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Welsh business confidence ticks higher, but output and employment fall at faster rates

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THE HEADLINE NatWest Wales Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors – registered 48.0 in December, down from 48.5 in November, to signal a modest and quicker drop in output at Welsh businesses. The fall was due to weak client demand, economic uncertainty and a further decrease in new order inflows. The sharper decline in activity in Wales contrasted with the wider UK trend, which indicated a moderate upturn. In fact, Welsh firms recorded the second-fastest drop in output behind the North East of England.

Welsh companies registered a further contraction in new business at the end of 2023, although the rate of decline eased for the second successive month. The continued drop in new orders was linked to subdued demand conditions and customer postponements. The pace of decrease was modest and the slowest since September, though it contrasted with the UK average which indicated a moderate expansion in new business.

Manufacturers and service providers alike in Wales recorded contractions in new orders.

December data signalled an improvement in expectations regarding the outlook for output over the coming year at Welsh firms. The level of optimism reached a five-month high and was stronger than the series average. Companies noted that positive sentiment was due to hopes of a pick up in customer demand, investment in product diversification and facilities, and the acquisition of new clients.

The degree of confidence remained slightly weaker than the UK average, however.

Welsh businesses recorded a fifth consecutive monthly decrease in workforce numbers during December. The rate of job shedding accelerated to the joint-fastest in over three years and was by far the strongest of the 12 monitored UK areas. Weak customer demand led firms to reduce staffing numbers, with redundancies mentioned by panellists.

Employment fell at Welsh manufacturers and service sector firms.

Businesses in Wales indicated another monthly decline in backlogs of work in December. The drop in the level of outstanding business was marked overall and sharper than the UK trend. Firms highlighted that lower new order inflows enabled them to process incomplete work. Nonetheless, the pace of reduction slowed to the weakest in seven months.

Average input costs faced by Welsh firms increased at a quicker pace at the end of 2023. The rise in input prices was attributed to greater raw material and component costs.

Although sharp, the rate of cost inflation was slower than the series average and the trend seen across the UK as a whole. In fact, of the 12 monitored UK areas, only the West Midlands, North East and Northern Ireland recorded slower upticks in operating expenses.

Welsh firms registered a sharper rise in output charges during December, with the rate of inflation picking up to the fastest since August. Anecdotal evidence stated that higher selling prices were due to the pass through of greater costs to customers.

In line with the trend for input costs, the pace of increase in output charges was slower than the UK average, with only Northern Ireland, the North East and the North West recording weaker upticks in selling prices.

Jessica Shipman, Chair, NatWest Cymru Regional Board, told The Pembrokeshire Herald: “The final month of the year signalled more upbeat sentiment among Welsh firms regarding activity in 2024 as business expectations were the strongest since July, despite output and new orders continuing to contract. Companies anticipated that more accommodative demand conditions and investment in new products and facilities would drive output in the year ahead.

“Although the pace of decrease in new business slowed, reduced backlogs of work led to dwindling activity and the joint-fastest drop in employment since October 2020 as business requirements waned further.

“Meanwhile, rates of inflation remained sticky as input costs and output charges rose at faster paces. Sharper hikes in component and raw material costs were passed through to customers despite a challenging demand environment. Nonetheless, rates of increase were among the weakest in around three years and much slower than the 2023 average as inflationary pressures eased substantially from the start of the year.”

 

Business

Tenby sailing club works approved by national park

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A CALL for works to Tenby’s listed building sailing club to improve energy efficiency for the community organisation has been given the go-ahead.

In an application to Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, Harrison Richards of Tenby Sailing Club sought permission for replacing 24 timber windows at the Grade-II-listed Tenby Sailing Club, Penniless Cove Hill, with new Accoya timber double-glazed units.

The application added: “An energy survey conducted by Dragon Energy Consultants highlighted the existing single glazing and rotten window frames as a significant contributor to the club’s energy consumption.

“Tenby Sailing Club is a community organisation which seeks to organise activities year-round but faces significant energy costs being housed in a historic building. The current windows are beyond repair, with cracked glazing, decay, water ingress, and poor energy efficiency.

“The two windows at balcony level are not included, as they were previously replaced and remain in good condition. All new units will replicate the existing profiles, dimensions, glazing patterns, and overall appearance, ensuring no visual change to the building’s character.

“The neighbouring three-storey harbour stores occupied by Tenby Sea Cadets have previously replaced the building’s windows with double glazing. This like-for-like replacement in appearance will improve durability, weather resistance, and thermal performance while preserving the special architectural and historic interest of the listed building.”

An officer report recommending approval said: “The Sailing Club was built as a warehouse c. 1825, abutting the C17 sluice. Originally wine stores, it was later used by the local fishermen for stores and is now the home to Tenby Sailing Club, established in 1936.”

It said no adverse comments to the proposals had been received.

It added: “The proposal is to replace the majority (24 total) of windows in painted timber, double-glazed with face-mounted glazing bars of traditional scale and profile. Whilst a modern practice of glazing, the proposal involves no loss of historic fabric, provides an obvious visual improvement and addresses concerns as to heating costs.”

It finished: “The scheme is considered to be in keeping with the character of the listed building, and its setting in terms of design and form. As such, the application can be supported subject to conditions.”

The application was conditionally approved by planners.

 

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Business

Taxi fare shock in Milford Haven as drivers switch to meters

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TAXI passengers in Milford Haven are facing a sudden jump in fares, as drivers increasingly switch on their meters and charge full council-approved rates.

One Herald reader said a short return trip from Milford Haven to Neyland cost £30 — around double what he expected to pay.

But drivers insist the prices are not new — they are simply the official tariff now being applied.

Under Pembrokeshire County Council rules, the standard daytime fare starts at £4 for the first mile (£5 after 6pm), rising by around £3 per mile thereafter. Waiting time is also charged, meaning even short return journeys can quickly add up.

Higher rates apply in the evenings, at weekends and on bank holidays.

End of the £3 taxi

Milford Haven has long been known for cheap taxis, with short in-town journeys often costing as little as £3 — far below official rates.

That was down to competition, older vehicles, and the need to keep prices low in a town where many rely on affordable transport.

Drivers say those days are now over.

One local driver told The Herald: “People got used to cheap fares, but that was never the real price. Now we have to use the meter or we’re losing money.”

Fuel costs biting

Most taxis run on diesel, now around 170p per litre locally. For drivers covering long distances each day, the increase has hit hard.

Global tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, feeding directly into higher fuel costs in the UK.

With fare increases requiring a lengthy council process, many drivers say they have no option but to charge the full tariff.

Vulnerable hit hardest

The change is being felt most by those who rely on taxis the most.

Elderly residents, people on low incomes and those without access to a car are now facing higher everyday travel costs.

There has been no recent increase in Pembrokeshire’s official taxi fares, which have remained broadly unchanged since 2022.

The difference is simple: drivers are now charging them.

As one put it: “We’re not putting prices up — we’re just finally charging what we’re supposed to be charging.”

 

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Business

Cardiff Airport expects Easter passenger surge as demand rises

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CARDIFF AIRPORT is preparing for a busy Easter getaway, with more than 46,000 passengers expected to travel through the airport over the holiday period.

The figure represents an 18% increase compared to the same period last year, reflecting growing demand for both sunshine destinations and European city breaks.

The busiest routes this Easter are set to be Alicante, Dublin and Málaga, with flights operated by airlines including Ryanair, Vueling and TUI Airways.

Travellers heading for warmer weather can also take advantage of direct flights to the Canary Islands, including Tenerife, Lanzarote, Gran Canaria and Fuerteventura, alongside popular destinations such as Faro and Palma.

The airport says the increase builds on a strong start to 2026, with passenger numbers continuing to rise.

Chief executive Jon Bridge said the airport is approaching the one million passenger mark and expects the summer season to be its busiest since the pandemic.

He said: “It’s been an incredibly positive start to the year, and we’re looking forward to welcoming more passengers over the Easter period.

“Our teams are working hard to ensure travellers can start their holidays smoothly.”

Passengers travelling over Easter are being advised to allow extra time for their journey and check with airlines for the latest updates.

A total of 46,158 passengers are expected to pass through the airport between March 27 and April 12, with arrivals and departures almost evenly split.

Cardiff Airport said it continues to expand its range of destinations, including the addition of a direct service to Toronto, as it looks to strengthen its role in connecting Wales to international travel.

 

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