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Unpaid carers could swing election in Mid & South Pembs, says charity

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UNPAID carers have the power to swing 185 constituencies at the General Election, charity Carers Trust warns

Analysis from UK charity Carers Trust shows there are enough unpaid carers in 185 constituencies to potentially swing each of those seats at this week’s General Election, including in Mid and South Pembrokeshire.

There are 185 seats in England and Wales where the number of carers is higher than the current MP’s majority. They include many seats held by key figures in all parties. Amon them are the Conservatives’ former leader Iain Duncan Smith and Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Deputy Leader Angela Rayner, and Lib Dems Daisy Cooper and Tim Farron.

In the new Mid & South Pembrokeshire constituency there are 10,222 carers and Stephen Crabb’s majority at the last election in 2019 was 8621, although remember at the last election we had the differently configured seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire.

A total of 96 constituencies currently held by the Conservatives could be swung by carer votes. This includes Chingford and Woodford Green where Iain Duncan Smith has a 1,604 majority in a seat with 8,225 carers. Alex Chalk’s 1,421 majority in Cheltenham could also face a threat from 6,871 carers.

In all, 83 Labour-held constituencies could see their majority overturned by carer votes. Angela Rayner has a 4,689 vote majority in Ashton-under-Lyne, a constituency of 8,517 carers. Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves is contesting the new seat of Leeds West and Pudsey which has 7,783 carers and an estimated 2019 majority of 2,963.

Carers Trust has warned that, although there are an estimated seven million unpaid carers in the UK, they have been largely ignored by most political parties during the election campaign. Many carers are looking after ill or disabled family and friends because of the crisis facing social care. Yet the social care system has also been largely absent from election debates so far. If parties are serious about tackling the social care crisis, they will need support from unpaid carers. In return, those carers need more support themselves.

Dominic Carter, Carers Trust’s Director of Policy and Public Affairs, said: “Many carers have been plunged into pverty because of their caring role and are picking up the pieces left by a social care system that’s been starved of investment. These figures show that, although carers have been largely ignored this election, they have the power to swing huge numbers of seats across the country on July 4.

“At Carers Trust we are calling on all parties to make sure carers are no longer pushed to breaking point and are properly supported, including overhauling Carer’s Allowance – the lowest benefit of its kind. It’s not too late for parliamentary candidates to start listening to those calls. If they don’t, they could be punished at the ballot box.”

The largest majority under threat from carer power is Blackpool North and Fleetwood, where the Conservatives’ 10,119 majority for Paul Maynard could be wiped out by 10,233 carers. Seats with majorities of over 8,500 like Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, Harrow East, Enfield North and Pontypridd are also at risk if carers vote against the incumbent.

Elsewhere, carer votes could also make the difference in marginals like Burnley, Leigh & Atherton and Wimbledon.

More than 1.5 million people in England and Wales provide at least 50 hours of care a week, with huge implications for their finances, health and future prospects. A survey by Carers Trust last year found just 55% of carers say they get the support they need, while 41% said the time they spent caring has increased. Despite this, there has not been a UK Government plan for carers since 2020 and the last cross-government Carers Strategy expired six years ago.

Carer power: The 10 biggest majorities at risk from carer votes

Seat

2019 majority

Number of carers

Incumbent MP

Party

Blackpool North and Fleetwood

10119

10233

Paul Maynard

Conservative

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

9091

9677

Fay Jones (Brecon and Radnorshire)

Conservative

Harrow East

8987

9219

Bob Blackman

Conservative

Enfield North

8853

9258

Feryal Clark

Labour

Pontypridd

8798

9944

Alex Davies-Jones

Labour

Corby and East Northamptonshire

8676

8895

Tom Pursglove (Corby)

Conservative

Mid and South Pembrokeshire

8621

10222

Stephen Crabb (Preseli Pembrokeshire

Conservative

Taunton and Wellington

8536

8763

Rebecca Pow (Taunton Deane)

Conservative

South Ribble

8515

8664

Katherine Fletcher

Conservative

Neath and Swansea East

8451

10961

Christina Rees (Neath)

Labour

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Police launch winter crackdown on crime and antisocial behaviour across Dyfed-Powys

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DYFED-POWYS POLICE have launched a winter policing operation aimed at tackling town centre crime, antisocial behaviour and dangerous driving during the festive period.

The force is taking part in the Home Office’s Winter of Action campaign, with officers concentrating on crime “hotspots” across Dyfed, Powys and West Wales in the run-up to Christmas and New Year.

Police say the focus will be on reducing shoplifting, street crime and antisocial behaviour, alongside increased patrols linked to the night-time economy. The operation also includes measures targeting violence against women and girls, as well as alcohol-related disorder.

The winter campaign is being supported by Operation Ivydene, a dedicated antisocial behaviour initiative funded by the Office of the Police and Crime Commissioner. Dyfed-Powys Police received almost £500,000 in 2024 to deliver additional patrols and targeted responses in identified problem areas.

According to the force, Operation Ivydene delivered more than 12,000 hours of patrols during its first year, with reported antisocial behaviour falling by around 40% in hotspot locations.

The second year of the operation began this autumn. Inspector Darren Crockford said lessons learned during the first phase were now being used to broaden the focus.

He said: “Whilst we are still working towards the original aim of reducing antisocial behaviour, there is now an added emphasis on reducing serious violent crime, knife crime and retail crime.

“So far, over 2,050 hours of patrols have taken place across hotspot areas, with more than 70% of those patrols involving engagement with local businesses, charities and third-sector organisations.”

Operation Ivydene is currently active in a number of towns, including Haverfordwest, Milford Haven and Pembroke in Pembrokeshire, along with Ammanford, Llanelli and Carmarthen in Carmarthenshire, Aberystwyth and Lampeter in Ceredigion, and Newtown and Llandrindod Wells in Powys.

Community engagement forms a key part of the operation. Police say more than 6,300 surveys were carried out during the first year of Operation Ivydene to gather feedback from residents and businesses in hotspot areas.

Inspector Crockford added that the responses had helped officers better understand local concerns and shape patrol activity.

Alongside town centre policing, Roads Policing Units are also increasing patrols over the festive period, with a focus on drink and drug driving.

Police said officers would also be targeting the so-called “Fatal Five” offences – speeding, using a mobile phone while driving, not wearing a seatbelt, driving without due care, and driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs – which are the most common causes of fatal and serious collisions.

Dyfed-Powys Police covers more than 8,500 miles of road across the force area. Officers are urging drivers not to feel pressured into risky decisions and to take responsibility for staying safe behind the wheel.

Updates on the winter operation are being shared through Dyfed-Powys Police social media channels and the Dyfed-Powys Connects messaging service.

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Paul Davies praises work of Pembrokeshire voluntary sector during PAVS visit

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MEMBER of the Senedd Paul Davies MS has praised the “vital role” played by the voluntary sector in Pembrokeshire following a visit to PAVS – Pembrokeshire Association of Voluntary Services.

Mr Davies met with Chief Executive Jess Bickerton and members of the PAVS team, who provide support to individuals, volunteers, community groups and charities across the county.

During the visit, the Preseli Pembrokeshire MS was briefed on the wide range of advice, guidance and practical assistance offered by PAVS to help local organisations operate effectively and respond to community needs.

PAVS works closely with voluntary and third-sector groups, supporting everything from governance and funding applications to volunteering and community development, and plays a key role in strengthening local networks across Pembrokeshire.

Speaking after the visit, Mr Davies said the organisation’s work was crucial in helping communities thrive, particularly at a time when many voluntary groups are facing increasing pressures and rising demand for support.

He thanked Ms Bickerton and her colleagues for their work and for the warm welcome, describing their contribution as “invaluable” to communities throughout the county.

PAVS supports hundreds of organisations and volunteers each year and is a central hub for the voluntary and community sector in Pembrokeshire.

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New OS tideline data could strengthen coastal erosion and flood monitoring

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NEW data released by Ordnance Survey (OS) could significantly improve how coastal erosion and flood risk are monitored across Great Britain as sea levels rise and extreme rainfall becomes more frequent.

The continuous tidelines dataset provides a clearer and more accurate picture of where high and low tides fall around the coast and along tidal rivers. The data is expected to support environmental monitoring, flood modelling, and long-term planning as the impacts of climate change accelerate.

Earlier this year, the Environment Agency updated its National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA), which for the first time factored in projected climate change impacts. The assessment found that around 6.3 million homes and businesses in England — roughly one in five — are currently at risk of flooding. That figure could rise to one in four properties by 2050.

The Agency has also updated its national coastal erosion risk map, which estimates that around 3,500 properties could be affected by coastal erosion by 2055.

The new OS dataset builds on existing information held in the OS National Geographic Database (OS NGD). Previously separate tidal boundary features have now been automatically merged into continuous high- and low-tide lines, creating two new feature types within the OS NGD Water theme. These can also be used as overlay layers through the OS Tiles API, allowing for clearer visual mapping and large-scale analysis.

The data is expected to support a wide range of environmental and regulatory work, including coastal erosion and flooding modelling, updating boundary features to reflect coastal change, climate change impact assessments, and identifying areas of foreshore that act as natural flood defences.

William Russell, Senior Coastal Process Scientist at the Wales Coastal Monitoring Centre, said the dataset would remove uncertainty from coastal monitoring.

“One of our core values is ‘data, not opinions’. When information is missing, we seek out or collect the data needed to support sound decision-making,” he said.
“The OS Continuous Tidal Boundaries dataset removes uncertainty from our strategic monitoring programme and gives us clearer insight into intertidal extents, delivering cost savings and efficiencies for our survey contractors.”

Ordnance Survey says the data is particularly valuable for environmental policy and regulation, including decisions around water discharge and flood management. Accurately defining the intertidal zone helps identify natural coastal defences, which play a vital role in protecting communities and ecosystems.

Intertidal information has also been enhanced within the Land theme of the OS NGD, with improved coverage of previously obscured areas to create a more complete national coastal dataset.

Lily Brown, Product Manager at Ordnance Survey, said the data would support evidence-based decision-making.

“The OS National Geographic Database contains trusted, accurate features that support everything from climate resilience and infrastructure planning to coastal management,” she said.
“By incorporating authoritative tideline data, we are enabling decisions that will help protect and monitor Britain’s evolving coastlines.”

Following the dataset’s release, Ordnance Survey analysed how ceremonial counties change in size between high and low tide. Merseyside showed the greatest variation, with a nearly 17% difference, followed by Orkney at around 7%.

The analysis also highlighted that counties considered landlocked, such as Nottinghamshire and South Yorkshire, still experience significant tidal influence due to rivers like the Trent and the Don being tidal far inland.

When combined with Unique Property Reference Numbers (UPRNs), the tideline data shows that Greater London has the highest number of homes and businesses within 15 metres of the high-tide line, at around 5,500. Cornwall ranks second with just over 3,000 properties, followed by Devon with around 2,400.

The new data has been released under the Public Sector Geospatial Agreement (PSGA), which provides emergency services and public sector organisations with access to Ordnance Survey data and services.

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