Politics

Senedd budget set to increase by 16% amid expansion plans

Published

2 years ago

September 29, 2024

THE SENEDD Senedd Commission has unveiled plans for a 16% budget increase as preparations ramp up for an extra 36 politicians in Cardiff Bay from 2026.

The commission, which is responsible for support services and the Senedd estate, has today (September 27) published its £84.3m draft budget for next year.

It includes an extra £12.1m to cover costs including those associated with Senedd reforms, public-sector pay, upgrading lifts and IT, and replacing screens in the debating chamber.

The commission said the cash is required to deliver the biggest change since the dawn of devolution in 1999, with the 16.7% uplift supporting a 60% increase in Senedd members.

But the Conservatives criticised the “ballooning” costs of Senedd reform, describing it as the “wrong priority” while around one in five people in Wales are waiting for NHS treatment.

The 2025/26 draft budget includes a 9% increase in staff costs on the previous year, reflecting a 5% pay award in common with much of the rest of the public sector.

This includes a ring-fenced £456,000 to conclude 2024/25 pay negotiations with staff on lower pay, under £40,000 a year.

In the spending plans for the 12 months from April, £2m is allocated to the ‘Bay 2032’ project which is looking at options for offices as the clock ticks down on the current Tŷ Hywel lease.

Options thought to be on the table include building new offices, extending the lease, buying Tŷ Hywel or taking up a nearby property in Cardiff Bay.

An additional £900,000 – on top of the £1.8m allocated last year – would be spent on renovating the debating chamber, or Siambr, to accommodate more members.

Politicians are expected to move to Siambr Hywel in Tŷ Hywel, the red-brick building linked to the Senedd by glass walkways, while works are carried out.

This is where then-Assembly Members sat while the Senedd was under construction.

The Welsh Parliament’s corporate body is made up of the speaker or Llywydd, Elin Jones, and four Senedd members drawn from the main political parties.

Hefin David, the commissioner responsible for the budget, described Senedd reforms as an important step, pointing out that it was agreed by a two-thirds “supermajority”.

The Labour MS for Caerphilly said: “There are so many places across the world where democracy is under attack, so this is something Wales can be very proud of.”

Dr David argued the increase in the number of members will bring the Senedd in line with other devolved parliaments, enabling better representation and greater scrutiny.

He said: “This budget proposes a 16% increase in spending, to support a 60% increase in members, with every effort being made to minimise the cost to the public purse.

“It is important that we remain mindful of our own accountability and taxpayer value for money, whilst also balancing the need for an enhanced democratic system.”

In the past two financial years, the Senedd Commission budget was reduced by a total of £750,000 while £800,000 was spent on cost-of-living payments for staff.

If passed, according to the draft budget, the anticipated uplift in Senedd reform-related costs for 2025/26 will be £3.9m – which is equivalent to a 5.3% adjusted increase on 2024/25.

The Conservatives’ Darren Millar reiterated his party’s opposition to Senedd reform, arguing Wales needs more doctors, nurses and dentists – not more politicians.

Mr Millar said: “The cost to taxpayers of Senedd reform is ballooning even before the full extent of Labour and Plaid Cymru’s plans for more politicians are implemented.

“Spending additional millions on this vanity project as NHS waiting lists hit six successive record-breaking months is the wrong priority.”

By comparison, the Scottish Parliament’s budget for 2024/25 is £135.6m – roughly £1m for each member – while the figure for Wales is about £875,000 a member.

The commission stressed that every effort has been made to ensure value for money.

A spokesperson said: “In the next two years, the Senedd will undergo the biggest change since it was established in 1999 – becoming a parliament of 96 MSs, with greater power to hold the Welsh Government to account, develop new laws and better represent the people.”

Senedd members will vote on the budget proposals in November. With around two-thirds supporting the reforms, the commission budget is likely to be agreed.

But, with parliamentary arithmetic otherwise on a knife-edge, First Minister Eluned Morgan is expected to face a tougher time passing the Welsh Government’s budget early next year.

The Senedd Commission and Welsh Government both draw their funding from the Welsh consolidated fund which is paid into by the UK Government.

In May, Senedd members passed landmark legislation to increase the size of the Welsh Parliament and change its voting system from 2026.

Under the Act, the number of politicians will increase from 60 to 96 due to concerns that the small size of the Senedd leads to ineffective scrutiny of the Welsh Government.

For example, Caerphilly County Borough Council has more councillors at 69 than Wales has Senedd members.

The 32 constituencies used in July’s UK general election will be paired to create 16 for the next Senedd poll in 2026, with each returning six members.

Wales will move away from the current additional-member electoral system which uses a mix of first-past-the-post constituencies and regional party lists.

Instead, voters will have one ballot paper rather than two and future Senedd elections will use a full form of proportional representation.

Under the new “closed-list” system, people will vote for political parties rather than individuals and parties will control the order of candidates on lists.

News

Parties make final push as Wales prepares to vote in historic Senedd election

Published

2 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Campaign leaders criss-cross country in last-minute battle for crucial votes

WALES heads to the polls tomorrow (Thursday, May 7) after a frenetic final day of campaigning that saw party leaders, candidates and activists make one last push to win over undecided voters in what is being described as the most unpredictable Senedd election in modern Welsh history.

With polling stations due to open at 7:00am, parties spent Wednesday targeting key battleground constituencies across the country, including the new Ceredigion Penfro seat, amid growing expectations of a fragmented Senedd and a dramatic shake-up in Welsh politics.

The election is the first to be held under Wales’ new expanded Senedd system, with 96 Members of the Senedd being elected across 16 large constituencies using a proportional closed-list voting system.

Reform UK appeared to finish the campaign with significant momentum following a major rally on Tuesday attended by party leader Nigel Farage. The event drew large crowds and considerable online attention as Reform attempted to convert strong polling figures into seats in Cardiff Bay for the first time.

Farage used the rally to attack both Labour and Plaid Cymru, while positioning Reform as the party of “change” for disillusioned voters. Reform campaigners have focused heavily on immigration, cost of living pressures and opposition to what they describe as “wasteful government spending.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth spent the final day presenting his party as the main alternative to both Labour and Reform UK, insisting Plaid could “build a fairer Wales” while warning against what he described as “divisive politics.”

Labour figures, including First Minister Eluned Morgan and deputy leader Huw Irranca-Davies, urged voters not to “take risks” with public services, arguing only Welsh Labour could protect the NHS and local councils during a period of economic uncertainty.

Labour activists were heavily focused on turnout operations in traditional strongholds, amid polling suggesting the party could lose ground after decades as the dominant force in Welsh politics.

The Conservatives attempted to rally core voters with warnings about both Labour and Reform, while also focusing on farming, the rural economy and healthcare waiting lists.

In west Wales, Conservative candidates Paul Davies and Sam Kurtz spent the day meeting voters and carrying out final campaign visits across Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion, arguing their experience and local knowledge would be important under the new electoral system.

The Liberal Democrats and Green Party also maintained visible campaigns in several areas, hoping tactical voting and the proportional voting system could help them secure representation.

Across Wales, campaign teams handed out leaflets outside transport hubs, supermarkets and town centres, while social media campaigning intensified throughout the day.

Political analysts believe turnout could prove decisive, particularly because the new voting system means relatively small shifts in support could determine the allocation of the fifth and sixth seats in many constituencies.

The campaign has been dominated by debates over the NHS, farming, the economy, transport, tourism and the rising cost of living, alongside concerns about the future direction of Welsh devolution.

Polling stations open across Wales from 7:00am until 10:00pm on Thursday, with counting due to begin on Friday morning.

The Herald will provide live election coverage online throughout polling day and count day, including updates from count centres, candidate interviews and reaction as results emerge from across west Wales and the rest of the country.

News

Plaid Cymru projected to lead Senedd as Labour faces historic collapse

Published

2 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Final poll suggests Welsh politics could be on the brink of a major realignment

PLAID CYMRU is on course to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to the final YouGov MRP projection for ITV Cymru Wales before polling day.

The model suggests Labour’s century-long dominance of Welsh elections could be coming to an end, with Plaid projected to win 43 seats in the newly expanded 96-member Senedd.

Reform UK is forecast to finish second on 34 seats, while Labour is projected to fall to just 12.

The poll, based on responses from more than 4,600 adults between April 25 and May 4, puts Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29%. Labour is on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

Labour facing major losses

The projection points to a dramatic collapse in Labour support across Wales.

YouGov’s central estimate would represent a notional loss of 32 seats for Labour compared with the 2021 result under the new electoral system.

It would also be Labour’s worst result at any major Welsh election since 1906.

The model suggests Labour may fail to top the poll in any of the 16 new Senedd constituencies, and could return no members at all in four of them.

In west Wales, Labour’s support is projected to have fallen into single figures in some areas.

First Minister Eluned Morgan, who leads Labour’s list in Ceredigion Penfro, could also be at risk if the projection proves accurate.

Reform surge

Reform UK is projected to make major gains, rising from just 1% of the vote in 2021 to 29% in the final pre-election model.

The party’s support appears to be spread widely across Wales, though it is weaker in Cardiff and strongest in parts of the south Wales valleys.

One of the most striking projections is in Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr, which includes the Merthyr Tydfil area where Keir Hardie was elected as Wales’s first Labour MP in 1900.

There, YouGov’s central estimate puts Reform UK narrowly ahead on 34%, Plaid Cymru on 33%, and Labour on 14%.

Smaller parties

The Conservatives are projected to win just four seats, which would be their weakest devolved election result.

That would leave them one short of the five members needed to form an official political group in the Senedd.

The Greens are forecast to enter the Senedd for the first time, winning two seats in Cardiff.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to win one seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, keeping Jane Dodds in the Senedd.

No majority expected

No party is projected to win the 49 seats needed for an outright majority.

YouGov’s modelling suggests Plaid Cymru would be best placed to lead the next Welsh Government, but would probably need support from another party.

Plaid and Labour together reach a majority in most of the model’s simulations, while a Plaid-Green arrangement does so far less often.

A Reform-Conservative majority appears unlikely in the projection.

Under the new D’Hondt voting system, small movements in vote share could still make a significant difference, particularly for the final seats in each constituency.

Polling stations open tomorrow, Thursday, May 7.

News

Welsh Labour insists Senedd election remains ‘wide open’

Published

7 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

LABOUR has insisted the Senedd election remains “wide open” despite polling suggesting Plaid Cymru could emerge as the largest party after Thursday’s vote.

Deputy First Minister and Welsh Labour deputy leader Huw Irranca-Davies said the latest figures were “disappointing” for Labour, but argued that the result could still be decided by narrow margins in several constituencies.

Speaking on ITV Wales’ Sharp End programme, Mr Irranca-Davies rejected suggestions that the campaign had become a straight contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

He said: “The polling that we’ve had tonight would be disappointing for Labour, you can’t take away from it.

“But what it also shows is there are really narrow margins, particularly for that fifth and sixth seat, and that is where a lot of parties can make a difference, so it’s not a two-horse race.”

The comments came after a new ITV Cymru Wales poll placed Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29%.

Under MRP modelling for the new 96-seat Senedd system, Plaid Cymru was projected to win 43 seats, with Reform UK on 34.

Labour was forecast to fall to 12 seats, with the Conservatives on four, the Greens on two, and the Liberal Democrats on one.

The figures would leave Plaid Cymru short of an overall majority, but potentially in the strongest position to form a government.

Analysts have warned, however, that small shifts in vote share could have a major effect on the final seat totals, particularly under the new six-member constituency system.

Plaid Cymru’s Heledd Fychan said the polling showed that the race was between Plaid and Reform in many parts of Wales.

She warned that Reform could still emerge as the largest party if anti-Reform voters did not back Plaid Cymru.

Reform UK’s James Evans questioned whether the poll reflected what the party was hearing from voters during the campaign.

He said Reform was seeing strong support on the doorstep from people opposed to Labour, Plaid Cymru and potential coalition arrangements after the election.

The Welsh Conservatives also argued that they could still play an important role in a divided Senedd.

Tom Giffard said: “If you vote Conservative and you are a Conservative, you’ll get Conservative representation.

“No party’s going to win a majority.”

The Green Party, polling at 8%, could win two seats under the projection.

Green representative Philip Davies said small increases in support could make the difference in closely contested areas, particularly for the final seats in each constituency.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats, polling at 6%, are projected to return leader Jane Dodds, although party representative Tim Sly said the campaign had been focused on target seats where the party believed it could outperform polling expectations.

Voters across Wales go to the polls on Thursday (May 7).