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Occupier demand for commercial property in Wales remains subdued

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WHILST occupier demand remains in decline, there has been improvement quarter-on-quarter
Investor and occupier demand for industrial space remains stronger than retail and office
12-month rental and capital value expectations improved markedly, driven by the industrial sector
The commercial property market in Wales remained sluggish and lacking momentum in Q4 2023, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Commercial Property Monitor. However, there were improvements on the previous quarter, and forward-looking sentiment improved markedly.

A net balance of -23% of surveyors in Wales reported a fall in occupier demand through Q4 2023, and although remaining in negative territory, this was an improvement from the -42% that was seen in Q3. Looking at each subsector, a net balance of -18% of Welsh respondents reported a fall in demand for office space, -4% for industrial and -45% for retail space. Again, these each represented less negative sentiment than in the previous quarter.

Looking at investor demand, this also improved quarter on quarter, but only marginally. A net balance of -32% of respondents in Wales reported a fall in overall investment enquiries, up from -35% the quarter previous. Investor demand for both retail and office space continued to fall (net balances of -47% and -50% respectively). According to surveyors, investor enquiries for industrial space fell flat through the final quarter of the year.

Short-term capital value expectations also improved quarter-on-quarter whilst remaining in decline. A net balance of -22% of respondents in Wales expect a fall in overall capital values, and although this is the sixth consecutive quarter this figure remains in negative territory, this figure has improved from -40% that was seen in Q3, and -30% that was seen in Q2. Industrial is the only subsector in which a net balance of surveyors in Wales expect a rise in capital values over the next three months.

However, longer term, overall capital value expectations seem more positive according to Welsh surveyors. A net balance of -5% of respondents expect all-sector capital values to fall over the next 12 months. This is up from -38% in Q3. This is largely driven by the industrial sector though, with a net balance of 50% of Welsh respondents anticipating capital values to rise for industrial space over the next year.

Rents are anticipated to fall at all-sector level in the short-term but expectations are less negative than the previous quarter. A net balance of -11% anticipate that rents for commercial property will fall through the first quarter of 2024, compared to -25% in Q3. Industrial space continues to be the strongest subsector with a net balance of 39% of respondents expecting rents for this type of space to rise through Q1 2024. On a 12-month horizon, rental expectations are their least negative since June 2022, with a net balance of -7% of respondents. Expectations for industrial rents in a year’s time are at their highest in three quarters.

Robert James Harrison of Triang Developments Ltd in Welshpool commented: “There remains a shortage of industrial buildings for business growth in parts of Wales due to a lack of availability of development land and high construction costs.”

James Perry of Property Consultants in Cardiff added: “I predominantly deal with industrial property and whilst demand has reduced slightly over the last six months, it is still strong and outstripping supply for all but the largest properties.”

Commenting on the UK picture, RICS Senior Economist, Tarrant Parsons, said: “Current conditions remain challenging across the UK commercial property market, with investor demand still being weighed down by the tighter lending climate and uncertain outlook for values. At the same time, relatively weak momentum with respect to economic activity more generally is taking its toll on tenant demand, with the ongoing structural challenges facing parts of the office and retail sectors also hampering market sentiment. That said, the significant turnaround in expectations for monetary policy of late provide a reason for cautious optimism going forward, and the latest results do point to a more stable backdrop for credit conditions coming through this quarter.”

Business

Welsh Water slammed after thousands were left without water

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DWR CYMRU has been slammed by a councillor who warned people “could have died” after thousands were left without water.

Tens of thousands of residents across the county were left without water after a mains burst at a treatment plant in Dolgarrog last week.

Welsh Water said supplies were restored to homes and businesses on Monday morning.

The chairwoman of Conwy’s finance committee slammed Dwr Cymru during a meeting at the council’s Bodlondeb HQ on Monday.

Old Colwyn councillor Cheryl Carlisle thanked volunteers and council staff for pulling together before calling for a public inquiry into the crisis.

Security guards

Cllr Carlisle claimed those in poor health had been left without water and said security guards at water stations had turned people away with small children.

“I’d like to take the time to thank everyone that’s being involved in the crisis in Conwy over the last six days, the selfless volunteers, everyone that provided water and help to the elderly and vulnerable, and also the engineers for fixing the problem and our social care staff and the other staff who have helped keep our nursing homes going, our care homes, and (looked after) the most vulnerable,” she said.

“On a different note, there will need to be an inquiry, won’t there, into the crisis response from Dwr Cymru.

“You cannot fault the engineers, but the delays in basic organisation, like setting up the water stations.

“It was 48 hours in my particular community. Without the volunteers, it would have been very, very serious, indeed, for those with health conditions.”

She added: “The priority lists of Dwr Cymru did not work.

“There were people on it that were still undelivered (not had water delivered) as was last night [Sunday], cancer patients, dialysis patients. This is completely unacceptable.

“Security guards turned away members (of the public) with little children. That was absolutely unacceptable as well.

“I think this has brought out the very best in people and, in just a few, the very worst. There needs to be a clear disaster plan going forward.”

Cllr Carlisle then insisted an inquiry was needed after Cllr Goronwy Edwards suggested a review.

She added: “I think it needs to be something more than a review, given the seriousness.

“People could have died, those with (serious health conditions). I don’t think we should downplay anything until everyone has come through this intact.”

Conwy Council leader Cllr Charlie McCoubrey also thanked those councillors and members of the public “who had gone above and beyond to look after their communities”.

He added the authority was now in a recovery phase with some households still without water and some schools affected.

“Clearly, with any major incident, questions need to be asked about could this have been prevented, was the response adequate, and what happens in the future in terms of how we coordinate things and prevent incidents like that happening again?”

Cllr McCoubrey said he was working with Welsh Government to get answers from Dwr Cymru.

Report by Richard Evans, Local Democracy Reporter

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Business

Decision due on development of buildings at Trewern Farm

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A CALL to let a 950-herd north Pembrokeshire dairy farm keep a farm shed built without permission over a decade ago is expected to be approved later this month.

In an application recommended for conditional approval at Pembrokeshire Coast National Park’s development management committee meeting of January 29, Trewern Farms Ltd is seeking permission for the retention of the agricultural building and lay down area at Trewern Farm, Felindre Farchog.

The application is part of a wider complex planning history associated with the site.

A report for Park planners says: “Trewern Farm is operated as a zero grazing style dairy farm with 304 hectares located on two separate parcels of land, one at Trewern with the remainder being at Penpedwast, adjacent to Castell Henllys. The farm has a dairy herd of approximately 950 cows.

“Trewern Farm has expanded significantly over recent years with many of the buildings and structures on site having been erected without the prior benefit of planning permission, and having since been regularised through a combination of retrospective applications and certificates of lawfulness.

“The building subject of this application is believed to have been constructed in 2014. The site currently comprises an agricultural shed immediately adjoining another shed and is used for cubicle housing.

“A slurry lagoon, silage clamps and 12 of the newer agricultural buildings are now lawful as Certificates of Lawfulness were granted for these whilst the Authority was awaiting an Environmental Impact Assessment to be submitted by the applicants for the 2015 planning application to regularise the unauthorised buildings.

“However, this is the last of the outstanding agricultural buildings which are not lawful, and an enforcement notice was served in May 2018 requiring its removal. This notice was appealed in November 2019 and is currently being held in abeyance by the Planning Inspectorate.”

It says the building referred to in the application “is described as being designed to house cattle in a series of cubicles, and forms part of a longer set of buildings running along the southern section of the farming complex,” adding: “The livestock numbers are not proposed for increase as a result of this application but will be as secured [by a planning consent] restricted to no more than 960 milking cows with 1020 maximum excluding calves.”

Local community council Nevern has previously said it has “grave concerns” about the application, asking, amongst other things, how the 960 cattle limit will be policed and important nearby woodland will be protected.

The application was previously recommended for approval at the park’s December meeting, but was deferred as not all received documentation had been published on the national park’s planning website.

The application is now returning to the January meeting, again recommended for conditional approval.

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Business

Castell Howell launches new Food Show at Welsh International Culinary Championships

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CASTELL HOWELL has launched a new Food Show, showcasing the food trends and innovations that the hospitality industry can expect to see in 2025 and giving visitors a preview of its growing range of Welsh food and drink products. 

The new industry event is taking place alongside the 2025 Welsh International Culinary Championships (WICC) at the International Conference Centre in Newport from 20-22 January.

Castell Howell managing director Matt Lewis said: “The Castell Howell Food Show will be a new highlight in this three-day celebration of Welsh culinary excellence, hospitality skills, and innovation. As the largest wholesale supplier of Welsh Food & Drink, it gives us the opportunity to champion our excellent Welsh producers, to support hospitality customers in developing their businesses and, ultimately, to help our communities and local economies throughout Wales to thrive.

“Visitors will have the unique opportunity to engage directly with Castell Howell specialists representing every aspect of our business from insights into the latest trends, to discovering what’s in the pipeline for Welsh food and drink producers in 2025,” he said.

The Castell Howell Food Show will be a new annual event in the calendar at the start of the year, serving as a preview for its larger established trade shows, hosted at Parc y Scarlets in Llanelli and Parc Eirias in Conwy. 

The Welsh International Culinary Championships, organised by the Culinary Association of Wales, bring together the nation’s most talented craft chefs, butchers, and front-of-house professionals for three days of demanding competition. The 2025 WICC also hosts the Skills Competition Wales hospitality finals, showcasing the country’s top apprentices.

Deputy First Minister, with responsibility for Climate Change and Rural Affairs, Huw Irranca-Davies, said: 

“These two events promise to be a fantastic showcase for Wales’ food and drink industry. It’s an opportunity to celebrate Wales’ culinary excellence and the strength of our hospitality sector. Castell Howell plays an important role in supporting Welsh farmers, producers and the hospitality sector – and I wish them well with this new event.” 

Further information about the event is at foodshow.wales

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