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Wales hurtling towards 10,000 care home bed deficit over next decade

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EXPERTS have warned there will be desperate shortage of 10,000 care home beds in Wales over the next decade.

The alert has been raised specialist business property adviser Christie & Co who say there is a growing need for new, “future proof” care homes to meet the need.

Their prediction comes at a time when demand is spiralling upwards, with the over 85 population set to double over the next 20 years.

According to sector champions Care Forum Wales (CFW) the “alarming figures” illustrated the need for social care to be funded properly for existing homes to survive and encourage the development of new ones.

CFW warned that Wales was “sleepwalking into disaster” because the growing shortage of care home beds would pile pressure on the beleaguered NHS when hospitals were already virtually at breaking point.

Building new care homes is a costly business as Gwynedd and Flintshire county councils have shown recently.

They have plans to build two new facilities with a total of around 100 beds between them at an estimated cost of more than £250,000 per bed.

If their figures are correct that would mean it would mean it would cost £400 million for the extra beds needed in North Wales and £2.5 billion for the whole of Wales over the next 10 years.

Worryingly, Christie & Co also revealed in the report  that 40 elderly care homes in Wales closed and only four opened between 2020 and 2023 – with no new ones in North Wales.

Among the closures in North Wales were Trewythen Hall in Gresford, Bay Court in Kinmel Bay, Gwastad Hall in Cefn y Bedd and Morfa Newydd in Greenfield with the loss of more than 160 beds.

CFW Chair Mario Kreft MBE said: “The report from Christie & Co paints a bleak picture an illustrates how the existing crisis is going to get even worse, creating a double whammy for our overstretched hospitals which have rows of ambulances queuing outside and patients on trolleys in corridors.

“Instead of being able to build more care homes to meet growing demand, we are seeing more and more care home closures.

“The cost of building new care homes and replacing the beds we are losing now is absolutely eye-watering.

“Our public finances in Wales are already under pressure so where is this money coming from?

“The way care homes are funded in Wales is a total postcode lottery with 29 variations on a theme, with most of social care being commissioned by the 22 local authorities and seven health boards.

“Within that there is a gaping North-South divide with five of the six county councils in North Wales paying the lowest fees, arrived at by a fee-fixing cartel known as the North Wales Regional Fees Group.

“The one shining exception is Conwy Council where earlier this year announced inflation-busting plans to increase fees by up to 20% after warnings that care homes were at risk of financial meltdown and closure.

“Following a long-running campaign by Care Forum Wales they have introduced fairer fees which reflect the actual cost of providing care for vulnerable people in privately run homes, including those with dementia.

“That came about because Conwy broke away from the North Wales Regional Fees Group and took our advice by  commissioning leading healthcare economists Laing & Buisson to analyse the true costs of care providers for the current year.

“It’s and internationally recognised tool to ensure that and those living and working in care homes can receive the best care, while at the same time, ensuring that the

“This is something we have been calling for over many years. All we want is fairness in line with the Welsh Government’s ‘Let’s agree to agree’ guidance.

“The fundamental issue threatening the viability of care homes is the unrealistically low fees that the vast majority of councils and health boards pay, fees that come nowhere near covering the true cost of providing care.

“Economically, it would make a lot more sense to ensure the financial security of our existing care homes instead of just relying on the forlorn hope that somebody is going to magically build enough new ones to  meet current needs and the increasing demands for social care.

“We’ve had a generation of injustice and it’s a generation where the institutional prejudice and discrimination against the private care sector in Wales has meant that those living and working in these fantastic community assets have not been valued.

“The problems we have in social care lead to the pressures in the NHS which lead of course then to extra costs being placed on the NHS which would largely be alleviated if local authorities had a more enlightened approach to social care.

“If Conwy can do it, the other five local authorities in North Wales can and should do it and of course, the money has always been there. It’s how you politically choose to spend it.

“Across the famous Foryd Bridge, which links Kinmel Bay and Rhyl, Denbighshire County Council is budgeting announced  much smaller increases of around 8% on rock bottom fees which have been immediately wiped out by inflation and the cost of living crisis.

“The vastly differing rates mean that Denbighshire will be paying £9,224 a year less per person than Conwy towards the cost of giving exactly the same level of nursing care to residents.

“It is simply an outrage. It’s an affront to the families that that bridge spanning the mouth of the River Clwyd can mean such a massive difference for vulnerable people, including those with dementia.

“The families of those people, who will often be expected to make up the difference,  need to ask why and quite frankly, it is a bridge too far.

“This is undoubtedly a stealth tax on families and quite frankly, the people making these decisions in those authorities should be utterly ashamed of themselves in the way they are betraying vulnerable people including those with profound dementia and their families.

“What this demonstrates is that there is an urgent need for us to look again at the way social care is funded.

“We need a national approach to eliminate this iniquitous postcode lottery so that the people for whom we provide care and our staff are treated fairly.

”This is too important to be left to local authorities and health boards alone – it has to be driven by the Welsh Government.”

Pictured: Mario Kreft MBE, Chair of Care Forum Wales

Community

Community concerns grow after MOD’s ‘shambolic’ radar consultations

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PROTESTS erupted at the Ministry of Defence’s public engagement events in Solva and St Davids on September 13 and 14, with demonstrators criticising the proceedings as disorganised and insufficient.

The campaign group, PARC Against DARC, formed in May to oppose the installation of US military DARC radars at Brawdy, orchestrated significant turnout. Demonstrators maintained a consistent presence at the events, while PARC also hosted ‘The People’s Exhibition’ outside the venues, displaying objections to the proposed 27-dish radar array intended to enhance US military capabilities in space.

Attendees were equipped with ‘NO RADAR’ signs and many questioned the MOD representatives at the PR events. A PARC spokesperson reported widespread dissatisfaction among the public, describing the sessions as “utter shambles” where attendees received vague and conflicting responses from supposed experts. Concerns were amplified by an MOD official’s comment likening standing next to the radar to “putting my head in a microwave.”

Errors in local place names on invitation leaflets and non-committal responses regarding the construction’s impact, including potential increases in local traffic, further fuelled local unrest. Questions about the visual impact of the radars on the landscape were met with dismissive or uncertain answers.

The London PR firm Cascade, responsible for organising the events, was criticised for their handling of the consultations, with accusations of failing to adhere to the National Principles of Public Engagement in Wales. The firm was also unclear about their future public engagement strategy, asking for feedback on methods to employ, which raised questions about their preparedness and commitment to genuine engagement.

Amid the criticisms, the Ministry of Defence emphasised the strategic importance of the DARC project, known as the Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability. The initiative aims to secure long-term employment and enhance protection of essential satellite communication and navigation networks. According to the MOD, DARC will significantly benefit the AUKUS nations’ capacity to detect, track, and identify objects in deep space, thus bolstering safety and security in the Indo-Pacific region and globally.

However, not all attendees shared the negative sentiment. Jonathan Yaw Porter, who spent extensive time at one of the events, found the experience to be informative and reassuring. “I went wanting facts, and got them,” he said, acknowledging that while some aspects remain undecided pending planning permission, the information provided was largely satisfactory. “From the data provided, there is no evidence of increased health risks at the perimeter of the base,” he added, highlighting the use of electromagnetic radiation similar to that emitted by mobile phones and regulated under WHO standards.

Porter also noted the potential benefits of DARC for the local economy and the UK’s burgeoning space sector. “There looks to be many more positive aspects from such a development in the growing Welsh Space sector from the site, and the visual impact from the data provided is pretty limited,” he observed. His positive takeaways extended to the educational potential of the project, hoping it would inspire young people to pursue careers in engineering and aerospace.

Many felt however, that serious safety concerns were highlighted by unanswered questions regarding the radar’s radiation outputs and potential health implications, with nearly 4,000 studies cited by campaigners pointing to risks associated with high levels of radiofrequency radiation. Despite these concerns, the MOD withheld specific operational details, citing security reasons, with no assurance of public disclosure in future planning phases.

Further inquiries about necessary infrastructure upgrades, such as additional electricity pylons and the impact on local wildlife, were also left unanswered. The potential necessity for a new bypass road to support the project’s logistics was another point of contention, with community members doubting the feasibility of using current roads without significant disruption.

The MOD’s evasive responses have left many attendees dissatisfied, describing the consultation as rushed and confusing, with MOD representatives appearing defensive and at times dishonest. Critics argue that the MOD should replace Cascade with a Welsh organisation more in tune with local sentiment and capable of conducting thorough and transparent public engagement.

As the campaign against DARC intensifies, community members are encouraged to continue expressing their concerns and seeking accountability, with the aim of ensuring a more informed and considerate decision-making process by the MOD.

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Community

Historic Milford Haven port beacon gets multi million pound refit 

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A LIGHTHOUSE beacon that has guided more than a billion metric tons of shipping over six decades into the Port of Milford Haven has undergone a major refit.

The Mid Channel Rock lighthouse, bedded on an undersea reef and known by mariners as ‘the Pole’, has endured Atlantic storms for over nearly 60 years to warn ships of shallow rocks at the entrance to the Port of Milford Haven. In recent years it has also provided extensive weather and sea condition information to commercial and leisure sailors using the UK’s leading energy port.

The multi-million-pound project, led by engineers at the Port of Milford Haven, saw a 25 tonne steel sleeve lowered over the tower and strengthened with infill to reinforce the structure. One of the tripod legs that are drilled into the seabed to support the column was also reinforced and new electrical systems and weather monitoring equipment were fitted.

Shan McGarty, the Port’s Project Manager leading the scheme, explained: “This project has been long in the planning, taking several years to move from initial concept to completion due to the complexity of the task. Once works began they were delivered relatively swiftly despite the difficult working conditions we faced, including strong winds and heavy seas.”

“It is our job to ensure the safe navigation of these waters for everyone that uses them and that’s why an investment such as this is top of our priorities,” explained the Port of Milford Haven’s Harbourmaster, Mike Ryan. “Not only is the Mid Channel Rock lighthouse a highly visible mark for all, it’s also an essential part of our weather and sea monitoring systems helping us plan shipping movements,” he said.

“And for sailors coming from often heavy seas, this historic marker will continue to stand proud as a welcome to the sheltered harbour at the Port of Milford Haven for many years to come.” Mike added. 

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Community

Archbishop O’Toole announces new united archdiocese of Cardiff-Menevia

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IN a historic move for the local Catholic community in the region, Archbishop Mark O’Toole has announced the creation of the new Archdiocese of Cardiff-Menevia.

This decision, promulgated by Pope Francis today (Sept 12), coincides with the Feast of the Holy Name of Mary, and signals a new chapter for Catholics in South Wales and Herefordshire.

The Archbishop expressed his deep gratitude to Pope Francis for his swift decision, interpreting it as a mark of confidence from the Vatican. The creation of the united archdiocese follows a series of Open Listening Sessions earlier this year, during which both clergy and laity discussed the potential merger. The announcement will be read in churches across the region over the weekend of 14th-15th September.

In his pastoral letter to the faithful, Archbishop O’Toole drew inspiration from the Virgin Mary, who he described as the “first missionary disciple.” He encouraged the community to follow her example of faith and service as they embark on this new journey. “We are called to continue walking together on the path of the Gospel, deepening our relationship with Jesus,” the Archbishop wrote, urging the faithful to embrace Christ’s mission through acts of service.

The Archbishop’s pastoral letter further reflected on Mary’s role in both the joyful and sorrowful moments of Christ’s life. He emphasised her presence on the Way of the Cross and her deep understanding of the human experience, urging the community to follow her example in their own lives by embracing both joy and sorrow with faith.

The decision to unite the dioceses also comes as the global Church prepares for the Jubilee Year, themed “Pilgrims of Hope.” Archbishop O’Toole noted that Mary was the first “Pilgrim of Hope,” bringing Jesus to others with openness and courage. He encouraged the faithful to seek Mary’s guidance in growing closer to Jesus and sharing His love with those who do not yet know Him.

In his letter, Archbishop O’Toole offered a prayer to Mary, asking for her intercession in helping the new Archdiocese live out its mission. He called on the community to be “Pilgrims of Hope” in today’s world, embodying Mary’s love and compassion for all, especially those in need.

The formation of the Archdiocese of Cardiff-Menevia represents a significant moment in the history of the Church in the region, as it seeks to build on the legacy of both dioceses and move forward with renewed purpose and mission. Archbishop O’Toole’s message reflects a vision of unity and hope, urging the faithful to look to the future with courage, inspired by the example of the Virgin Mary.

In closing, Archbishop O’Toole asked for the prayers of the faithful, concluding with a heartfelt blessing for all.

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