Newport West, are expected to create around 900 permanent jobs and generate £64 million annually over the next ten years.
Economic case for investment
The report comes as Wales continues to face economic challenges, with inactivity rates standing at 25.6%, higher than the UK average of 21.6%.
Researchers say continued investment in rail infrastructure will be key to boosting regional economies and improving access to jobs and opportunities.
Mark Hopwood, Managing Director of Great Western Railway, said: “The findings of this report are clear. The railway, its stations, and the trains that serve them are powerful drivers of economic growth, community prosperity and regeneration.
“Across our network, development around the railway is delivering thousands of homes, new commercial space and thousands of jobs, generating hundreds of millions of pounds in economic value for the communities we serve.”
National impact
Across the wider Great Western Railway network, stations are projected to support 238,000 jobs and generate £14.25 billion in annual economic value by 2036.
Nationally, the report suggests railway stations could support more than one million permanent jobs and contribute £78.7 billion to local and regional economies.
Wider benefits
The report also highlights the social impact of rail, particularly for households without access to a car, estimated at around one in five in Wales.
With more than 1.6 billion passenger journeys made each year across the UK rail network, the study says improved connectivity is helping people access work, education, and services more easily.
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