WALES’ unwanted title as the nation with the highest “in-country” imprisonment rate in western Europe is set to be solidified due to the expansion of HMP Parc.

The warning came as the expansion, which was approved despite the prison reaching a record 17 deaths in 2024, is projected to push the rate to 178 per 100,000 population.

Analysis by Wales Governance Centre warned the projected rate will surpass the average for the whole of Europe (177 per 100,000) and that of anywhere else in western Europe.

The “in-country” rate refers to people held in Welsh prisons, including those from England, with 167 per 100,000 currently compared with 139 per 100,000 across the border.

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) decision to add 345 places at HMP Parc will increase the prison place surplus in Wales from 393 to an estimated 738 places, fuelling concerns about the country being used to “absorb prisoner overflows from England”.

Appearing before the Senedd’s equality committee on Monday December 15, Rob Jones, a lecturer at Cardiff University, questioned the logic of expanding the Bridgend prison.

He said: “I don’t quite understand why that decision was taken to expand that prison at that particular time – one, given the safety problems that have been widely reported on and, secondly, Wales already has the highest ‘in-country’ imprisonment rate in western Europe.”

Pressed about the reasons for the “enormously high” rate, Dr Jones pointed to the impact of poverty in Wales. He raised the example of Finland which has a rate of 51 per 100,000.

The “ill-judged” plans to extend HMP Parc were approved by Bridgend Council in November and Dr Jones urged Welsh ministers to ask the UK Government to think again.

He said: “I don’t see any reason why Parc should be expanded when there are still no answers about Wales’ imprisonment rate… I think there needs to be a very serious conversation about tackling overimprisonment in Wales, not just overcrowding.”

Since HMP Berwyn in Wrexham opened in 2017, the average number of prisoners held in Wales has increased by 34%, according to a Wales Governance Centre briefing.

The report found the number of prisoners held in England would need to increase by more than 21,000 to equal the rate in Wales following the proposed expansion.

Dr Jones told the committee: “If the Welsh Government is serious about its… commitment to reduce the number of people in prison in Wales – now is the time to show it.”

His latest factfile on imprisonment showed a record number of deaths (21) across the Welsh prison estate in 2024. Of the 17 at HMP Parc, eight were attributed to natural causes.

He said: “I think the natural cause deaths are the elephant in the room actually when we think about deaths in prison. [That’s] not to say those others that we saw, particularly at Parc last year with regards to substances, are not, of course, to be taken seriously.”

Dr Jones expressed concerns about the standards of health care in prisons, which is devolved to Wales, with the average life expectancy of prisoners “significantly lower”.

Asked about housing, Dr Jones said the “jagged edge” of Wales’ justice system is “alive and well” when it comes to homelessness and prisoner release. He warned councils, housing services and probation cannot deal with the “churn” created by short-term sentences.

Labour’s Mick Antoniw asked about people from black or minority ethnic backgrounds being disadvantaged “in just about every respect of the criminal justice system”.

Dr Jones replied: “I don’t think I’ve seen any real improvement nor change,” warning of “zero” investment in research on criminal justice in Wales.

He pointed to evidence of two-tier sentencing and cautioned Wales is “completely lost” in the context of an England-and-Wales justice system. He raised the danger of recommendations – such as those from the Lammy review and Thomas commission – sitting on a shelf.

Jane Dodds, the Liberal Democrats’ leader in Wales, asked about a high and growing proportion of Welsh prisoners held on remand before their trial or sentencing.

Dr Jones warned of a lack of understanding to explain a 10% increase in prisoners on remand in 2024 (804) after reaching record levels in 2023 (730).

He raised the example of Welsh ministers’ women’s justice blueprint, with half of magistrates saying they had never heard of the plan which promotes alternatives to remand.

On a lack of “vital” information about parental imprisonment, the lecturer said he was led on a “merry dance” before his FoI for Welsh data was rejected on cost grounds.

Asked about short-term sentences for women, Dr Jones said: “There never really seems to be any determined effort to get to the bottom of problems.”

A PLEA to not “pluck the heart out of a community” by closing a Pembrokeshire village school was heard by councillors just days after a consultation into its future was launched.

At the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council, members received a petition opposing the potential closure of Ysgol Clydau, Tegryn, which had generated 648 responses on the council’s own website, meaning it crossed the threshold to be heard at full council.

A council statement accompanying the launch of the consultation said: “At its meeting on May 8, Pembrokeshire County Council considered a report of the School Modernisation Working Group which outlined the findings of a review of education provision in the Preseli area.

“In particular the review considered the extent of surplus school places in the area, set against a significant decline in the pupil population.”

The Ysgol Clydau petition states: “We demand that Pembrokeshire County Council reconsider its decision to close Ysgol Clydau and instead prioritise the needs of our community by keeping the school open. We oppose the closure of Ysgol Clydau and call for full public scrutiny before any decision is made.

“We urge you to engage in a meaningful dialogue with the community, listen to our concerns, and work with us to find alternative solutions that support the needs of our children and families.”

Sarah Farnden

Speaking at the meeting on behalf of the petitioners, Sarah Farnden, in an emotive plea, said the school was “not just a school but a sanctuary, a nurturing environment,” which offered “warmth, belonging and safety”.

“A village without a school becomes a village without families, a village without families becomes a village without a future,” she told members, adding: “Ysgol Clydau is not in debt, it’s not overspent, we’ve done everything asked of us, so why are we being punished?

“There has been a school on this site for 145 years, if you close Ysgol Clydau you are not closing a building you are closing a heritage; we are not here to fight you, we are here to beg you.”

Cllr Iwan Ward

Local member Cllr Iwan Ward said: “The decision of Pembrokeshire County Council to release this consultation on the closure a few days before Christmas is extremely disappointing, a time of year families should be concentrating on being together, not a time to have to face the threat of losing the heart of our community.”

To applause from the gallery, he added: “It’s not a matter of numbers on a paper, it’s a moral matter; the school is much more than four walls, it’s a safe place for children to grow and a cornerstone of community spirit.

“Closing a school like this rips the heart out of rural life, to threaten a school that isn’t failing is an action I cannot, and am not willing to, take quietly.

“I will stand with the staff, the governors, and the children also.”

Members heard the consultation had been expected to launch back in September but had been delayed due to staffing issues; its 42-day period due to now end in late January.

Members agreed to note the petition ahead of the consultation end, recommendations on the school’s future expected to be decided in March.

The final word went to Sarah Farnden, who said: “We’re not asking for special treatment, we’re asking for fairness and compassion; do not pluck the heart out of the community.”

TRADE unions have warned that hundreds of industrial jobs in Pembrokeshire could be at risk without stronger long-term support for Welsh manufacturing, as political parties set out competing approaches ahead of the Senedd elections.

TUC Cymru says its analysis suggests 939 industrial jobs in Pembrokeshire could be vulnerable if investment in clean industrial upgrades were withdrawn, warning that policies proposed by Reform UK, and to a lesser extent the Conservatives, pose the greatest risk to industrial employment.

The warning comes as the union body launched its “Save Welsh Industry – No More Site Closures!” campaign at events in Deeside and Swansea, calling on all political parties to commit to a five-point plan to protect and future-proof Welsh industry.

According to TUC Cymru, jobs at risk locally include 434 in automotive supply chains, 183 in rubber and plastics and 75 in glass manufacturing. The union body says these sectors rely on continued investment to remain competitive and avoid offshoring.

TUC Cymru said its modelling focused on industries most exposed to closure or relocation if industrial modernisation and decarbonisation are not delivered. It argues that without sustained public and private investment, Welsh manufacturing faces further decline.

A GMB member working at Valero in Pembrokeshire said: “It’s clear Nigel Farage has no clear plan. I can see this industry collapsing under his policies. We need support, not division. His way will lead to job losses across the board and the lights will go out.”

The union body stressed that all parties need to strengthen their industrial policies, but claimed Reform UK’s stated opposition to net zero-related investment would place the largest number of jobs at risk across Wales, estimating that almost 40,000 industrial jobs nationally could be affected. Conservative policies were also criticised, though the TUC said the likelihood of job losses under the Conservatives was lower.

Labour has rejected claims that Welsh industry is being neglected, pointing to recent investment announcements made at the Wales Investment Summit, where more than £16bn worth of projects were highlighted as being in the pipeline across Wales.

Ministers said the summit demonstrated growing investor confidence, with projects linked to clean energy, advanced manufacturing, ports, digital infrastructure and battery storage, and thousands of jobs expected as schemes move from planning into delivery.

Labour has argued that public investment is being used to unlock private sector funding, particularly in industrial regions, and says modernising industry is essential to keeping Welsh manufacturing competitive while protecting long-term employment.

At UK level, the party has also highlighted its National Wealth Fund and GB Energy commitments, which it says will support domestic supply chains, reduce long-term energy costs for industry and help secure both existing and future jobs.

Opposition parties and some business groups have questioned whether all announced projects will translate into permanent employment, arguing that greater clarity is needed on timescales and delivery.

Reform UK has argued that scrapping net zero policies would cut public spending and reduce costs for households and businesses, while the Conservatives have pledged to roll back climate-related targets and reduce regulation on industry.

Unions dispute those claims, warning that higher electricity prices and a lack of investment would make Welsh industry less competitive internationally.

TUC Cymru President Tom Hoyles said Welsh industry needed urgent action from all parties to survive and thrive in the 21st century, warning that policies which sought to turn back the clock could put thousands of Welsh jobs at risk.

With industrial areas including Flintshire, Neath Port Talbot and Carmarthenshire also identified as facing significant pressures, the future of Welsh manufacturing is expected to remain a key political issue in the run-up to the Senedd elections.