Politics
‘Lazy voters led to Conservative win ‘


David Cameron: Helped to victory
by negative campaign
SHY TORIES’ were not responsible for David Cameron’s shock majority in the 2015 Genereal Elections, according to the respected polling analysts responsible for a new study of the election.
Instead, the pollsters claim that around 10% of people who said that they would be voting Labour in the build-up failed to do so.
It is a commonly held belief that people who are unwilling to express a political opinion are more closely aligned with the ideologies of the Conservative Party. However, analysts said that a last-minute drift away from Labour, partially as a result of an intensive ‘negative’ advertising campaign by the Tories, was far more influential.
Robert Worcester and fellow analysts from Mori, who along with other opinion polls were widely accused of misreading public opinion back in May, claimed that if that 10% had voted, then there would have been a hung parliament.
Nearly all of those who said that they would vote Conservative went on to do so, Mr Worcester added.
These claims are explored in greater depth in a study ‘Explaining Cameron’s Comeback’ which was recently published.
Also highlighted were Conservative gains from the Liberal Democrats, which accounted for 27 of their seats, and Scottish Labour’s catastrophic wipeout at the hands of the SNP.
Another of the study’s authors, Roger Mortimore, Professor of Public Opinion and Political Analysis at King’s College, London, said: “What really happened was that the Conservatives and Labour were in a draw – stalemate. Neither of them landed a punch on each other.
“But at the same time the Conservatives beat the Liberal Democrats and the SNP beat Labour.”
“Those 27 gains are the difference between a hung parliament and the Conservative majority they actually got. That is why we now have a Conservative majority Government.”
Mr Mortimore also suggested that it would be ‘very hard’ for Labour to regain a majority unless they overturned the SNP majority in Scotland.
Paul Baines suggested that the negative campaign run by the Conservatives, which stoked fears in middle England of a Scottish party being in partial control of England, was another major reason for their success.
Suggesting that evidence showed that people gave more credence to a negative campaign, Mr Baines said: “ Most people thought that the Conservatives used the most negative campaign – and of course, they did.”
Mark Gill said the two key tasks facing Jeremy Corbyn’s party were to rebuild in Scotland and take seats from the Conservatives before suggesting that they were nowhere near achieving either of these aims.
“Jeremy Corbyn has not started well amongst the general population,” he added, suggesting that the image of the Labour party had deteriorated, and was now seen as divided.
Plaid Cymru’s failure to take more seats in spite of Leanne Wood’s participation in televised debates was down to much of that exposure being in places (like England) where Plaid Cymru candidates were thin on the ground.
“It wasn’t really new for Welsh voters to see Leanne Wood,” he commented.
Business
Drakeford resists call to exempt children from tourism tax

MARK DRAKEFORD resisted calls to exclude under-18s from the Welsh Government’s plans for a tourism tax from 2027.
The finance secretary told the Senedd’s finance committee that exempting children from the levy as in some other European countries would lead to a “significant fall” in the tax take.
He said: “I see that you have heard from a range of voices who argue that particular groups ought to be excluded from the levy…. This is a broad-based tax with a low charge – if you narrow the base, the only way you can sustain the take from the tax is to put the charge up.”
Prof Drakeford said taking under-16s out of the £1.25-a-night levy would see the estimated £33m revenue fall to £21m, “eroding the chances that the levy will be of any use.”
He stressed: “If the committee wants to argue for excluding children from the levy, you are arguing for a higher charge on the people who are left – you can’t have both.”
Prof Drakeford pointed out: “Children buying sweets pay VAT. Children are not excluded by the virtue of being children from the taxation system.”
He defended the visitor levy bill after a report found the levy could lead to between 250 and 730 job losses and cost the Welsh economy £16m to £47m a year.
The finance secretary was questioned about the economic impact assessment by Calvin Jones, a professor at Cardiff University, as he gave evidence on February 12.
He said: “Professor Jones’ report deals with a set of complex considerations. It has, inevitably, to make a series of assumptions and deal with a series of uncertainties. It assumes, for example, that all 22 local authorities have adopted the levy from day one.”
Rejecting suggestions the report undermines the case for a levy, Prof Drakeford told the committee some witnesses exclusively referred to figures for a worst-case scenario.
He said: “I did think there were some witnesses who came before you who presented Prof Jones’ report as though it was a set of predictions rather than a range of possibilities.”
Prof Drakeford added: “Even if the impact was at the top end, you are talking about a few hundred jobs in an industry that employs over a million people…. This is not an industry, I think, that will struggle to accommodate the impact of the levy.”
Pressed about the timing with the sector still recovering from the pandemic, he said: “When some organisations have said to you ‘oh, not now’, what they really mean is ‘not ever’.”
Prof Drakeford stressed “There’s a long lead in, this is not an idea that has suddenly been put in front of the sector and there’s a long path in front of us as well.”
He said the earliest any council could introduce a local levy would be April 2027, adding that he expects only a modest number of local authorities to do so initially.
Peredur Owen Griffiths, who chairs the committee, raised the “cumulative” effect of policies such as national insurance and the 182-day rule for holiday lets to qualify for business rates.

Prof Drakeford replied: “We’re familiar with the argument about comparing apples and pears but that list, I think, is the full fruit salad because they’re all completely different issues.”
He told the committee many microbusinesses in the tourism sector will be no worse off after the UK Government’s decision to increase employer national insurance contributions.
Asked about introducing a day-visitor levy rather than an overnight tax, the former First Minister said: “I didn’t want to see the search for the perfect driving out the possible.”
Prof Drakeford rejected suggestions that families could upend their holiday plans over the proposed £1.25-a-night levy, arguing it will have a marginal impact.
He said: “There are so many other factors that will have an impact both on costs and people’s decision-making which will loom far larger than the visitor levy.
“On the whole, what we hear from the continent where this is commonplace is that visitor levies are broadly invisible to the end user.”
Prof Drakeford explained the bill would require councils to consult on whether to adopt a levy then report annually on the use of the revenue raised.
He told committee members: “The idea that you could easily slide a bit of that money away towards something else, I don’t think will be easy.”
Prof Drakeford said the visitor levy bill, which would create a fee-free register of providers, will be followed by a second bill on licensing accommodation in the autumn.
Community
Christmas council tax amnesty considered in Pembrokeshire

WHILE the bleak February winds blow across the land ahead of hopefully better weather in Spring, senior Pembrokeshire councillors discussed a Christmas festive cheer call earlier this week.
A Notice of Motion by Independent group leader Cllr Huw Murphy, before the February meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council’s Cabinet asked: “That PCC do not issue any summonses for appearance at magistrates court for non-payment of council tax during the month of December.”
It added: “At a Corporate O&S meeting on November 14 [2024] it was disclosed that since April 2024 PCC have sent out 14,000 reminder letters with regards to council tax (late payment) and issued 4,000 summonses for non-payment of council tax, which clearly evidences the financial pressure many Pembrokeshire residents currently face.
“December is for many families a festive month and although the debt does not go away the avoidance of any prosecutions during the month of December in the lead up to the festive holiday will indicate some empathy by PCC towards its residents under most financial pressure.”
A report for Cabinet members said the court issues the council with four weekly hearing dates approximately six months in advance, and Revenue Services does not hold council tax liability order court hearings in December as the pre-allocated dates would mean the hearing could fall close to Christmas Day.
It added that, to meet regulatory timescales, summonses are issued in late November and early December to ensure all documents are correctly served ready for a court hearing in January.
Members were recommended to retain the current practice to issue summonses in November/early December for the court hearing in January.
The report said, as of October 1 of last year, the council had council tax arrears of £7.512m, an improvement from the £8.384m at March 31, with a risk that not issuing any December summonses “would lead to a delay in the recovery of council tax arrears and a subsequent increase in council tax arrears”.
At the February Cabinet meeting, members heard Cllr Murphy was happy to either accept the recommendation or withdraw his motion having received the additional information.
Members agreed to support the recommendation.
Cllr Murphy is no stranger to festive cheer calls; in 2023 asking for the council to overturn a “mean-spirited” decision to end the free collection of trees in Pembrokeshire after Christmas.
That 2023 ‘Christmas tree call-in’ motion, supported by councillors Vanessa Thomas, Anji Tinley, Alan Dennison, Elwyn Morse, Michael James and Iwan Ward, was defeated by nine votes to four.
News
Independent Alun Wills wins Prendergast by-election by 39 votes

HAVERFORDWEST’S Prendergast ward has a new county councillor after Independent candidate Alun Wills emerged victorious in a closely contested six-way by-election.
Wills secured the seat with 199 votes (31.6%), defeating five other candidates: Kaleb Jenkins (Welsh Liberal Democrats, 160 votes), Mike Mathias (Welsh Conservative Party, 136 votes), Scott Thorley (Reform UK, 71 votes), Alison Tudor (Welsh Labour, 57 votes), and James Henry Purchase (Wales Green Party, 8 votes).
The by-election, held on Tuesday, February 11, 2025, was triggered by the resignation of former Conservative councillor Andrew Edwards. Edwards stepped down in December 2024 following a controversial tenure marred by allegations of racism. In 2023, he faced public backlash after reportedly stating that “all white men should have black slaves.” Although he withdrew from the Conservative group and served as an independent councillor following the scandal, he ultimately resigned from his role, citing family reasons.
The Herald at the time questioned if the recording of him saying those words was created by using Artificial Intelligence.
A shift in representation

Edwards originally won the Prendergast seat for the Conservatives in 2022, securing a decisive victory over Labour. However, his departure and the controversy surrounding his comments resulted in a highly competitive race that ultimately saw the Conservatives lose their grip on the ward.
Wills’ victory as an independent marks a significant political shift, reflecting voter dissatisfaction and a changing political landscape in Haverfordwest.
Priorities for the new councillor
Speaking after his win, Wills vowed to “insist on council tax value for money” and pledged to do his “utmost to revive the fortunes of Haverfordwest town centre.”
He will take office at a time when Haverfordwest’s regeneration remains a key concern for residents. Major projects such as the Western Quayside redevelopment and the proposed Public Transport Interchange are already in motion, with the aim of boosting the local economy and improving connectivity.
Additionally, Wills is expected to focus on tackling rising council tax costs, an issue that has sparked growing frustration among residents.
With an independent now representing the ward, the political landscape in Pembrokeshire continues to evolve. The question remains whether this result signals a broader trend of voters shifting away from traditional party politics.
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