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Politics

Warning against “undemocratic” 10% recall threshold for Senedd Members

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A 10% THRESHOLD for voters to remove Senedd members from office between elections would be undemocratic, the standards commissioner warned.

Douglas Bain, who investigates complaints against Senedd members, gave evidence to a standards committee inquiry looking into introducing a system of recall.

He said: “I very much welcome anything that will strengthen the ability of the public to call to account members of the Senedd. I think that should always be welcome.”

But Mr Bain warned that the closed-list electoral system, which will see people voting for parties rather than candidates from 2026, poses major difficulties.

He said: “If a member was recalled, the public – the electorate – would not have a choice of who might be elected, with the automatic election of the next person on the party list.”

He told the committee it would be “quite wrong” to replace a member in this way, without a byelection, “because only 10% of the electorate have said that’s what they want to happen”.

Stressing it’s a personal view, and ultimately a matter for the Welsh Parliament to decide, Mr Bain said: “I wouldn’t regard that as democratic or acceptable.”

He added: “There has to be some sort of mechanism to ensure actually it’s the will of not just 10% of the people that the member should be replaced, but it’s the majority of the people.”

Peredur Owen Griffiths, a Plaid Cymru member of the committee, pointed out that an MS could be elected with 40% of the vote yet removed with 10%.

Mr Bain suggested giving the standards committee powers to recommend disqualification could work as an alternative but this could be viewed as MSs marking their own homework.

Asked whether proxy and postal votes should be allowed as part of a recall mechanism, Mr Bain said the extra verification steps would unduly complicate the process.

Vikki Howells asked about Westminster’s criteria for triggering a recall petition: a prison sentence of less than 12 months, a ten-day suspension, or an expenses conviction.

Mr Bain, who was appointed in 2021, told the committee chair it is a good starting point.

The standards commissioner said there could be an argument for reducing the 12-month sentence threshold, above which members are automatically disqualified.

He asked: “Is it acceptable that someone who’s been sentenced to six months’ imprisonment … to remain a member of the Senedd? I think many would think the answer is ‘no’.”

Asked if members should be able to appeal, Mr Bain said in his experience of the complaints process, introducing an appeals mechanism risks prolonging the agony for everyone.

He recommended following Westminster’s model as closely as possible, adapting it for Wales as necessary: “Why try to reinvent a wheel that seems to work reasonably well?”

Mr Bain previously served as acting commissioner following Sir Roderick Evans’ resignation in 2019 after he was secretly recorded by Neil McEvoy, the former Plaid Cymru MS.

The commissioner, who is based in Northern Ireland, said a vote of the whole Senedd and a weighted majority should be required due to the serious nature of the recall decision.

“Otherwise it could be used by a party that had a greater number of seats in the Senedd simply to remove opposition, which would be wholly unacceptable,” he warned.

But Joe Rossiter, co-director of the Institute of Welsh Affairs, suggested a vote of the whole Senedd is unnecessary and risks politicisation, with members voting in party blocks.

Mr Rossiter, who joined the independent think tank and charity in 2022, described the members and elections bill as a missed opportunity to include a recall mechanism.

He told the meeting on June 3: “The public have a right to expect high standards from elected officials who are having an increasing impact on everyday life in Wales.”

Ms Howells asked whether politicians should be recalled for changing their allegiance, saying voters are often vexed and lack representation when an MS joins another party.

Mark Drakeford suggested members should be allowed to leave a political group but then only be able to sit as an independent for the rest of that Senedd term.

“They wouldn’t be able to hawk themselves around to different political groups,” he said.

The ex-first minister suggested it is unlikely the main parties will exhaust their 12-candidate lists for constituencies, saying: “You’d have to have a very, very substantial run of bad luck.”

Mr Drakeford said any independent MS would effectively be on a list of one but he argued it would be preferable for the seat to sit vacant rather than hold a by-election.

He told the meeting the unintended consequences of holding by-elections under the new fully proportional system outweigh the problems arising from a vacant seat.

Natasha Asghar, for the Conservatives, asked whether Wales should introduce a public body, similar to the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (Ipsa) in Westminster.

Mr Rossiter said an Ipsa-style approach could raise standards throughout the Senedd as an institution, not only among individual members, but it would require more investment.

Business

Pembrokeshire industrial jobs ‘could be at risk’ as parties clash over investment

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TRADE unions have warned that hundreds of industrial jobs in Pembrokeshire could be at risk without stronger long-term support for Welsh manufacturing, as political parties set out competing approaches ahead of the Senedd elections.

TUC Cymru says its analysis suggests 939 industrial jobs in Pembrokeshire could be vulnerable if investment in clean industrial upgrades were withdrawn, warning that policies proposed by Reform UK, and to a lesser extent the Conservatives, pose the greatest risk to industrial employment.

The warning comes as the union body launched its “Save Welsh Industry – No More Site Closures!” campaign at events in Deeside and Swansea, calling on all political parties to commit to a five-point plan to protect and future-proof Welsh industry.

According to TUC Cymru, jobs at risk locally include 434 in automotive supply chains, 183 in rubber and plastics and 75 in glass manufacturing. The union body says these sectors rely on continued investment to remain competitive and avoid offshoring.

TUC Cymru said its modelling focused on industries most exposed to closure or relocation if industrial modernisation and decarbonisation are not delivered. It argues that without sustained public and private investment, Welsh manufacturing faces further decline.

A GMB member working at Valero in Pembrokeshire said: “It’s clear Nigel Farage has no clear plan. I can see this industry collapsing under his policies. We need support, not division. His way will lead to job losses across the board and the lights will go out.”

The union body stressed that all parties need to strengthen their industrial policies, but claimed Reform UK’s stated opposition to net zero-related investment would place the largest number of jobs at risk across Wales, estimating that almost 40,000 industrial jobs nationally could be affected. Conservative policies were also criticised, though the TUC said the likelihood of job losses under the Conservatives was lower.

Labour has rejected claims that Welsh industry is being neglected, pointing to recent investment announcements made at the Wales Investment Summit, where more than £16bn worth of projects were highlighted as being in the pipeline across Wales.

Ministers said the summit demonstrated growing investor confidence, with projects linked to clean energy, advanced manufacturing, ports, digital infrastructure and battery storage, and thousands of jobs expected as schemes move from planning into delivery.

Labour has argued that public investment is being used to unlock private sector funding, particularly in industrial regions, and says modernising industry is essential to keeping Welsh manufacturing competitive while protecting long-term employment.

At UK level, the party has also highlighted its National Wealth Fund and GB Energy commitments, which it says will support domestic supply chains, reduce long-term energy costs for industry and help secure both existing and future jobs.

Opposition parties and some business groups have questioned whether all announced projects will translate into permanent employment, arguing that greater clarity is needed on timescales and delivery.

Reform UK has argued that scrapping net zero policies would cut public spending and reduce costs for households and businesses, while the Conservatives have pledged to roll back climate-related targets and reduce regulation on industry.

Unions dispute those claims, warning that higher electricity prices and a lack of investment would make Welsh industry less competitive internationally.

TUC Cymru President Tom Hoyles said Welsh industry needed urgent action from all parties to survive and thrive in the 21st century, warning that policies which sought to turn back the clock could put thousands of Welsh jobs at risk.

With industrial areas including Flintshire, Neath Port Talbot and Carmarthenshire also identified as facing significant pressures, the future of Welsh manufacturing is expected to remain a key political issue in the run-up to the Senedd elections.

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Education

School leaders deliver Christmas cards to Senedd calling for fair funding

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SCHOOL leaders from across Wales are delivering Christmas cards to the Senedd today in a symbolic call for fair funding for schools.

The cards, one for every Senedd member, are being delivered by school leaders’ union NAHT Cymru, urging politicians to give children in Wales what it describes as the “best Christmas gift” – a fully and fairly funded education.

NAHT Cymru national secretary Laura Doel and president Kerina Hanson are gathering outside the Senedd at 1:00pm today before handing the cards in at the Senedd reception.

The action follows the union’s warning last week that while £339m came to the Welsh Government as a result of increased education spending in England for the 2026/27 draft budget, only £39m has so far been allocated to core school budgets in Wales.

Earlier this week, an additional £112.8m was allocated to local government following a budget agreement between the Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru, with some of that funding expected to reach schools.

However, NAHT Cymru says the additional money will fall well short of what is needed. The Welsh Local Government Association has predicted a £137m shortfall in school budgets in Wales for the next financial year, while local authorities are also facing a £200m deficit in social care funding.

The union has also raised concerns that the First Minister has declined to explain how the £339m of additional education funding has been allocated, prompting calls for urgent and transparent scrutiny of the budget.

Speaking ahead of the card delivery, Laura Doel said: “Christmas is a time of giving, and we’re urging the Welsh Government to give schools in Wales the funding they rightfully deserve.

“The money that comes to Wales for education should be spent on education, yet we know much of it has never reached schools. We urgently need clarity on where this money has gone and to see greater investment going directly to pupils.

“The system is at breaking point, and without action we are facing an incredibly bleak new year for schools across Wales.

“We’re calling on every member of the Senedd to act this Christmas and give children in Wales the best possible gift – a fully and fairly funded education.”

The Welsh Government says education remains a priority, pointing to additional funding agreed with Plaid Cymru for local government, some of which is expected to support schools.

However, teaching unions and local authorities continue to warn that funding pressures remain severe.

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Business

Unemployment in Wales rises to highest level in a decade

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Welsh jobless rate hits 6.1% as Conservatives blame Labour and Plaid budget deal

UNEMPLOYMENT in Wales has climbed to its highest level in ten years, according to the latest labour market figures.

Statistics covering September and October 2025 show the unemployment rate in Wales now stands at 6.1 per cent — the highest since mid-2015. The figure represents a rise of 1.4 percentage points compared with the previous quarter and remains higher than the UK average.

The increase comes amid continuing pressure on households and businesses, with higher costs, weaker growth and ongoing uncertainty affecting parts of the UK economy.

The figures have prompted criticism from the Welsh Conservatives, who have blamed both the UK Labour Government and the Welsh Government for what they describe as a deepening employment crisis in Wales.

Commenting on the data, Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Energy, Samuel Kurtz MS said the Welsh Government needed to take urgent action.

“Labour and Plaid’s unemployment crisis is deepening; the Welsh Government must get a grip,” he said.

“Rachel Reeves’ latest budget has hit business hard, with unemployment rising every month under Labour and yet again higher here in Wales than elsewhere.

“Labour can’t be trusted with the economy. The Welsh Conservatives are offering a bold and costed tax-cutting agenda to kickstart growth, including the abolition of stamp duty and cuts to business rates, but Plaid and Labour’s stitch-up of a budget deal will mean more of the same economic decline.”

The Welsh Government has previously argued that employment figures are influenced by wider global and UK-wide economic challenges, as well as long-standing structural issues within the Welsh economy, including lower average wages and higher levels of economic inactivity.

Ministers have pointed to investment in skills, apprenticeships and infrastructure as part of efforts to support jobs and stimulate growth, while also noting that key economic levers remain reserved to Westminster.

Economists caution that quarterly unemployment figures can fluctuate and should be viewed alongside longer-term trends, including economic inactivity and underemployment.

However, with unemployment now at its highest level for a decade, pressure is increasing on both the UK and Welsh governments to demonstrate how their economic policies will deliver sustained job growth in Wales.

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