Shock result sends political shockwaves across Wales as Reform also surges in historic Senedd count

LABOUR suffered one of the worst defeats in its Welsh political history on Friday (May 8) after First Minister Eluned Morgan failed to win a seat in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency.

The dramatic result, announced following a tense count in Aberystwyth, saw Plaid Cymru emerge as the dominant force in west Wales, while Reform UK surged into second place and Labour was left without representation.

Under the new six-member proportional voting system introduced for the 2026 Senedd election, the seats were allocated as follows:

• Plaid Cymru — three seats
• Reform UK — two seats
• Welsh Conservatives — one seat
• Labour — no seats

The elected Members of the Senedd for Ceredigion Penfro are:

• Elin Jones (Plaid Cymru)
• Kerry Ferguson (Plaid Cymru)
• Anna Nicholl (Plaid Cymru)
• Susan Claire Archibald (Reform UK)
• Paul Marr (Reform UK)
• Paul Windsor Davies (Welsh Conservatives)

The result marks a devastating blow for Labour, which has governed Wales continuously since devolution began in 1999. The party’s top candidate in the constituency was sitting First Minister Eluned Morgan, but Labour’s vote collapsed across both Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion.

Plaid Cymru topped the poll with 31,943 votes, comfortably ahead of Reform UK on 23,003.

The Conservatives secured 14,789 votes and held on to representation through former Preseli Pembrokeshire MS Paul Davies.

Labour trailed badly on just 6,495 votes.

The full vote breakdown was:

• Plaid Cymru — 31,943
• Reform UK — 23,003
• Welsh Conservatives — 14,789
• Welsh Labour — 6,495
• Wales Green Party — 6,324
• Welsh Liberal Democrats — 4,613
• Gwlad — 802
• Heritage Party — 442
• Aaron Carey (Independent) — 368
• George Alexander Chadzy (Independent) — 286
• Paul Haywood Dowson (Independent) — 88

A total of 89,402 votes were cast, with 247 rejected ballots.

Turnout was confirmed at around 57%, significantly higher than many analysts had predicted for the first election held under the new expanded Senedd system.

The result had been widely anticipated as one of the key battlegrounds of the election, with journalists from across Wales and national broadcasters gathering at the count amid growing speculation that the First Minister could lose her seat.

As counting progressed through the afternoon, it became increasingly clear Labour was heading for disaster in the constituency, with Plaid performing strongly in Ceredigion while Reform UK made major gains across Pembrokeshire.

The new Ceredigion Penfro “super constituency” combines the whole of Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion under the new 96-member Senedd system, replacing the previous Westminster-style constituencies.

The result is likely to intensify questions over Labour’s future direction in Wales and represents a major breakthrough for Reform UK in west Wales politics.

Plaid Cymru supporters celebrated loudly as the declaration was read out, while Labour activists left the hall visibly stunned.

The defeat of a sitting First Minister in her own electoral region is expected to send shockwaves through Welsh politics for days to come.

LABOUR FACES HISTORIC DEFEAT AS COUNTING CONTINUES ACROSS WALES

LABOUR’S Deputy Leader in Wales has effectively conceded the Senedd election, saying the party will “not form the next government” as counting continued across the country.

Huw Irranca-Davies, Eluned Morgan’s Deputy First Minister and Rural Affairs Minister, made the candid admission on BBC Wales on Friday (May 8), in what will be seen as one of the most dramatic moments in modern Welsh political history.

He said the result was “not the end” for Welsh Labour, but accepted that the party now faced a major period of reflection over what went wrong, why its campaign failed to cut through, and how it had lost the confidence of so many Welsh voters.

Mr Irranca-Davies also said it appeared “likely” that Eluned Morgan would not return to the Senedd as a member for the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency.

If confirmed, that result would be a devastating blow for Labour and would leave the party without its First Minister in the new Welsh Parliament.

Labour MSs are expected to meet on Saturday to discuss their changed position and decide their next steps as a group.

Mr Irranca-Davies avoided a direct answer when asked whether he would seek to lead Labour in the Senedd if Baroness Morgan loses her seat.

He is widely regarded as a possible contender for the post of Presiding Officer if Labour’s final results are as poor as early indications suggest.

Counting began on Friday morning after voters went to the polls on Thursday (May 7) in the first Senedd election held under the new electoral system.

The old arrangement of constituency MSs and regional list members has been replaced by sixteen larger “super constituencies”, each electing six members.

The system uses the d’Hondt formula, which allocates seats proportionally according to party vote totals.

Once all votes are counted, each party’s total is divided by the number of seats it has already won, plus one. The highest remaining total wins the next seat, and the calculation is repeated until all six seats are filled.

The process has drawn criticism from some voters and commentators, who say it is difficult to understand.

Former Labour minister Harriet Harman also criticised the Welsh voting system this week, describing it as overly complicated.

However, the method was first chosen by Tony Blair’s Labour Government ahead of the first Senedd election in 1999. Welsh Labour also rejected alternatives, including the Single Transferable Vote, when the new system was designed.

Critics of the reforms say the counting method itself has received too much attention, while the more serious change has been the creation of vast multi-member constituencies, which have weakened the direct link between voters and individual elected representatives.

Labour has dominated Welsh politics for more than a century.

At every General Election since 1922, Labour has been the largest party in Wales in terms of seats won. Since devolution began in 1999, it has also been the largest party in the Senedd and has led every Welsh Government.

As recently as June 2024, Labour won 27 of Wales’s 32 Westminster seats.

But that record appeared to count for little as voters went to the polls this week, with early briefings suggesting Labour had suffered serious damage in both its traditional heartlands and in West Wales.

As polls closed on Thursday night, Labour figures were already briefing broadcasters about the scale of the reverse.

One report suggested the party’s performance in the South Wales Valleys had been disastrous, while the BBC later reported that a senior Labour source had described results in West Wales as “bloody” and “challenging”.

At this stage, however, the full picture remains unclear.

It is also possible that Labour figures have deliberately played down expectations, in the hope of presenting anything short of total collapse as a better result than feared.

If the opinion polls and early indications prove accurate, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK could emerge as the largest forces in the next Welsh Parliament.

Such a result would represent a political earthquake in Wales and could bring an end to Labour’s unbroken control of devolved government.

MORE TO FOLLOW

Wales waits for results as first election under new voting system reaches count stage

COUNTING is underway across Wales today as voters await the results of one of the most important Senedd elections since devolution.

Ballot boxes were opened this morning after polling stations closed at 10:00pm on Thursday (May 7), with all 16 new Senedd constituencies now counting votes under a completely changed electoral system.

For the first time, Wales is electing 96 Members of the Senedd, up from 60, with six MSs to be returned in each constituency.

Voters had one ballot paper and one vote, choosing a party or independent candidate rather than voting for an individual constituency candidate and a regional list, as happened under the previous system.

Seats will be allocated using the D’Hondt method, meaning the final results in each area may depend on narrow margins between parties.

The new system has also created new political battlegrounds, including Ceredigion Penfro, which brings together large parts of Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion.

Locally, attention will be on how Labour, Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives, Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and independents perform in what has been one of the most unpredictable elections in recent Welsh history.

The election comes at a critical moment for Welsh politics, with Labour seeking to retain its long-standing dominance in Cardiff Bay, Plaid Cymru hoping to make major gains, Reform UK looking to break through, and the Conservatives fighting to hold ground after a difficult period nationally.

Because each constituency elects six members, the count is not simply a case of declaring one winner. Officials must calculate how many seats each party has won, and then allocate those seats to candidates in the order they appear on party lists.

That means list position is crucial. If a party wins one seat, its first-placed candidate is elected. If it wins two, the first two names on its list are returned.

Results are expected throughout Friday, although close contests and possible recounts could delay some declarations.

The outcome will determine not only who represents Wales in the next Senedd, but also who is best placed to form the next Welsh Government.

More to follow as results are declared.