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Poll predicts narrow Labour win for Mid-South Pembrokeshire seat

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THE NEW general election seat of Mid and South Pembrokeshire is expected to see a narrow Labour win over the Conservatives, against a projected landslide win for Keir Starmer nationally, in what is a now a six-way local battle for your vote.

As part of constituency changes, Pembrokeshire’s seats of Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, are now no more.

As part of the changes, bits of north Pembrokeshire – including St Davids and– are joining the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency.

Other parts of the north of the county are now in the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency; areas including Fishguard, Crymych and Maenclochog joining with Ceredigion.

With a July 4 date set for the general election, the currently declared candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Welsh Liberal Democrat Alistair Cameron, with Stephen Crabb for the Conservatives, Stuart Marchant for Reform UK, James Purchase for the Green Party, Cris Tomos for Plaid Cymru, and Henry Tufnell for Labour.

Global public opinion and data company YouGov is predicting Labour’s Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street with a historic majority of 194 seats, a central projection of 422 Labour wins, which would be bigger than Tony Blair’s 1997 victory, and the second largest majority in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s figure of 210 in 1924.

With the new boundary changes Wales will be dropping from 40 seats to 32 seats after the general election, and YouGov’s model has Labour winning 28 of them.

YouGov’s figures for the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat predict a Labour win, with 42.6 percent of the vote, followed by Conservatives on 33.4, Reform 9.4, Plaid Cymru 7.4, Liberal Democrats 3.6, and Green 2.8.

Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates have previously outlined why you should have their vote.

Green candidate James Purchase was walking the long-distance pilgrim trail to Santiago de Compostela in Spain when the election was declared.

“I, James Purchase, was eating a pilgrim’s meal with my wife, Carolyn, when I heard someone mumble in Spanish something about ‘Sunak’ – whilst pointing at their phone and looking at us.

“We are walking the long-distance pilgrim trail to Santiago de Compostela in Spain and our fellow peregrines knew us to be from Walesland!

“I immediately guessed what was afoot and my online news feed confirmed my horror. I feel certain that Rishi Sunak waited until I was out of the country before calling the election! What other reason could there be – as everyone said it would be an Autumn election?

“However, his plan has been foiled as we have an excellent Pembrokeshire Green Party Committee looking after things whilst I’m away and I shall be back as fast as my little legs will carry me … literally!”

Plaid’s Cris Tomos, a former county councillor and north county community activist, said: “I will be focussing my campaign on how greater powers can be given to communities and neighbourhoods to address local employment, energy and home building opportunities and develop neighbourhood plans to support carers and those affected by the spiralling day to day expenses and cost of living .

“There needs to be a fundamental change in British politics, a new vision of economic focus on communities and supporting small and medium size businesses within those neighbourhoods. We need to ensure communities can support and scrutinise development such as harmful waste processing sites in their neighbourhood and have the final say when harmful developments can be permanently blocked, such as the waste site in Withyhedge.”

Reform UK has been contacted for a picture and statement for its candidate, Stuart Marchant.

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20mph limit in Wales – one year on, the debate intensifies

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AS Wales marks the one-year anniversary of the introduction of the 20mph speed limit on residential roads, the policy continues to stir controversy.

Initially rolled out by the Labour government with the intention of improving road safety, the reduced speed limit has faced both criticism and support from various quarters, with ongoing debate about its effectiveness and economic impact.

Welsh Conservative Shadow Transport Minister Natasha Asghar has been vocal in her criticism of the policy, calling it a “disastrous 20mph rollout.” She emphasised that despite widespread public dissent, including the largest petition in the Senedd’s history and predictions of a £9 billion impact on the Welsh economy, the government has been reluctant to reconsider the policy. Asghar reiterated the Conservative stance: “Scrap the £33m scheme altogether, only have 20mph in high footfall areas and get Wales moving again.”

The policy has not only faced political opposition but also a significant public backlash. A petition against the default 20mph limit garnered nearly half a million signatures, highlighting the extent of dissatisfaction among the Welsh public. Additionally, there has been a reported rise in offences related to the new speed limit, with many motorists finding the varying speed limits confusing.

The 20mph speed limits have been welcomed by some, such as these St Dogmaels residents (Pic: Herald)

Labour’s Eluned Morgan has acknowledged the policy’s challenges, admitting that the blanket implementation of the 20mph speed limits had caused problems. She indicated that the government recognises that some roads may need to revert to 30mph, and a review is currently underway. The First Minister recently acknowledged that through roads with 20mph limits had been causing the most frustration among the public, and it is now up to local councils to address these concerns.

Lee Waters, the former transport minister who introduced the policy, defended it, stating that reduced speeds have led to fewer accidents and saved lives. However, he conceded that the rollout could have been better executed, citing insufficient public awareness and preparation for such a significant change.

Despite the criticisms, recent figures indicate a positive trend in road safety, with injuries on 20mph and 30mph roads falling by a third in the final quarter of last year. Furthermore, insurer esure reported a 20% drop in accidental damage claims from Welsh customers following the implementation of the 20mph limit, resulting in reduced insurance premiums for Welsh drivers. If this trend were applied across the UK, it could result in a significant economic benefit, with potential savings of approximately £50 per policy, amounting to £1.4 billion nationwide.

The First Minister recently acknowledged that through roads with 20mph limits had been causing the most frustration among the public

The introduction of the 20mph speed limit has also affected events such as the Junior Tour of Wales cycling race, which had to be shortened and rerouted due to the new speed regulations. This has prompted criticism from Conservative figures who argue that such policies should not negatively impact sporting events and other activities.

Natasha Asghar further commented on the need for a “common-sense approach” to active travel, highlighting that while promoting walking and cycling is important, the current strategy of pushing people out of cars through measures like the 20mph limit is not practical or effective.

The Welsh government’s decision to make 20mph the default speed limit in built-up areas has sparked a complex debate, balancing road safety against public opinion and economic concerns. With a review in progress and ongoing discussions, the future of the 20mph policy in Wales remains uncertain. Whether the government will make adjustments or hold firm in its commitment to reduced speed limits will likely continue to be a point of contention in Welsh politics.

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Welsh Conservatives demand vote in Senedd to save winter fuel payments

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THE Welsh Conservatives have forced a vote in the Senedd, urging the UK Government to reverse its decision to end universal winter fuel payments. This move comes amidst growing concern that the UK Labour Government’s policy change will have a severe impact on pensioners across Wales. Approximately 400,000 Welsh households, including 540,000 pensioners, are expected to miss out on payments of up to £300 this winter.

Jane Hutt MS, the Welsh Government’s Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Culture, Trefnydd, and Chief Whip, outlined the potential consequences of this decision in response to a written question by Welsh Conservative Leader, Andrew RT Davies MS. Hutt emphasised that the withdrawal of the universal winter fuel payments could push some pensioners into fuel poverty, raising alarms about the wellbeing of Wales’ elderly population.

In the Senedd session on 18th July 2024, the Welsh Conservatives tabled a motion calling on the UK Government to reconsider its stance on the universal winter fuel payment. Welsh Labour Members of the Senedd (MSs) are set to vote on this motion, which could determine whether the payment scheme will be reinstated.

Ahead of the debate, Andrew RT Davies MS, Leader of the Welsh Conservatives, urged Labour MSs to prioritise the interests of their constituents over party allegiance. “This debate is a chance for Labour MSs to show that they have the courage to put their constituents’ interests before their party interests,” Davies stated. “The Welsh Conservatives will not stop fighting to keep pensioners warm this winter.”

Joel James MS, the Welsh Conservative Shadow Minister for Social Partnership and Social Justice, echoed these sentiments, condemning the decision to scrap winter fuel payments. “Labour’s shameful decision to scrap winter fuel payments risks creating a fuel poverty crisis among pensioners in Wales,” he said. “In the Senedd this week, I look forward to bringing forward our Welsh Conservative debate calling on the UK Government to reverse their decision to end the universal winter fuel payment.”

The decision to cut winter fuel payments has also drawn criticism from Age Cymru. Chief Executive Victoria Lloyd expressed concern about the impact on vulnerable pensioners. “Age Cymru firmly believe that cutting the winter fuel payment this winter, with virtually no notice and no compensatory measures to protect poor and vulnerable pensioners, is the wrong decision,” Lloyd stated. “People have been sharing with us how they’ll struggle this winter without the winter fuel payment. We have heard from people who have long-term health conditions who need to have a warm home and will need to cut back on food to ensure that their homes are warm.”

The motion submitted by the Welsh Conservatives reads:

To propose that the Senedd:

  1. Expresses deep concern that around 400,000 households in Wales will lose up to £300 per person after the UK Government’s decision to end the universal Winter Fuel Payment.
  2. Notes the Welsh Government’s Cabinet Secretary for Culture and Social Justice, Trefnydd and Chief Whip’s response to WQ93698 where she stated that the UK Government’s decision to end the Winter Fuel Payment will risk pushing some pensioners into fuel poverty.
  3. Calls on the UK Government to reverse their decision to end the universal Winter Fuel Payment.

The outcome of this vote could significantly affect the financial stability and wellbeing of Welsh pensioners this winter.

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Welsh Government ‘should focus beyond affordable homes’ to tackle housing crisis

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A NEW report by leading planning and development consultancy Lichfields calls for a more comprehensive housing strategy in Wales.

Whilst efforts to increase the supply of low-carbon social housing are commendable, Lichfields’ analysis reveals that this narrow approach misses the larger picture.

The Welsh Government’s current focus on affordable housing alone will not solve the deepening housing crisis, which requires a more holistic strategy that addresses both supply and demand factors.

The report, titled “Affordable housing in Wales: Does more of less really mean more?” highlights that the key to improving housing affordability lies in expanding overall housing delivery, not just affordable homes.

It identifies several barriers to achieving the Welsh Government’s target of 20,000 low-carbon social housing homes by 2026. Current efforts, which focus too specifically on delivering subsidised rental homes, do not address the underlying shortage of total housing supply, which remains the primary contributor to the housing crisis. Lichfields’ analysis shows that expanding overall housing delivery would not only increase the supply of affordable homes but also enhance the viability of broader housing goals.

Rhiannon Harrop-Griffiths, a planner at Lichfields and co-author of the report, said: “Our findings show a need for a shift in strategy. By increasing the overall housing stock, the Welsh Government can both increase the stock of affordable housing and improve affordability across all sectors, making housing more accessible to a wider range of people.

“Simply focusing on low carbon social rent in isolation risks perpetuating the shortage of homes across all tenures. A more holistic approach that balances the need for social and affordable housing with private market housing would not only help meet the diverse needs of Welsh communities but also stimulate economic growth through job creation and rebalance communities where young families are excluded from the housing market.”

Key recommendations from the report include adopting a more robust methodology in identifying future need for both affordable and market housing, facilitating higher levels of private sector housing delivery in recognition of its role in providing affordable housing, and revising housing requirements in Local Development Plans to more accurately identify future levels of housing need. The report also calls for greater collaboration between public and private sectors to overcome viability challenges and support sustainable housing growth.

Gareth Williams, a Senior Director at Lichfields, added: “Our research shows that a restrictive definition of affordable housing and a lack of focus on broader housing delivery are hindering progress. By widening the scope to include different housing types and market dynamics, the Welsh Government can better balance supply and demand, ultimately alleviating pressure on the housing market.”

The full report can be downloaded and read here: https://lichfields.uk/content/insights/affordable-housing-in-wales

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