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Unpaid carers could swing election in Mid & South Pembs, says charity

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UNPAID carers have the power to swing 185 constituencies at the General Election, charity Carers Trust warns

Analysis from UK charity Carers Trust shows there are enough unpaid carers in 185 constituencies to potentially swing each of those seats at this week’s General Election, including in Mid and South Pembrokeshire.

There are 185 seats in England and Wales where the number of carers is higher than the current MP’s majority. They include many seats held by key figures in all parties. Amon them are the Conservatives’ former leader Iain Duncan Smith and Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Deputy Leader Angela Rayner, and Lib Dems Daisy Cooper and Tim Farron.

In the new Mid & South Pembrokeshire constituency there are 10,222 carers and Stephen Crabb’s majority at the last election in 2019 was 8621, although remember at the last election we had the differently configured seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire.

A total of 96 constituencies currently held by the Conservatives could be swung by carer votes. This includes Chingford and Woodford Green where Iain Duncan Smith has a 1,604 majority in a seat with 8,225 carers. Alex Chalk’s 1,421 majority in Cheltenham could also face a threat from 6,871 carers.

In all, 83 Labour-held constituencies could see their majority overturned by carer votes. Angela Rayner has a 4,689 vote majority in Ashton-under-Lyne, a constituency of 8,517 carers. Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves is contesting the new seat of Leeds West and Pudsey which has 7,783 carers and an estimated 2019 majority of 2,963.

Carers Trust has warned that, although there are an estimated seven million unpaid carers in the UK, they have been largely ignored by most political parties during the election campaign. Many carers are looking after ill or disabled family and friends because of the crisis facing social care. Yet the social care system has also been largely absent from election debates so far. If parties are serious about tackling the social care crisis, they will need support from unpaid carers. In return, those carers need more support themselves.

Dominic Carter, Carers Trust’s Director of Policy and Public Affairs, said: “Many carers have been plunged into pverty because of their caring role and are picking up the pieces left by a social care system that’s been starved of investment. These figures show that, although carers have been largely ignored this election, they have the power to swing huge numbers of seats across the country on July 4.

“At Carers Trust we are calling on all parties to make sure carers are no longer pushed to breaking point and are properly supported, including overhauling Carer’s Allowance – the lowest benefit of its kind. It’s not too late for parliamentary candidates to start listening to those calls. If they don’t, they could be punished at the ballot box.”

The largest majority under threat from carer power is Blackpool North and Fleetwood, where the Conservatives’ 10,119 majority for Paul Maynard could be wiped out by 10,233 carers. Seats with majorities of over 8,500 like Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, Harrow East, Enfield North and Pontypridd are also at risk if carers vote against the incumbent.

Elsewhere, carer votes could also make the difference in marginals like Burnley, Leigh & Atherton and Wimbledon.

More than 1.5 million people in England and Wales provide at least 50 hours of care a week, with huge implications for their finances, health and future prospects. A survey by Carers Trust last year found just 55% of carers say they get the support they need, while 41% said the time they spent caring has increased. Despite this, there has not been a UK Government plan for carers since 2020 and the last cross-government Carers Strategy expired six years ago.

Carer power: The 10 biggest majorities at risk from carer votes

Seat

2019 majority

Number of carers

Incumbent MP

Party

Blackpool North and Fleetwood

10119

10233

Paul Maynard

Conservative

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

9091

9677

Fay Jones (Brecon and Radnorshire)

Conservative

Harrow East

8987

9219

Bob Blackman

Conservative

Enfield North

8853

9258

Feryal Clark

Labour

Pontypridd

8798

9944

Alex Davies-Jones

Labour

Corby and East Northamptonshire

8676

8895

Tom Pursglove (Corby)

Conservative

Mid and South Pembrokeshire

8621

10222

Stephen Crabb (Preseli Pembrokeshire

Conservative

Taunton and Wellington

8536

8763

Rebecca Pow (Taunton Deane)

Conservative

South Ribble

8515

8664

Katherine Fletcher

Conservative

Neath and Swansea East

8451

10961

Christina Rees (Neath)

Labour

Health

Resident doctors in Wales vote to accept new contract

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RESIDENT doctors across Wales have voted to accept a new contract, with 83% of those who took part in a referendum backing the agreement, according to BMA Cymru Wales.

The contract includes a four per cent additional investment in the resident doctor workforce and introduces a range of reforms aimed at improving training conditions, wellbeing and long-term workforce sustainability within NHS Wales. The BMA says the deal also supports progress towards pay restoration, which remains a central issue for doctors.

Key changes include new safeguards to limit the most fatiguing working patterns, measures intended to address medical unemployment and career progression concerns, and reforms to study budgets and study leave to improve access to training opportunities.

Negotiations between the BMA’s Welsh Resident Doctors Committee, NHS Wales Employers and the Welsh Government concluded earlier this year. Following a consultation period, a referendum of resident doctors and final-year medical students in Wales was held, resulting in a clear majority in favour of the proposals.

Welsh Resident Doctors Committee chair Dr Oba Babs Osibodu said the agreement marked a significant step forward for doctors working in Wales.

He said: “We’re proud to have negotiated this contract, which offers our colleagues and the future generation of doctors safer terms of service, fairer pay, and better prospects so that they can grow and develop their careers in Wales.

“This contract will help to retain the doctors already in training, and also attract more doctors to work in Wales, where they can offer their expertise and benefit patients.”

Dr Osibodu added that the BMA remains committed to achieving full pay restoration and acknowledged that challenges remain for some doctors.

“Whilst this contract sets the foundations for a brighter future for resident doctors in Wales, we recognise that there are still doctors who are struggling to develop their careers and secure permanent work,” he said. “We need to work with the Welsh Government and NHS employers to address training bottlenecks and underemployment.”

The Welsh Government has previously said it recognises the pressures facing resident doctors and the importance of improving recruitment and retention across NHS Wales, while also highlighting the need to balance pay agreements with wider NHS funding pressures and patient demand.

The new contract is expected to be phased in from August 2026. It will initially apply to doctors in foundation programmes, those in specialty training with unbanded rotas, and new starters, before being rolled out to all resident doctors across Wales.

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Crime

Swansea man jailed for online child sex offence dies in prison

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A SWANSEA man who was jailed earlier this year for attempting to engage in sexual communication with a child has died while in custody.

Gareth Davies, aged 59, of the Maritime Quarter, was serving an 18-month prison sentence after being convicted in May of sending sexually explicit messages to what he believed was a 14-year-old girl. The account was in fact a decoy used as part of an online safeguarding operation.

The court heard that Davies began communicating with the decoy between November and December 2024 and persistently pursued the individual, later attempting to arrange a face-to-face meeting. He was arrested after being confronted by the decoy operators.

Davies had pleaded not guilty but was convicted following a trial. At the time of sentencing, police described the messages as extremely concerning and said his imprisonment was necessary to protect children.

It has now been confirmed that Davies died at HMP Parc on Wednesday (Nov 27) while serving his sentence.

The Prisons and Probation Ombudsman has launched an independent investigation into the death, which is standard procedure in all cases where someone dies in custody. No cause of death has been released at this stage.

A coroner will determine the circumstances in due course.

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Farming

Welsh Conservatives warn climate plans could mean fewer livestock on Welsh farms

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THE WELSH CONSERVATIVES have challenged the Welsh Government over climate change policies they say could lead to reductions in livestock numbers across Wales, raising concerns about the future of Welsh farming.

The row follows the Welsh Government’s decision, alongside Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats, to support the UK Climate Change Committee’s Fourth Carbon Budget, which sets out the pathway towards Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

The Carbon Budget, produced by the independent Climate Change Committee (CCC), states that meeting Net Zero targets will require a reduction in agricultural emissions, including changes to land use and, in some scenarios, a reduction in livestock numbers.

During questioning in the Senedd, the Welsh Conservatives pressed the Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Climate Change and Rural Affairs on whether the Welsh Government supports reducing livestock numbers as part of its climate strategy.

Speaking after the exchange, Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs, Samuel Kurtz MS, said the Welsh Government could not distance itself from the implications of the policy it had backed.

Mr Kurtz said: “By voting in favour of these climate change regulations, Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats have signed up to the UK Climate Change Committee’s call to cut livestock numbers in Wales, and they cannot dodge that reality.

“The Deputy First Minister’s smoke-and-mirrors answers only confirm what farmers already fear: that Labour, along with their budget bedfellows in Plaid and the Lib Dems, are prepared to sacrifice Welsh agriculture in pursuit of climate targets.”

He added that the issue came at a time of growing pressure on the farming sector, pointing to uncertainty over the proposed Sustainable Farming Scheme, the ongoing failure to eradicate bovine TB, nitrogen pollution regulations under the Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZs), and proposed changes to inheritance tax rules affecting family farms.

The Welsh Government has repeatedly said it does not have a target to forcibly reduce livestock numbers and has argued that future emissions reductions will come through a combination of improved farming practices, environmental land management, and changes in land use agreed with farmers.

Ministers have also said the Sustainable Farming Scheme, which is due to replace the Basic Payment Scheme, is intended to reward farmers for food production alongside environmental outcomes, rather than remove land from agriculture.

The UK Climate Change Committee, which advises governments across the UK, has stressed that its pathways are based on modelling rather than fixed quotas, and that devolved governments have flexibility in how targets are met.

However, farming unions and rural groups in Wales have warned that policies focused on emissions reduction risk undermining the viability of livestock farming, particularly in upland and marginal areas where alternatives to grazing are limited.

The debate highlights the growing tension between climate targets and food production in Wales, with livestock farming remaining a central part of the rural economy and Welsh cultural identity.

As discussions continue over the final shape of the Sustainable Farming Scheme and Wales’ long-term climate plans, pressure is mounting on the Welsh Government to reassure farmers that climate policy will not come at the expense of the sector’s survival.

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