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Polls reveal political opinion divides across Pembrokeshire, and UK

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A NEW poll has revealed significant regional disparities in political engagement and trust across the UK, with a particular focus on Wales. The survey, conducted by Times Radio, and which sampled over 4,000 adults, highlights a growing disconnect between national politicians and local communities as the nation approaches the 2024 General Election.

Londoners emerged as the most politically informed group, with 67% of respondents feeling well-informed about national politics. The capital also boasts the highest proportion of residents considering a career in politics, with 9% willing to become MPs. This contrasts sharply with the West Midlands, where only 4% share this aspiration.

An overwhelming 73% of UK respondents believe Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party fail to grasp local political issues. Labour leader Keir Starmer fares slightly better, but still, 57% feel he is out of touch with local concerns. In the North East, distrust in Sunak’s understanding of local issues peaks at 86%, while 69% in the East Midlands share this sentiment.

The survey revealed that 61% of the British public feel well-informed about national politics. Londoners (67%) and residents of Yorkshire and the Humber (62%) feel the best informed, contrasting sharply with the East Midlands, where only 53% feel similarly knowledgeable.

A notable 39% of respondents believe they could perform better than current politicians. Men are more likely than women to consider entering politics, with 10% of men versus 3% of women contemplating a run for MP. The survey also found that 10% of respondents would consider running for local office.

The survey identified the top challenges for politicians, with 47% of respondents citing the responsibility of making impactful decisions as the greatest burden. Additionally, 35% mentioned facing abuse, and 28% highlighted the difficulty of making ethical decisions. A small minority (17%) believe there are no real challenges in political leadership.

Focusing on Wales, a significant 38% of respondents believe they could personally do a better job than most current politicians. This sentiment reflects a high level of political discontent and a desire for change. When it comes to understanding Welsh political issues, respondents in Wales have double the confidence in Keir Starmer and the Labour Party (24%) over Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party (12%). The majority of Welsh people feel well-informed about UK politics (61%) and over a third (39%) feel well-informed about Welsh politics. 40% of Welsh people said they often discuss political issues with friends and family.

The upcoming general election for the newly established Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat is expected to be closely contested. Currently, the main candidates are Stephen Crabb for the Conservatives, Henry Tufnell for Labour, and Alistair Cameron for the Welsh Liberal Democrats. Polling data suggests a potential narrow victory for Labour, with YouGov’s model indicating that Labour might secure 42.6% of the vote compared to 33.4% for the Conservatives. This prediction aligns with broader trends and demographic analyses suggesting a shift towards Labour in this new constituency.

The new boundaries combine areas from the former Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire seats, potentially altering traditional voting patterns. Historical voting data from the areas incorporated into this new constituency show mixed support, with some wards previously leaning Conservative but now predicted to favour Labour. Given these factors, Labour appears to have a slight edge, but the race remains competitive and subject to change as the election approaches.

These findings underscore the complexities and demands of political leadership in the current climate, as well as the disconnect with local communities.

The full survey results, conducted by YouGov Plc, involved 4,092 adults between 31st May and 4th June 2024. For more details on the findings, visit Times Radio.

 

Crime

Teen denies attempted murder of Milford Haven teacher

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TEENAGER REMANDED AHEAD OF JULY TRIAL

A 15-YEAR-old boy has denied attempting to murder a teacher during a stabbing incident at Milford Haven School.

The teenager, who cannot be identified for legal reasons, appeared at Swansea Crown Court on Friday (May 8).

He pleaded not guilty to attempted murder, causing grievous bodily harm with intent, and unlawful wounding with a knife.

The charges relate to an incident at Milford Haven School on Thursday, February 5, when emergency services were called after reports that a teacher had been assaulted by a pupil carrying a weapon.

The school was placed into lockdown and pupils were later safely evacuated.

The injured teacher was taken to hospital with stab wounds, but was discharged later the same day.

Police said at the time that specialist officers were supporting the victim and the wider school community.

The teenager was remanded in custody following Friday’s hearing.

A trial is due to begin on July 6.

 

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No overall majority in the Senedd: What happens next?

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By Owen Venables

WALES is facing a new political reality after the latest Senedd election produced no overall majority, leaving parties preparing for negotiations that could shape the next Welsh Government.

Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party following major gains across Wales, while Reform UK recorded a significant breakthrough and Labour suffered its worst Senedd result since devolution began in 1999. However, despite Plaid’s success, the party fell short of the numbers needed to govern alone.

Under the Senedd’s expanded system, 49 seats are required for an outright majority in the 96-seat chamber. No party reached that threshold, meaning Wales has entered a hung Senedd.

This is the first time since devolution that Labour has failed to emerge as the largest party in the Welsh Parliament. The scale of Labour’s losses was further underlined by the defeat of First Minister Eluned Morgan, who lost her own Senedd seat before announcing she would step down as leader of Welsh Labour.

Since the creation of the Senedd in 1999, Labour has either governed alone or led every Welsh administration, sometimes through coalition agreements or cooperation deals with smaller parties.

Attention will now turn to what happens behind closed doors over the coming days.

The most likely immediate step is talks between parties to determine whether a formal coalition government can be formed. Plaid Cymru, as the largest party, will almost certainly have the first opportunity to attempt to form a government, with party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth expected to begin discussions with other parties and independents.

One possible outcome is a coalition agreement involving smaller progressive parties such as the Greens or Liberal Democrats. Another possibility is a confidence-and-supply arrangement, where smaller parties agree to support a government on key votes, such as budgets and confidence motions, without formally entering government themselves.

Labour’s reduced numbers may still leave the party influential despite its heavy losses. In previous Senedd terms, Labour has governed through cooperation agreements, including its 2021 deal with Plaid Cymru. Some political figures may favour cross-party cooperation again in order to provide stability and prevent repeated deadlock votes in the chamber.

Reform UK’s strong performance also changes the political arithmetic significantly. Although the party is unlikely to be part of any governing coalition, its rise means it could become a powerful opposition force within the Senedd. Reform’s gains in former Labour strongholds reflect wider political changes already seen across parts of England, where support for traditional parties has weakened.

If no stable agreement can be reached, the Senedd would continue holding votes to elect a First Minister. Under Welsh parliamentary rules, if no First Minister is successfully appointed within 28 days, another election could potentially be triggered.

The coming days are therefore likely to be dominated by negotiations, compromise and political pressure as parties attempt to determine who can command enough support to govern.

While the election has reshaped Welsh politics, the biggest takeaway is that the era of automatic Labour dominance in Wales has come to an end, and the Senedd is now entering one of the most politically unpredictable periods in its history.

 

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Catastrophe for Labour as Plaid and Reform reshape Welsh politics

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ELUNED MORGAN LOSES SEAT AS OLD CERTAINTIES ARE SWEPT AWAY

THE VOTERS of Wales have delivered one of the most dramatic results in the history of devolution, sweeping Labour from power and handing Plaid Cymru a clear path towards forming the next Welsh Government.

After more than a quarter of a century of Labour dominance in Cardiff Bay, the party has been reduced to just nine seats in the Senedd, with its support collapsing across its traditional heartlands.

The final seat tally was:

  • Plaid Cymru – 43
  • Reform UK – 34
  • Labour – 9
  • Conservatives – 7
  • Greens – 2
  • Liberal Democrats – 1

Plaid Cymru is now by far the largest party in the new Welsh Parliament and is expected to seek to form the next government, either as a minority administration or with support from other parties.

Reform UK, which had been tipped to make major gains, finished in second place with 34 seats, an extraordinary breakthrough which places it ahead of Labour and the Conservatives.

But while Reform’s rise is one of the major stories of the election, the biggest political earthquake is Labour’s near-total collapse.

Claire Archibold and Paul Marr, who both won seats for Reform UK

The party, which has led every Welsh Government since devolution began, was gutted in the Valleys, south-east Wales, rural Wales and key urban centres.

First Minister Eluned Morgan’s defeat in Ceredigion Penfro will dominate the headlines. Her loss marks a stunning personal and political blow, with Labour failing to win a seat in the new six-member constituency.

In the same constituency, Conservative Paul Davies was returned, while fellow Conservative Samuel Kurtz narrowly missed out. Kurtz later issued an emotional statement saying it had been an “absolute honour and pleasure” to serve as a Member of the Senedd.

He wrote: “That’s the way the cookie crumbles, folks.

“What an absolute honour and pleasure it has been to serve as your Member of the Senedd.”

He said he was pleased Paul Davies had been re-elected, adding: “I owe him so much, and I wouldn’t have been able to do this job without his support and guidance.”

Kurtz thanked his family, staff and supporters, saying he had loved “every single second” of the job.

He added: “So for now, it’s so long. But I don’t think it’s farewell.”

Emotional goodbye: Paul Davies with Sam Kurtz, who was not re-elected for the Conservatives

Labour’s humiliation was not confined to west Wales.

Senior backbencher Alun Davies lost his seat after twenty years in the Welsh Parliament, while Huw Irranca-Davies, Eluned Morgan’s Deputy, clung on in sixth place in Afan Ogwr Rhondda.

Former Labour minister Sarah Murphy also only just survived in Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg.

In Carmarthenshire, Labour failed to return a single representative, with Plaid Cymru and Reform splitting the seats between them.

In Swansea Gower, Mike Hedges was the only Labour MS to survive, while Plaid took three seats and Reform claimed the remainder.

Ken Skates also clung on to the sixth seat in Flint Wrexham, where Reform and Plaid both took two seats.

The scale of Labour’s defeat was underlined by its failure to win a single seat in Caerffili and Blaenau Gwent, and by its reduction to two seats in Cardiff, where Plaid Cymru now has more MSs than it has ever had city councillors.

Labour returned just one candidate in Pontypridd and Newport, and only two in Torfaen, once regarded as a nailed-on Labour area.

Reform’s strongest gains came in the Valleys and south-east Wales, but the party also cut into Conservative support across rural, mid and north Wales.

The Conservatives finished on seven seats, a result which leaves them badly squeezed between Reform on one side and Plaid Cymru on the other.

The count in Ceredigion Penfro

The Greens won two seats, both in Cardiff constituencies. While the result gives the party its first real Senedd breakthrough, it falls well short of the more optimistic projections during the campaign.

Jane Dodds remains the sole Liberal Democrat in the Welsh Parliament.

Labour’s final humiliation came in Gwynedd Maldwyn, the last seat to declare, where the party finished fifth, behind Plaid Cymru, Reform, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Plaid took four seats there, with Reform winning two.

In her concession speech, Eluned Morgan said the “wind of change” had blown across Wales.

For Labour, that wind has swept away the old certainties.

 

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