News
Labour and Plaid agree on Senedd carve-up

LABOUR and Plaid Cymru this week pre-empted the results of a Senedd Committee’s enquiry and announced a huge increase in the number of Wales’s Senedd Members.
While the Special Purpose Committee on Senedd Reform continues to hear evidence ahead of its final report, Labour and Plaid announced they had agreed that Wales would elect 96 Senedd members instead of the current sixty at the next election.
Securing electoral reform and expanding the Senedd were Plaid Cymru manifesto commitments while expanding the Senedd was a Labour policy pledge.
However, the arrangements announced on Tuesday (May 10) are likely to increase questions about how accountable Senedd members are to their electorate.
FIXING THE SYSTEM
One of the key gripes of those in favour of Senedd reform is the abolition of regional members selected using Wales’s complex PR system.
The new arrangements will see 32 constituencies based on the new Westminster constituency boundaries electing three members each but grouped with six other constituencies to ensure seats are allocated (theoretically) more proportionately.
If that sounds complicated, the system will have one simple result.
It will sever the link between elected and electors.
Voters will vote for parties and not individuals. The party-list will decide who gets elected to represent you.
You will no longer have a say in the identity of your representatives.
Instead, the parties have all the power to decide who gets elected.
You’re made for life if you get in via the system proposed.
And if that sounds like modern Welsh democracy, it’s a very peculiar form of it.
The arrangement suits Labour as its voters won’t have any chance to vote for anyone else. In a properly proportional single transferrable vote system (STV), votes get the chance to rank their preferences.
Under the proposals, voters will vote for one party and whoever else gets elected depends on the system churning out results and favoured and otherwise unelectable party hacks.
Like most current regional members, Senedd Members elected under the proposed system will become
invisible in their communities.
MPs will have far greater local profiles.
Suppose the proposals want to encourage nation-building and create a stronger and more democratic Welsh Parliament. In that case, the results are likely to entrench Labour and Plaid in a permanently symbiotic relationship with very little chance for other parties to breakthrough.
It’s a system ripe for abuse by party managers and rooked to exclude small parties from any national say.
From Labour and Plaid’s perspectives, it will ensure the Conservatives are permanently excluded from power in Wales.
THE WIND OF CHANGE
First Minister Mark Drakeford said: “The case for Senedd reform has been made.
“We now need to get on with the hard work to create a modern Senedd, which reflects the Wales we live in today. A Parliament that truly works for Wales.
“The joint position statement we are publishing today will help support the important work of the cross-party Special Purpose Committee to move Senedd reform forwards.”
Adam Price, leader of Plaid Cymru, said: “These reforms will lay the foundations for a stronger Welsh democracy and a fairer, more representative Senedd that will look entirely different to the outdated political system at Westminster.
“A stronger, more diverse, more representative Senedd will have a greater capacity to perform its primary purpose of making a positive difference to the lives of the people of Wales.”
Ensuring that the Senedd is more diverse is an interesting step forward.
The statement detailing the proposals says that electoral law in Wales will include “integrated statutory gender quotas and mandatory zipping.”
The first part of that phrase indicates an aim to ensure equal representation between the genders in the Senedd.
The second part, “mandatory zipping”, requires parties to put forward equal numbers of male and female candidates and alternate between men and women when preparing their candidate lists.
If number one on the internal party list is male, the second is female, the third male, the fourth female &c.
It is unclear whether the Welsh Government has the legal power to force those measures.
Mark Drakeford and Ada Price wrote to the Reform Committee’s Chair, Huw Irranca-Davies, saying their proposals are “most likely to achieve the two-thirds Senedd majority required by law to deliver reform.
“We are confident that the statement below will enable you to make recommendations on these fundamental issues.”
DRAKEFORD AND PRICE “TRYING
TO STRONGARM COMMITTEE”
The Welsh Conservative response was swift.
Andrew RT Davies said: “Wales does not need more politicians in Cardiff Bay – we need more teachers, doctors, dentists, and nurses.
“While we have consistently objected to more politicians, we recognise Labour and Plaid have enough votes to push ahead.
“That’s why we have engaged constructively with the Senedd Reform Committee.
“Sadly, both parties have completely undermined the committee’s work with this announcement.”
Darren Millar, the Conservative Member of the Senedd Reform Committee, was even more scathing.
Announcing his decision to quit the Committee, he said: “It was extremely disappointing to see the Committee undermined by the publication of a joint position statement on Senedd reform by the First Minister and the Leader of Plaid Cymru.
“Issuing the position statement to the media in the absence of any written or oral statement to the Senedd was extremely discourteous to the Welsh Parliament.
“The publication of such a prescriptive statement before the Committee completes its work. However, this announcement effectively terminates its ability to draw independent conclusions.
“It is with regret that I have resigned from the Committee, but after the stunt pulled by the First Minister and Plaid’s leader, it has become futile.
“It is unacceptable that they have tried to strongarm the Committee by imposing their position in this way. Senedd committees should not be fettered in this way.
“We joined this committee and process in good faith as there was a mandate for change, but it looks like that was misplaced.”
The Reform Committee will report on May 31, but it looks like its decisions have been made for it.
Health
Welsh Government announces additional funding for hospices

HOSPICSE across Wales are set to receive a further £5.5 million in funding to help continue delivering essential palliative and end-of-life care services.
The cash boost is in addition to the £3 million uplift in recurrent funding confirmed in the Welsh Government’s 2025–26 budget. The new funding will support Wales’ twelve NHS-commissioned hospices — including the country’s two children’s hospices — in managing financial pressures and ensuring fair pay for staff.
Hospices in Wales play a vital role in supporting patients, families and carers during the most challenging times, and are committed to providing dignified and personalised care outside of hospital settings.
Health Secretary Jeremy Miles said: “Hospices play a vital role in supporting families at some of the most difficult times.
We are committed to strengthening and improving palliative and end-of-life care to ensure everyone who needs hospice support receives dignified and personalised care, outside of hospital.”
Liz Booyse, Chair of Hospices Cymru, welcomed the announcement: “We welcome the Welsh Government’s commitment of funding. It is a testament to the importance of the hospice sector within our healthcare system, and we are immensely grateful. Our services provide vital care and support to over 20,000 children and adults affected by terminal illnesses each year.
This funding is a significant step forward, and we will continue working in partnership with the Welsh Government to achieve a sustainable funding settlement that will bring greater stability to the Welsh hospice sector.”
Matthew Brindley, Policy and Advocacy Manager for Wales at Hospice UK, added: “Recent years have been very tough for Wales’s hospices, amid a combination of rapidly rising costs and ever-growing need for end-of-life care.
We’re grateful to the Welsh Government for recognising both the pressure hospices are under, and the immense value they bring to Wales’ health and social care system.
It’s vital we continue to work together toward a more sustainable approach to hospice funding in Wales. Our population is ageing, with increasingly complex health needs. We need a strong, robust palliative and end-of-life care system — and hospices in Wales are ready to play their part.”
News
Welsh Labour dominance under threat in closest Senedd race in 25 years

New electoral system and rising support for Reform could reshape political landscape in 2026
WELSH Labour’s long-standing dominance in Cardiff Bay could come to an end at the 2026 Senedd Election, with the latest projections showing the party only narrowly ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Plaid Cymru in what is set to be the tightest race in a generation.
Cavendish, one of the UK’s leading public affairs and communications consultancies, today (Thursday, April 10) launched its new Senedd Seat Projector, revealing dramatic shifts in public support and the likelihood of a multi-party government.
Using polling data and modelling based on the new proportional voting system and enlarged Senedd, Cavendish forecasts that Labour may secure 28 seats—just one ahead of Reform on 27, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 24.
Under the reformed system, 96 members will be elected across 16 new constituencies, with each electing six MSs. The changes are expected to significantly alter how campaigns are run and how votes are converted into seats.
Coalition government likely
Cathy Owens, Director at Cavendish, said a coalition government appears almost certain.
“Our Senedd Seat Projector sets out a stark reality for Welsh Labour,” she said. “It shows a coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru as the most likely outcome, potentially with joint First Ministers.
“Otherwise, a combination of the Conservatives, Reform, and Plaid Cymru would be needed to secure a majority—a scenario that seems politically unlikely.”
Cavendish says the data reflects a “seismic” shift in Welsh politics. For the past 25 years, Welsh Labour has polled consistently between 35% and 40%. But over the last year, support for Labour has dropped significantly, with Reform now regularly polling at similar levels.
The polling picture
Cavendish compiled projections from leading pollsters over the last 12 months. While Labour consistently leads, the margin is often razor-thin. A sample of projections includes:
Survation (April 2025):
- Labour: 28 seats (27%)
- Reform: 27 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
- Conservatives: 15 seats (15%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
- Greens: 0
Beaufort (December 2024):
- Labour: 28 seats (27%)
- Reform: 28 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 20 seats (18%)
- Conservatives: 17 seats (17%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
- Greens: 1
YouGov (December 2024):
- Labour: 25 seats (23%)
- Reform: 25 seats (24%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (24%)
- Conservatives: 19 seats (19%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (5%)
- Greens: 1
Redfield & Wilton (June 2024):
- Labour: 38 seats (36%)
- Reform: 11 seats (11%)
- Plaid Cymru: 24 seats (22%)
- Conservatives: 20 seats (18%)
- Lib Dems: 2 seats (6%)
- Greens: 1
The variation highlights the volatility of Welsh politics under the new system, with small shifts in support having a significant impact on seat distribution.
Campaigns will need to adapt
Cathy Owens added: “The new system rewards efficient, geographically spread support. Parties will need to rethink their campaign strategies completely.
“There will be six types of marginal seats, and organisations that want to influence manifesto pledges will need to engage far more strategically than before.”
Cavendish says the Senedd Seat Projector offers a unique insight into the upcoming election and will be an essential tool for journalists, analysts, campaigners and the public.
The tool is now live on the Cavendish website, along with a full report on Senedd reform.
Cavendish will also host a LinkedIn Live event featuring Cathy Owens and fellow director Nerys Evans, in conversation with journalist Will Hayward, to discuss the findings and what they mean for the future of Welsh politics.
Business
House prices edge up in Wales as economic concerns hit confidence

HOUSE prices in Wales continued to edge upwards in March, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Residential Market Survey. However, short-term expectations for both prices and sales have declined, as economic uncertainty begins to weigh on market sentiment.
A net balance of 6% of Welsh surveyors reported that house prices were higher over the past three months—the first quarter of 2025—although the increase was marginal.
Despite the slight rise, confidence in the near-term outlook has weakened. A net balance of -24% of respondents now expect house prices to fall over the next three months.
Sales expectations have also taken a downturn. A net balance of -39% of Welsh respondents anticipate a fall in sales during the second quarter of the year, a significant drop from the 12% expecting growth in February.
The decline in optimism follows a fall in demand last month. A net balance of -25% of respondents reported a reduction in new buyer enquiries, while agreed sales also slipped, with a net balance of -7% reporting a fall—marking the second consecutive month in negative territory.
On the supply side, however, there was a more positive signal. A net balance of 24% of Welsh surveyors said there had been an increase in new instructions to sell.
Looking further ahead, the longer-term outlook remains more upbeat. Although the 12-month sales balance has now turned negative, a net balance of 33% of Welsh respondents still expect prices to be higher in a year’s time.
In the lettings market, a net balance of -17% of Welsh respondents reported a fall in tenant demand in March, while landlord instructions fell sharply, with -50% reporting a decline. Nonetheless, rents are expected to rise in the short term, with a net balance of 33% anticipating increases over the next three months.
Anthony Filice FRICS of Kelvin Francis Ltd in Cardiff said: “There are increased levels of instructions and a healthy level of viewings. Sales are being regularly agreed and vendors are increasingly taking advice on accepting offers.”
On the lettings market, he added: “There is a healthy choice of properties available, but with rising rents, tenants are taking time to select. The lower-priced properties are letting the quickest.”
RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinsohn commented on the UK-wide picture: “The expiry of the stamp duty break was always likely to trigger a pause in activity. However, the latest results—and anecdotal evidence from respondents—suggest sentiment has also been dampened by the recent wave of negative macroeconomic news.
“Going forward, much will depend on the broader economic impact of the emerging trade war and how the Bank of England responds. While longer-term expectations remain relatively resilient, they could shift quickly if global headwinds intensify.”
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