Politics
‘Lazy voters led to Conservative win ‘
SHY TORIES’ were not responsible for David Cameron’s shock majority in the 2015 Genereal Elections, according to the respected polling analysts responsible for a new study of the election.
Instead, the pollsters claim that around 10% of people who said that they would be voting Labour in the build-up failed to do so.
It is a commonly held belief that people who are unwilling to express a political opinion are more closely aligned with the ideologies of the Conservative Party. However, analysts said that a last-minute drift away from Labour, partially as a result of an intensive ‘negative’ advertising campaign by the Tories, was far more influential.
Robert Worcester and fellow analysts from Mori, who along with other opinion polls were widely accused of misreading public opinion back in May, claimed that if that 10% had voted, then there would have been a hung parliament.
Nearly all of those who said that they would vote Conservative went on to do so, Mr Worcester added.
These claims are explored in greater depth in a study ‘Explaining Cameron’s Comeback’ which was recently published.
Also highlighted were Conservative gains from the Liberal Democrats, which accounted for 27 of their seats, and Scottish Labour’s catastrophic wipeout at the hands of the SNP.
Another of the study’s authors, Roger Mortimore, Professor of Public Opinion and Political Analysis at King’s College, London, said: “What really happened was that the Conservatives and Labour were in a draw – stalemate. Neither of them landed a punch on each other.
“But at the same time the Conservatives beat the Liberal Democrats and the SNP beat Labour.”
“Those 27 gains are the difference between a hung parliament and the Conservative majority they actually got. That is why we now have a Conservative majority Government.”
Mr Mortimore also suggested that it would be ‘very hard’ for Labour to regain a majority unless they overturned the SNP majority in Scotland.
Paul Baines suggested that the negative campaign run by the Conservatives, which stoked fears in middle England of a Scottish party being in partial control of England, was another major reason for their success.
Suggesting that evidence showed that people gave more credence to a negative campaign, Mr Baines said: “ Most people thought that the Conservatives used the most negative campaign – and of course, they did.”
Mark Gill said the two key tasks facing Jeremy Corbyn’s party were to rebuild in Scotland and take seats from the Conservatives before suggesting that they were nowhere near achieving either of these aims.
“Jeremy Corbyn has not started well amongst the general population,” he added, suggesting that the image of the Labour party had deteriorated, and was now seen as divided.
Plaid Cymru’s failure to take more seats in spite of Leanne Wood’s participation in televised debates was down to much of that exposure being in places (like England) where Plaid Cymru candidates were thin on the ground.
“It wasn’t really new for Welsh voters to see Leanne Wood,” he commented.
News
Local MS raises concerns over viability of mine water heat projects
SAMUEL Kurtz MS, Welsh Conservative Shadow Minister for Economy and Energy, has expressed reservations about the feasibility of using mine water heat schemes as a solution to the rising cost of energy in Wales.
Speaking on the potential for these low carbon initiatives, which involve harnessing water from abandoned Welsh coal mines, Kurtz, from Pembrokeshire, said: “While I would never criticise ambition, projects such as this should not be pursued at the expense of more viable options previously explored by the former UK Conservative Government.
“To secure our energy future, it is crucial that Labour commits to nuclear energy, an area they have been hesitant to explore in the past. Additionally, there must be significant investment in developing floating offshore wind in the Celtic Sea.
“Ultimately, any initiative aimed at reducing energy bills is welcome, but it must offer clear value for money for the taxpayer.”
The comments from Kurtz come in response to news that energy bills could be significantly reduced through the use of low carbon heat schemes which extract heat from water in abandoned coal mines across Wales. According to the Coal Authority, about one in five properties in Wales is located above areas with the potential for such a scheme.
The temperature of mine water ranges between 10°C and 20°C, depending on the depth, making it a viable source of heat. The Welsh Government is currently investing in several low carbon heat projects, aiming to meet future energy demand while contributing to the decarbonisation of heating systems across the country. However, critics have raised questions about the cost-effectiveness and practicality of these schemes.
Work is already under way to explore mine water heat projects in Rhondda Cynon Taf, Caerphilly, and North East Wales. Research has indicated that approximately two trillion litres of warm water sit in old mine shafts across the UK, which could be tapped to support the transition away from natural gas, currently the primary source for heating.
Gareth Farr, leader of the Coal Authority’s mine water heat project in Wales, highlighted the potential for replicating the success seen in Gateshead, where the UK’s first large-scale mine water heat scheme is already operational. “From mine water heat in the North East of England, it has shown to be delivering heat at 5% below the gas heat price to customers, so that is really important especially during a cost of living crisis,” Farr said.
Ffynnon Taf primary school in Taff’s Well, Rhondda Cynon Taf, has already benefitted from a small-scale project, using the village’s natural thermal spring to heat the school and a pavilion. However, not all such schemes have been successful. A project in Caerau, Bridgend, was scrapped after a feasibility study revealed costs were too high, although the local authority has promised to explore other options in the future.
The Welsh Government remains optimistic about the role mine water heat could play in the country’s decarbonisation efforts. Ken Skates, Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Transport, and North Wales, stated: “With heating accounting for 50% of energy use in Wales, mine water heat could improve the sustainability of the places where we live and work.”
Despite the enthusiasm surrounding such innovative solutions, Kurtz and other critics are urging caution. They stress the importance of ensuring that public money is spent on schemes that provide tangible results, especially during a time of economic uncertainty. While the Welsh Government is pushing forward with renewable energy initiatives, including mine water heating, Kurtz believes the focus should remain on tried and tested methods, such as nuclear energy and offshore wind development, to secure a stable and sustainable energy future for Wales.
Community
Crymych Arms pub saved by the community is to expand
A PEMBROKESHIRE village pub which reopened its doors last year after being bought by the community has now been given permission for a restaurant extension and outdoor seating area.
Last December, the Tafarn Crymych Arms reopened after being closed in September 2021 when its current owners retired and put the pub up for sale.
Crymych Football Club coordinated the community purchase of the historic pub in the heart of the village, with volunteers raising more than £200,000 to buy the pub. They also secured a significant Community Ownership windfall from the UK Government.
A dedicated team had helped with repainting, wiring, moving the furniture and pool table, and sorting all issues ready for reopening.
Speaking at the time, former county councillor Cris Tomos who had helped with the purchase process “It is hard to believe that it was just one year ago from now, on December 13, 2022 that the first public meeting took place at the Crymych Market Hall to see if there was any interest within the community to take on the challenge of raising the funds and organising the process of purchasing and reopening the Tafarn Crymych Arms.
“The tremendous support over the following months soon demonstrated that people have missed having the traditional pub at the heart of the village.”
Since that successful reopening, Tafarn Cymunedol Crymych, through agent Harries Planning Design Management, has applied to Pembrokeshire planners for a dining room extension and external seating area.
The scheme was supported by Crymych Community Council which said: “We are pleased to see an application to develop a community resource.”
An officer report for the application said: “The proposed development is to erect a flat roof extension to the front of the building to create a dining room extension and lobby entrance area.
“A formal enclosed seating area which is partially raised would also be created to the front of the public house. The retention of pavement to allow pedestrians to walk across the front of the development, outside of the seating area is to be included within the scheme.”
The application was conditionally approved by Pembrokeshire County Council planners.
Business
Plans for holiday lodges near Tavernspite village refused
A SCHEME for an extra five holiday lodges near an existing lodge near a Pembrokeshire village has been turned down by county planners.
Alan McTear, in an application through agent Milsom Architectural Services, sought permission for three two-bed and two one-bed holiday lodges at Mountain Town, some 600 metres from Tavernspite.
Letters of concern had been raised over issues including a claimed visual impact, highway safety, and a claimed failure to comply with LDP policies.
An officer report, recommending refusal, said: “The proposal seeks to erect an additional five holiday lodges in a linear form, extending east and west of the existing single holiday lodge. The lodges would each have private parking an amenity areas and whilst the proposed site plan details a hedgebank boundary around the application site no details have been provided.
“The lodges would have a similar scale and design as the existing holiday lodge, they would have brick plinths and a timber clad finish to the external walls. The amount of development would be such that it would result in a significant increase in the built form of development which would extend into the countryside the whole along the whole length of the access track. It is considered that this would result in a significant detrimental impact to the character of the site and the surrounding rural landscape.”
It adds: “The proposal fails to comply with the relevant Local Development Plan policies.”
The application was refused on grounds including the scale of the accommodation, including the extension, would not be compatible with the countryside location, it would result in encroachments into the countryside, highway issues with an access lane, and it failed to provide a Green Infrastructure Statement.
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