Comment
The Chancellor’s fancy footwork solves nothing
THE CONDITIONAL phrase is a friend to politicians of all parties in all governments.
At its simplest, the proposition is: “If this happens, then we might be able to do this”.
The Chancellor’s Budget on Wednesday (Mar 6) was an example of the conditional phrase on steroids.
IT ALL DEPENDS
“If this happens, then that happens, and provided these things also happen, we might be in a position to consider doing this”.
As a strategy for spending on public services, it’s nonsense.
The UK Government is not in control of events that might affect its capacity to achieve even stage one of the processes that, on some far-away date, might mean it gets close to delivering public services more efficiently.
Let’s get that out of the way, for starters.
That is quite bad enough, but the Chancellor – not alone in this fiscal fraud – goes one step further.
Mr Hunt says the UK must cut its national debt, the amount it has borrowed to pay for Covid, Liz Truss, and other disasters. That objective is noble but meaningless. The debt the UK owes will rise over the next three years. It will only fall in the fifth year of the spending cycle and then only against the previous year’s debt.
That means the amount of debt the UK is in will rise over the next half-decade.
In turn, future repayments of that debt’s capital must be met out of future government revenues. The limited number of ways that can happen include refinancing the debt (putting off the payment to the future), raising taxes, and cutting public spending: probably a mix of all three.
The disingenuous lunatics on the Conservative right-wing bang on about how it’s all the Office of Budget Responsibility’s fault. The rules on debt and fiscal policy are not the OBR’s rules. They are the Chancellor’s. The OBR applies them to the Chancellor’s spending and taxation plans.
It is rather like Harold Shipman complaining he only murdered his victims because the pharmacist supplied him with poison. The intent is all on the Chancellor’s part.
Keir Starmer claimed the Government had “maxed-out” the nation’s credit card.
He is right, but only to an extent.
The central flaw in fiscal policy is that the Treasury—and therefore the Office of Budget Responsibility—fails to distinguish between borrowing and spending for investment and borrowing and spending to deliver day-to-day services and to make up for revenue shortfalls.
As Labour has chained itself to the wheel of the current spending approach, we will have to get used to paying more for less for years to come.
Any UK Government could borrow for future investment, putting the National Debt above 100% of GDP. However, that will likely increase the cost of borrowing and devalue the assets securing the current debt, such as UK Government bonds.
The markets wouldn’t wear that when Liz Truss tried it. They won’t wear it now. Borrowing more money while cutting taxes is like taking out a £500,000 loan, leaving a well-paid job that could service it, and deciding to work three shifts a week on a filling station forecourt.
Sooner or later, the bailiffs come knocking.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The political back-and-forth is interesting only to those with little stake in the Budget’s outcome, at least as it affects average families on average incomes.
A billion here, a hundred million there. Those are empty numbers.
The bottom line matters.
The Chancellor announced a cut in National Insurance from 10% to 8%. Last year, he reduced it by 12% to 10%. Forgetting, of course, that his predecessor (Sunak, R.) increased National Insurance in the first place.
However, Mr Hunt did not increase the wage level at which National Insurance starts being paid. That means the amount by which most workers on modest or average wages benefit from an NI cut will be eaten up by any pay increases they’ve received over the last two years of high inflation.
The income tax thresholds also remain stationary, pulling more people into paying the basic rate thanks to pay increases and the increased National Minimum Wage.
It’s sleight of hand. An apparent tax cut will leave people superficially better off but no richer.
In other titbits, the Chancellor announced the continuation of the 5p levy reduction on fuel for motor vehicles and a freeze on the duty on booze.
Mr Hunt also unveiled a new tax on vaping products from October 2026, linked to the levels of nicotine they deliver. At the same time, tobacco duty will rise by £2.00 per 100 cigarettes to ensure vaping remains cheaper.
From this April, the threshold at which small businesses must register to pay VAT goes up from £85,000 to £90,000. It’s something, but not much of something, as the threshold’s been frozen for the last seven years.
Mr Hunt also scrapped tax reliefs for the owners of furnished holiday lets. Holidays let owners claim capital gains tax reliefs and plant and machinery capital allowances for items such as furniture and other fixtures. At the same time, their profits can count as earnings for pension purposes.
Abolishing that tax break will save the UK government around £250 million annually starting from April 2025.
Holiday let investors could lose an average of £2,835 a year in tax, based on a property purchase price of £350,000, an annual mortgage rate of 4.5%, and £20,000 in rental income.
PUBLIC SERVICES IN LIMBO
The constant drive for “greater efficiency” in the public sector boldly and unfoundedly assumes that public service “productivity” is the same as the private sector’s. It isn’t.
Making a pin more efficiently through the division of labour is not the same as treating a patient for cancer or collecting bins.
In all efficiency drives, the point always arrives when there are no more lightbulbs or photocopiers to turn off at night, meaning savings must be found in frontline service budgets. Mr Hunt announced plans to “digitally transform” the NHS. Fat chance. The atomisation of the NHS into trusts and boards that must compete for money by offering the most at the least cost dooms the project to expensive failure.
The same applies to local government funding and extends to Wales.
Councils competing against each other for a finite pot of resources only available to spend on what the central Government insists it is spent on negates local democracy. It favours those local authorities closest to the Central Government or with the best grants application team.
Competition for funding is no way to deliver public services and leads to vanity projects.
It is better to deliver funding fairly and through a method that ensures funding follows the need for core services.
The question is acute in Pembrokeshire.
Our Council received millions of pounds in funding for projects Pembrokeshire does not necessarily need. The money would have been better allocated to the cost of adult social care delivery. However, the UK and Welsh Governments did not make tens of millions of pounds available to meet that need. Instead, we can have money for “Instagrammable bridges” and “transport hubs” because we won a prize in a competition with other broke local authorities to build things we don’t need.
It’s nonsense. And, at heart, every county councillor knows it is.
Any elected representative (whether councillor, MP, or MS) who doesn’t is unfit for public office.
EDITORIAL BY COUNTY COUNCILLOR ALAN DENNISON
A RECENTLY published Herald article stated: “This is the first time in the council’s history that an administration has accepted a budget proposed by an opposition group.”
This milestone should encourage a shift away from the routine party political manoeuvres that often dominate council discussions. More importantly, it serves as a reminder to the Leader that listening should extend beyond the largest opposition group and council members—it should prioritise the residents of Pembrokeshire who fund these positions and expect quality services at a fair cost. The days of expecting ratepayers to finance unnecessary projects are coming to an end.
Budget criticism and optimism
While the budget has faced public criticism for failing to provide sufficient relief, leading to increased burdens on taxpayers and service reductions, much of this criticism is valid. The budget was crafted within a limited timeframe, but it does offer a sense of hope—the first in years where services are being restored, including those cut last year and those earmarked for cuts by the current administration. The details of these services are available in the accompanying documents, but the budget ensures their implementation with minimal risk.
This budget also marks the first phase in a long-term effort to strengthen the council’s financial standing. Moving forward, highly paid cabinet members will be expected to set annual objectives and provide monthly updates on their progress, particularly regarding departmental savings. Budgets must not be allowed to accumulate unchecked, as they have within social services, without accountability from the responsible cabinet member. Furthermore, the council must disclose full costs and revenues for the services it provides.
Future priorities and efficiency measures
For the 2025/26 financial year, priority should be given to Invest to Save initiatives, asset management, and reviewing loss-making services. The council can no longer afford unnecessary expenses, such as company car payments for senior positions, or the excessive number of high-paying roles. A job review should be conducted to streamline senior management as positions become vacant.
Exploring resource-sharing with other authorities is another avenue worth pursuing. For instance, the ambulance service could share vehicle maintenance facilities, reducing costs by pooling resources for preferential fuel rates and insurance. Additionally, offering pet cremation services at Narberth could create a new revenue stream. Numerous such opportunities await identification.
Closer collaboration with Hywel Dda University Health Board could lead to improvements in social services, while shared back-office functions—such as road sweepers, grit lorries, and highway maintenance—could reduce costs. Savings from these efficiencies should be ring-fenced to fund apprenticeships in mechanics, office administration, public protection, and other hard-to-fill positions.
A comparison with the Tory budget proposal
This budget and its savings proposals were developed by the Independent group. But how does it compare to the alternative budget proposed by the Tories? Cllr Thomas has condemned the accepted budget, referring to his “team”—though it remains unclear who is in this team that will supposedly rescue the county from financial difficulties. What does their budget contain? A collection of Fumbling Ifs & Buts, or FIBs for short.
Leisure services: the reality behind the proposal
The Tory budget proposes restructuring leisure services by transferring operations to a not-for-profit company, Freedom Leisure, owned by Wealden Leisure Ltd. Their chief officer earned £190,000 last year, with other directors receiving between £120,000 and £160,000. While the company claims to be non-profit, its approach to cost-cutting is clear—higher charges for pools, gyms, and halls, reduced heating in pools, scaled-back cleaning, and malfunctioning booking systems. Trustpilot, a respected review site, rates Freedom Leisure poorly, with 83% of reviews at one star, citing these exact cost-cutting measures. Do we really want to see Pembrokeshire’s leisure centres suffer the same fate? FIB number 1.
Selling council properties: a vague promise
The Tory budget includes plans to sell off council properties—but which ones? What are their values? How quickly can they be sold? These unknowns render this another FIB.
Housing and efficiency cuts
The proposal also plans to stop funding the Affordable Housing Reserve next year to support a headline council tax rate of 7.5%. Future reductions are subject to an annual review—another uncertain FIB.
Furthermore, the Tories suggest increasing the Chief Executive’s efficiency savings target by £200,000, raising it to £1.5 million. However, even they acknowledge this may not be achievable, planning to use reserves to cover any shortfall. A surefire FIB.
A proposed review of the regeneration department aims to save £250,000, but since this is not guaranteed, reserves will again be used as a backup. Another 100% FIB.
Scrapping the Enhancing Pembrokeshire grant scheme
One concrete element of the Tory budget is the complete removal of the Enhancing Pembrokeshire grant scheme, which funds community improvement projects. Unlike their other claims, this is not a FIB—but it does mean fewer opportunities for local communities to access funding.
The reality of Tory cuts
While the Tories claim to oppose service reductions, their budget includes more cuts than the Independent group’s proposal. These include:
- Eliminating social care assessment staff.
- Cutting revenue and benefits staff—the very people responsible for rent collection.
- Reducing equipment budgets for children with physical and sensory needs.
- Scaling back street cleaning, grass cutting, and litter bins, leading to more litter and overgrown public areas.
- Slashing early years education funding, undermining statutory obligations under the Childcare Act 2006.
- Closing Thornton Sports Hall for community use.
The choice for Pembrokeshire
The decision before the council is clear: a carefully costed budget from the Independent group, supported by the current administration, or a budget based on FIBs and deeper service cuts. Pembrokeshire’s future depends on making the right choice.
“Ukraine is fighting not just for its own freedom, but for the principles of democracy and justice that should unite us all”, says Herald Editor, Tom Sinclair
THERE are moments in history when leaders define themselves—not just by what they say, but by how they treat others. On Friday (Feb 28), in a shocking display of arrogance and ignorance, President Donald Trump showed the world precisely what kind of leader he is. In an extraordinary and disgraceful diplomatic blunder, Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to leave the White House, cutting short a meeting that was meant to strengthen ties between the two nations. Instead of supporting a country fighting for its survival, Trump chose to humiliate its leader.
This was not just a moment of political theatre; it was an insult to every Ukrainian citizen suffering under Russia’s brutal invasion, to every soldier defending their homeland, and to every nation that has stood up against tyranny.
For all his bluster about “making America great,” Trump’s latest act proves yet again that he does not understand the difference between strength and bullying. A strong leader stands by their allies. A weak leader turns their back when it’s convenient. A strong leader understands diplomacy. A weak leader throws a tantrum when things don’t go their way.
Trump’s dismissive attitude towards Ukraine is a betrayal of not just one nation but of democratic values themselves. Under his administration, the White House has become a revolving door of diplomatic disasters, with world leaders leaving insulted and America’s reputation in tatters. Instead of standing up to Vladimir Putin—the aggressor responsible for this war—Trump appears more interested in undermining Ukraine at every turn. His words and actions send a dangerous message: that the United States is no longer a reliable ally, and that dictators can act with impunity.
Unlike Trump and his administration, the people of Pembrokeshire have demonstrated true solidarity with Ukraine. When Russia launched its unprovoked invasion, our community stepped up. Five vans filled with essential supplies were sent directly to those in need, organised by The Pembrokeshire Herald and backed by the incredible generosity of local people. Our firefighters have sent vital equipment to help their Ukrainian counterparts. Across our county, individuals and businesses have raised money, collected aid, and stood in unwavering support of Ukraine’s right to defend itself.
We do this because we understand something Trump never will: that integrity, compassion, and standing up for what’s right matter more than self-serving political games. Pembrokeshire knows that Ukraine is fighting not just for its own freedom, but for the principles of democracy and justice that should unite us all.
History teaches us that bullies never win. Whether it’s on the playground or the world stage, those who use power to intimidate and belittle eventually face their reckoning. Trump’s pathetic treatment of Ukraine will not be forgotten. The world is watching, and America’s allies are taking note. The bonds between democratic nations will not be broken by one man’s petulance.
The Pembrokeshire Herald remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine. We stand with President Zelenskyy. We stand with the Ukrainian people. And we stand with all those who believe that democracy, freedom, and justice must prevail over the cowardice and corruption of those who would rather appease tyrants.
Trump’s disgraceful behaviour will be remembered for what it is: a moment of shame. But the bravery of Ukraine and the solidarity of those who support it will be remembered for what it represents: hope, resilience, and the undeniable truth that justice will triumph in the end.
Is AI ready to blow, or is that just the sheep talking?
WELL, my dear Pembrokeshire pals, the digital world is more fired up than a dragon on curry night, thanks to the arrival of DeepSeek R1, the Chinese AI that’s apparently set to give Silicon Valley a proper wake-up call. Imagine trying to tame a wild rugby match—it’s that level of chaos in the tech world right now.
DeepSeek R1 has all the brains of the best AI models but costs less to run than a sheepdog on leftovers. This clever little system can do everything from solving complex maths problems to writing software code—and it’s doing it on a budget so small, even Dai down the pub would raise an eyebrow.
Now, let’s make sense of the panic. Silicon Valley, home to all those American tech giants, has been happily chucking money at AI projects like a kid in an arcade. But along comes DeepSeek R1, built with brains and thriftiness, and suddenly, the Americans are as flustered as someone who’s just learned they’ve put the bara brith in the oven without any raisins.
There’s talk of this AI revolutionizing everything, but don’t go thinking it’ll do your Tesco shop for you just yet. These systems are powerful, yes, but they’re also unpredictable. Like a sheepdog that’s great with the flock but refuses to fetch the stick, AI can be brilliantly useful—until it’s not.
And here’s a tidbit for you tech-curious folks: the real excitement isn’t just about what this AI can do, but how it was built. DeepSeek’s team has shown you don’t need a dragon’s hoard to make magic happen—just a lot of smarts and a touch of daring. It’s a lesson for all of us: sometimes, it’s not about having more, but using what you’ve got wisely. (Although, let’s be honest, that approach doesn’t work for rugby teams. More muscle is always better there.)
So, should we be worried? Probably not. Should we be paying attention? Absolutely. Because whether we like it or not, AI is here to stay, and it’s shaping up to be as much a part of our lives as tea and Welsh cakes.
Until next time, remember: always back up your files and never trust a computer that doesn’t understand rugby scores.
Yours digitally,
Professor Barry Davis
(Geek, proud Welshman, and occasional biscuit dunker)
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