Politics
‘Lazy voters led to Conservative win ‘
SHY TORIES’ were not responsible for David Cameron’s shock majority in the 2015 Genereal Elections, according to the respected polling analysts responsible for a new study of the election.
Instead, the pollsters claim that around 10% of people who said that they would be voting Labour in the build-up failed to do so.
It is a commonly held belief that people who are unwilling to express a political opinion are more closely aligned with the ideologies of the Conservative Party. However, analysts said that a last-minute drift away from Labour, partially as a result of an intensive ‘negative’ advertising campaign by the Tories, was far more influential.
Robert Worcester and fellow analysts from Mori, who along with other opinion polls were widely accused of misreading public opinion back in May, claimed that if that 10% had voted, then there would have been a hung parliament.
Nearly all of those who said that they would vote Conservative went on to do so, Mr Worcester added.
These claims are explored in greater depth in a study ‘Explaining Cameron’s Comeback’ which was recently published.
Also highlighted were Conservative gains from the Liberal Democrats, which accounted for 27 of their seats, and Scottish Labour’s catastrophic wipeout at the hands of the SNP.
Another of the study’s authors, Roger Mortimore, Professor of Public Opinion and Political Analysis at King’s College, London, said: “What really happened was that the Conservatives and Labour were in a draw – stalemate. Neither of them landed a punch on each other.
“But at the same time the Conservatives beat the Liberal Democrats and the SNP beat Labour.”
“Those 27 gains are the difference between a hung parliament and the Conservative majority they actually got. That is why we now have a Conservative majority Government.”
Mr Mortimore also suggested that it would be ‘very hard’ for Labour to regain a majority unless they overturned the SNP majority in Scotland.
Paul Baines suggested that the negative campaign run by the Conservatives, which stoked fears in middle England of a Scottish party being in partial control of England, was another major reason for their success.
Suggesting that evidence showed that people gave more credence to a negative campaign, Mr Baines said: “ Most people thought that the Conservatives used the most negative campaign – and of course, they did.”
Mark Gill said the two key tasks facing Jeremy Corbyn’s party were to rebuild in Scotland and take seats from the Conservatives before suggesting that they were nowhere near achieving either of these aims.
“Jeremy Corbyn has not started well amongst the general population,” he added, suggesting that the image of the Labour party had deteriorated, and was now seen as divided.
Plaid Cymru’s failure to take more seats in spite of Leanne Wood’s participation in televised debates was down to much of that exposure being in places (like England) where Plaid Cymru candidates were thin on the ground.
“It wasn’t really new for Welsh voters to see Leanne Wood,” he commented.
Business
Bluestone National Park Resort payments to county to end
A CALL to end a 20-year legal agreement for financial contributions associated with the creation of Pembrokeshire’s Bluestone National Park Resort has been backed by both the county council and the national park.
In related submitted applications to both Pembrokeshire Coast National Park and Pembrokeshire County Council, Bluestone Resorts Ltd asked to end a 2004 Section 106 legal agreement, used to pay towards various projects including enhancements to works including footpaths and bridges.
Bluestone has paid nearly £320,000 to date, and offered two further one-off payments to complete the agreement, reports for the two authorities have said.
Works have been predominantly in the area surrounding Bluestone, but include projects as far afield as Nevern, Solva, and Haverfordwest.
A supporting statement says that, since the agreement was made back in 2004, Bluestone has paid nearly £280,000, with the offer of a final fee of £113,000 being paid, spread over 2023, 2024, and 2025.
A report by national park officers, ahead of the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park Development Management Committee meeting of April 24, where it was recommended for approval, said: “Having considered the information submitted, officers consider that provided the two final payments [the 2023 having been made] are received the legal agreement has served its purpose and can be discharged.
“In order to ensure the two final payments are made, a modification to the Section 106 legal agreement is supported. This decision is supported by Pembrokeshire County Council, who have received a concurrent application which is also recommended by officers for modification.”
The report said the £280,000 figure presented by Bluestone actually amounted to £318,703.87, taking into account a 2023 payment of £38,891.73.
It concluded: “The authority is satisfied that subject to two further payments of £38,000 to be made in August 2024 and August 2025, the obligation no longer serves a planning purpose and can be discharged and as such the obligation should be modified accordingly.”
At the April 23 meeting of the county council’s planning committee, members backed the application by 11 votes to two, following a recommendation for approval by Cllr Brian Hall.
The following day, the related application came before national park planners, with three members leaving the meeting as they had declared related interests in the item.
Cllr Rhys Jordan, who had also been present at the previous day’s meeting, moved approval: “The economic benefit of this facility is huge to Pembrokeshire; whilst these contributions may come to an end, the contribution to the county is huge.
“Bluestone has been at the forefront of all things hospitality, and everything they do is with the environment in mind.”
That application was unanimously approved by members present.
News
Too many children in Wales living in poverty – Lib Dems want action
THIS week in the Senedd, the Welsh Liberal Democrats renewed their demands for the implementation of child poverty targets.
According to a report from the Bevan foundation, 29% of children living in Wales are currently experiencing poverty (an estimated 190,000 children).
The same report highlighted that the largest percentage of children living in poverty are from working households or in couple households.
The Welsh Lib Dems are now renewing calls for the Welsh Government to create a set of targets for reducing child poverty, which the party argues will allow for more accountability.
The party has previously called for the implementation of targets, citing recommendations from the Calling Time on Child Poverty Report published in November last year.
Commenting, the Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds MS said: “The latest statistics on childhood poverty in Wales paints a very distressing image of families across the country struggling to make ends meet.
Over the course of the last six years, the proportion of children in poverty has skyrocketed. Fuelled by worsening economic conditions and a complete lack of action from both governments in Westminster and Cardiff Bay.
We cannot act complacent about these figures nor accept the clear lack of progress in fighting child poverty, behind each statistic is a child that the state has failed.
It remains painfully clear that the Welsh Government is failing to make any meaningful progress in this fight, which is why they must follow through with the implementation of clear set targets that will allow for further accountability.
We as a party have continuously called for the creation of these targets and we will not be silenced. For the sake of future generations we urge the Welsh Government to listen.”
Education
Conservative calls for academies and free schools rejected by Senedd
THE SENEDD has rejected calls to introduce free schools and academies after a report found major challenges in Wales’ education system.
Tom Giffard led a Conservative debate on educational attainment, warning that Wales is consistently at the bottom of UK-wide league tables.
The party’s new shadow education secretary pointed to an Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) report on education in Wales which found low outcomes and high levels of inequality.
Mr Giffard told the Senedd the IFS report highlights the pitfalls of the Welsh Government putting all its eggs in the basket of a skills-based approach.
Criticising a failure to measure skills inequalities and pupil progress, he stressed that Wales’ lower performance is due to policy and approach rather than funding or the pandemic.
He said: “It seems the Welsh Government relies on Pisa results to tell the story but then, when those same results are all too disappointing, they are dismissed in equal measure.”
Mr Giffard, who previously worked in a primary school, said declines in Pisa results can be observed in almost every country that has adopted a skills-based approach.
Raising concerns about disappointing Pisa results, the South Wales West MS pointed out that Wales saw the lowest scores in the UK for every subject.
Heledd Fychan, Plaid Cymru’s shadow education secretary, warned that Wales’ schools are understaffed and facing difficult decisions due to budgets being at breaking point.
She criticised implementation of the Welsh Government’s additional learning needs (ALN) reforms, saying schools cannot realise the aims without the budget to bring them to life.
Ms Fychan said Plaid Cymru agreed with much of the Tory motion but her party would not support calls for free schools and academies.
Sam Rowlands described the IFS report as damning, warning that the Welsh Government’s education reforms have been disastrous and have widened inequality.
The Tory MS claimed the reforms are systematically holding back disadvantaged children, saying: “The most remarkable fact is that the performance of disadvantaged children in England is either above or similar to the average for all children in Wales.”
Mr Rowlands added: “The poorest in England’s schools are doing the same or better than the Welsh average, thanks to ambition, the academies and free schools.”
Samuel Kurtz, a fellow Tory, said free schools and academies have driven up standards in England as he argued a Wales roll-out provides an opportunity to improve outcomes.
James Evans, the Conservative MS for Brecon and Radnorshire, highlighted the party’s pledge to get 5,000 more teachers into Wales’ classrooms.
Buffy Williams, the newly elected chair of the Senedd’s education committee, said Wales is undergoing a profound transformation propelled by ALN and curriculum reforms.
The Labour MS for Rhondda stressed the importance of listening to teachers and allowing ample time for the reforms to take root in classrooms across Wales.
Altaf Hussain recounted a conversation he had this week with a headteacher at one of the largest schools in his South Wales West region.
The Conservative said: “The major improvements they have been delivering to attainment and addressing behavioural issues are all at risk because of cuts to funding.
“Vital work undertaken to improve the lives of young people with additional needs could be halted because they cannot afford to continue employing the support workers.”
Lynne Neagle recognised the scale and seriousness of work still ahead to improve Wales’ education system, stressing: “I am not, in any way, complacent about that task.”
Wales’ newly appointed education secretary, who takes over from Jeremy Miles, said sustained improvement in attainment will be among her top priorities.
She told the chamber: “My early focus has been to listen closely to schools and where it is clear that schools seek more scaffolding.”
Ms Neagle said the Welsh Government will work with trade unions and employers to reduce workload and eliminate unnecessary red tape.
The Conservative motion was voted down, 14-35, following the debate on April 24. The motion as amended by the Welsh Government was agreed, 26-23.
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