Politics

14,000 job losses or 22% tax hike: The stark choice facing Welsh councils

Published

6 months ago

November 11, 2025

WELSH councils have warned plugging a £436m budget gap for next year would require an average council tax increase of 22% or the loss of 14,000 jobs.

The Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA), which represents Wales’ 22 councils, said local authorities face £560m of pressures in 2026/27 – £100m more than expected.

Councils warned a 2% settlement in the Welsh Government’s “roll-over” draft budget would be “extremely damaging” for services and leave a £436m shortfall. Ministers have proposed an average 2.5% increase, with a funding floor to ensure no council receives less than 2.3%.

Bridging the £436m gap would require “unconscionably high” council tax rises of about 22% or the equivalent of around 14,000 job cuts across Wales, according to the WLGA.

The stark warning was echoed by Wales’ outgoing auditor general who said some councils are “very close” to having to issue a formal section 114 (effective bankruptcy) notice.

Adrian Crompton told the Senedd’s finance committee that councils – which are forecasting a £184m overspend in 2025/26 – are struggling to balance their books.

He said: “There are undoubtedly a few authorities that are very close to having to issue a section 114. Our assessment at the time of publishing our report was that none were about to, so they all had sufficient grip on their in-year position, so it wasn’t imminent.

“But some are right at the edge and they are all facing some very significant demand-led pressures in areas like children’s services, additional learning needs, temporary accommodation, which are very hard to predict.”

Mr Crompton, whose eight-year term as auditor general ends in July, added: “When you’re right at the edge of financial sustainability, if you get hit with a couple of significant cases that you have to deliver against, that could be sufficient to tip authorities over the edge.”

He warned their fragile financial state means councils would be the “most immediately and severely hit” sector if the Welsh Government’s budget fails to pass.

The financial pressures facing councils were detailed in the WLGA’s written evidence on the draft budget which showed how demand-led services are spiralling.

For example, the net cost of homelessness and temporary accommodation has exploded nearly eight-fold in a decade – from £12.8m in 2016/17 to £100.8m budgeted for this year.

The WLGA also warned of “unsustainable” pressures on school finances, with children’s care and education accounting for the majority of the forecasted £184m overspend.

One council said 33 primary and six secondary schools – nearly 70% of all schools in its area – were projecting a deficit budget.

Another reported its schools had “completely eroded a £15m surplus balance into a £2m deficit” and projected a £9m in-year overspend. Others warned of job losses, reserves running dry and class sizes rising above legal limits.

The financial strain is so severe councils are failing at their basic accounting duties, with many missing deadlines to file their accounts – a situation Mr Crompton described as a “slippery slope” for bodies “so close to financial sustainability”.

He argued spiralling demands are a symptom of a wider failure to shift spending to prevention. The auditor general said his recommendation for the Welsh Government to “embed prevention into the budget-setting process” had been rejected.

“It’s disappointing that it’s been rejected because it seems so fundamental,” said the auditor general, who added: “I don’t fully understand why.”

Councils’ evidence echoed this, stating while policy “increasingly references the importance of prevention, this is not often reflected” in funding. The WLGA said this has forced councils to cut non-statutory services such as leisure, transport and community facilities.

Mr Crompton’s warning about councils was part of a wider assessment that Wales’ entire model of public service delivery is “unsustainable on its current trajectory”.

Giving evidence on November 5, he told Senedd Members demand is “outstripping” funding and critical areas have been “hollowed out” after two decades of tight budgets.

Mr Crompton warned this “unsustainable” model was not unique to local government, with all seven health boards in Wales breaching their statutory duty to break even over three years. The finance committee heard the NHS is forecasting a £191m deficit this year.

News

Welsh Labour manifesto pledge: Direct London train for Milford Haven

Published

2 hours ago

May 3, 2026

Tom Sinclair

WELSH LABOUR has unveiled a pledge to deliver a direct rail service between Milford Haven and London – a move that would transform connectivity for communities across Pembrokeshire.

This commitment builds on £50 million of UK Labour investment to upgrade rail services to Milford Haven.

Work is already underway, in partnership between the Welsh Labour Government and Pembrokeshire County Council, led by Council Leader Paul Miller, to transform Milford Haven railway station into a modern Public Transport Interchange – delivering smoother, better connected and more accessible journeys.

Together, these upgrades will pave the way for direct London services to call at Milford Haven, alongside an hourly service and vital level crossing safety improvements delivered by the UK Labour Government.

First Minister Eluned Morgan said: “This pledge sits alongside a record commitment to rail in Wales – up to £14 billion of investment, new stations and a transformed Metro. But this is about more than just a rail line.

It’s about opening Pembrokeshire up – bringing more people to one of the most beautiful parts of Wales, strengthening our tourism sector and creating new opportunities for local businesses to grow.

“And as we do that, we’re doing it the right way – backing a greener economy, making it easier for people to travel sustainably, and ensuring that growth benefits our communities. This is how we build a stronger future for West Wales – with better connections, more opportunity and an economy that works with our environment, not against it.”

Welsh Labour candidate for Ceredigion Penfro, Marc Tierney added: “A direct train to London from Milford would be a game changer for our communities – boosting tourism, supporting local businesses and making it easier for people to live and work here.

“The work underway to transform Milford Haven station into a modern transport hub, alongside plans for an hourly service, shows what Welsh Labour can deliver when we work in partnership with local authorities – investing in the infrastructure our communities deserve. With new funding from the UK Labour Government and a strong partnership in place, we can now go further.

“Welsh Labour is delivering the investment and the ambition needed to ensure West Wales is at the forefront of modern, connected and accessible transport.”

The pledge forms part of Welsh Labour’s wider plan to modernise public transport, strengthen regional connectivity and ensure no part of Wales is left behind.

News

Plaid Cymru councillor suspended over migration comments

Published

4 hours ago

May 3, 2026

Tom Sinclair

A LONG-SERVING Gwynedd councillor has been suspended by Plaid Cymru after comments linking migration, housing pressure and the Welsh language.

Cllr Gareth Roberts, who represents Bangor’s Dewi ward, made the remarks during a planning committee debate on an application for 25 homes in Chwilog, on the Llŷn Peninsula.

Councillor raised concerns

The committee voted to reject the scheme against officers’ advice after concerns were raised about its possible impact on community cohesion and the Welsh language.

During the meeting, Cllr Roberts said Bangor was “no longer a Welsh-speaking area” and claimed he had seen the city’s Welsh-speaking population decline.

He said: “Certainly, within the last five years, I’ve seen hundreds if not 1,000 more people coming here to live, migrants.”

He also referred to pressure on schools, saying he had been told there were 42 different languages being spoken at his former primary school.

Cllr Roberts argued that housing shortages in Bangor could push demand into surrounding Welsh-speaking communities, including Chwilog.

Party investigation

Plaid Cymru has confirmed that Cllr Roberts’ party membership has been temporarily suspended following a formal complaint.

A party spokesperson said the suspension was a “neutral action” while an investigation is carried out.

Cllr Roberts has also resigned from Plaid Cymru’s group on Cyngor Gwynedd and is now listed as an individual member.

Speaking to BBC Wales, he insisted he was not opposed to migration and said Bangor had always been multicultural.

He said his comments were about housing, integration and the need to help people learn Welsh, rather than criticism of those who had moved to the area.

Local Government

All-women battle to be Pembrokeshire’s next leader

Published

19 hours ago

May 3, 2026

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

PEMBROKESHIRE council leader Cllr Jon Harvey, who announced he is to step down and not seek re-election, has backed Cabinet member Cllr Tessa Hodgson as his successor.

Pembroke St Mary North member Cllr Harvey became leader in May 2024 after narrowly beating fellow leadership hopeful Conservative group leader Di Clements by 30 votes to 27.

Cllr Harvey replaced Cllr David Simpson as leader.

Following his decision to step down, Cllr Harvey said: “It has been a fantastic two years, a real honour and privilege to lead the council, working with a talented and committed cabinet.

“After much thought and reflection, I feel now is the right time to make way for someone else to lead the council through the next 12 months to the local government elections in May 2027.”

With Cllr Harvey not remaining as leader, three nominations have been received for the all-women leadership battle at the May 15 AGM: Conservative Group Leader Cllr Di Clements, unaffiliated member and current Cabinet Member for Adult Social Care Cllr Tessa Hodgson, and Leader of the Independent Group Cllr Anji Tinley.

Cllr Harvey has backed Cllr Hodgson for the top job.

He said: “We are living through turbulent times, and following the Senedd election next week, we will almost certainly have a new government in Cardiff, and we need leadership and a cabinet in Pembrokeshire, that has experience and is able to build on the great work already in progress, and that is why I will be 100 per cent supporting Tessa in her bid to become the next Leader.”

Cllr Hodgson was first elected in 2012 as the member for Lamphey and is currently the cabinet member for adult social care and safeguarding.

Cllr Anji Tinley (Image: Pembrokeshire County Council.)

Cllr Hodgson said: “I was sad to hear that Jon had decided not to seek re-election – he has much to be proud of and it has been great to serve in his cabinet and to work alongside him with such a dedicated team of cabinet colleagues.

“Should I be successful in my bid to be leader, I would look to build on the successes of the last nine years and use my experience, energy and ideas to lead the council through the next 12 months and to work collaboratively with all members in the best interests of Pembrokeshire.”

Fellow hopeful for the leader role, Cllr Clements gave her reasons why she should lead: “My Conservative Group are laser-focussed on making sure the people of Pembrokeshire get value for their money, delivering good statutory services and tackling the failure of leadership on education seen in Pembrokeshire.

Cllr Di Clements. (Image: Pembrokeshire County Council.)

“People I talk to are concerned about making ends meet and are worried that our local economy is stagnating.

“In these particularly challenging times, we need to make sure that our council tax is as low as practicably possible so they have more money in their pockets and prove to them that the council can spend their hard-earned money more wisely on services that really matter to the residents whom we serve.

“Resident’s priorities are our priorities.”

Leader Cllr Jon Harvey. (Image: Pembrokeshire County Council.)

Cllr Tinley has been contacted for a statement.

When Cllr Harvey’s decision became public, former leader of the Independent Group on Pembrokeshire County Council Cllr Huw Murphy, in a statement, claimed Cllr Havery has been removed in a “coup”.

Cllr Harvey has denied any ‘coup’ taking place, saying: “Honestly, I had to laugh at this statement by Cllr Murphy. I’ve enjoyed my time as Leader immensely and I am proud of my record, but I have done a full leadership term.

“The decision to stand down and not seek re-election was mine and mine alone and I’m looking forward to supporting Cllr Tessa Hodgson at the AGM.”