Politics
Retailers’ no deal reality check
THE HEADS of the UK’s major food retailers, including McDonald’s, M & S and Asda, have written to MPs and dramatically spelt out their view of the risks of leaving the EU without an agreement.
The warning comes shortly after the revelation that Britain has begun stockpiling food, fuel, spare parts and ammunition at military bases in Gibraltar, Cyprus and the Falklands in case of a no-deal Brexit.
With all contingency plans routinely labelled ‘Project Fear’ by those Brexiters stuck on transmit instead of receive, the retailers have taken a significant risk in sticking their collective head above the parapet by trying to address a substantial issue which is rather glossed by those proclaiming the benefits and underplaying the downside of a crash out Brexit.
The letter is backed by the British Retail Consortium, which represents over 70% of Britain’s retailers by turnover.
The Government said that it was taking special measures to minimise the impact of a no-deal Brexit on supermarkets’ suppliers and insisted that food was not going to run out as a result.
“The government has well-established ways of working with the food industry to prevent disruption and we are using these to support preparations for leaving the European Union.”
The Food and Drink Federation, which represents thousands of food processors and manufacturers, has said a no-deal Brexit would be a “catastrophe”, with uncertainty undermining investment and constraining businesses’ ability to plan and export.
DEAL OR NO DEAL: THE LETTER
On behalf of our businesses and the wider food industry, we want to highlight to you the challenges for retailers and the consequences for millions of UK consumers of leaving the European Union without a deal at the end of March. While we have been working closely with our suppliers on contingency plans it is not possible to mitigate all the risks to our supply chains and we fear significant disruption in the short term as a result if there is no Brexit deal. We wanted to share with you some practical examples of the challenges we are facing.
Our supply chains are closely linked to Europe – nearly one-third of the food we eat in the UK comes from the EU. In March the situation is more acute as UK produce is out of season: 90% of our lettuces, 80% of our tomatoes and 70% of our soft fruit are sourced from the EU at that time of year. As this produce is fresh and perishable, it needs to be moved quickly from farms to our stores.
This complex, ‘just in time’ supply chain will be significantly disrupted in the event of no deal. Even if the UK government does not undertake checks on products at the border, there will still be major disruption at Calais as the French government has said it will enforce sanitary and customs checks on exports from the EU, which will lead to long delays; Government data suggest freight trade between Calais and Dover may reduce by 87% against current levels as a result. For consumers, this will reduce the availability and shelf life of many products in our stores.
We are also extremely concerned about the impact of tariffs. Only around 10% of our food imports, a fraction of the products we sell, is currently subject to tariffs so if the UK were to revert to WTO Most Favoured Nation status, as currently envisaged in the no-deal scenario, it would greatly increase import costs, which could in turn put upward pressure on food prices. The UK could set import tariffs at zero but that would have a devastating impact on our own farmers, a key part of our supply chains.
Our ability to mitigate these risks is limited. As prudent businesses we are stockpiling where possible, but all frozen and chilled storage is already being used and there is very little general warehousing space available in the UK. Even if there were more space it is impossible to stockpile fresh produce, such as salad leaves and fresh fruit. Retailers typically store no more than two weeks’ inventory and it becomes difficult to restock stores if the supply chain is disrupted. We are also attempting to find alternative supply routes but there are limited options and not enough ferries, so this could only replace a fraction of the current capacity.
We are extremely concerned that our customers will be among the first to experience the realities of a no deal Brexit. We anticipate significant risks to maintaining the choice, quality and durability of food that our customers have come to expect in our stores, and there will be inevitable pressure on food prices from higher transport costs, currency devaluation and tariffs.
We are therefore asking you to work with your colleagues in Parliament urgently to find a solution that avoids the shock of a no deal Brexit on 29 March and removes these risks for UK consumers.
Politics
Debate over single Welsh police force reignited amid merger reports
THE PROSPECT of merging Wales’ four police forces into a single mega-force has resurfaced, as politicians scrambled to respond to reports of an overhaul of policing in the new year.
Adam Price raised reports that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is considering cutting the number of police forces in Wales and England from 43 to 12 through mergers.
The former Plaid Cymru leader told Senedd members the reforms would represent the “biggest upheaval” of police forces since the 1960s.
Warning the Welsh Government was not consulted on plans to scrap police and crime commissioners, he said: “No change should happen – a merger for example – without full Senedd scrutiny and a Welsh democratic mandate.”
Mr Price suggested an all-Wales model – merging the four police forces, similar to what happened in Scotland in 2013 – could have benefits but said governance would be critical.
During topical questions on Wednesday December 17, he argued a single police force would need to be accountable to the Senedd, with powers over policing devolved to Wales.
The MP-turned-Senedd member urged the UK Government to rule out any cross-border mergers involving a Welsh force being absorbed into an English one.
Responding for the Welsh Government, Jane Hutt described the widespread media reports as “unhelpful, unconfirmed speculation”. But she confirmed the UK Government is expected to publish a white paper in the new year.

She committed to engaging with Sarah Jones, the UK policing minister, who was attending a meeting of the Welsh policing partnership board the next day (December 18).
Ms Hutt told the Senedd she has been assured the UK Government recognises the differing governance arrangements between Wales and England.
Conservative Altaf Hussain urged the Welsh Government to take the opportunity to abandon calls for devolving powers over policing and justice to Wales.

Dr Hussain said: “There is merit in having a single unified police force for England and Wales – if only to tackle dysfunctional forces like Gwent Police, who have allowed a culture of misogyny to persist amongst their officers and leaders.”
Ms Hutt suggested reforms would present a natural opportunity to consider the role of the Welsh Government and Senedd in terms of accountability for policing in Wales. She said the focus is on a phased approach, beginning with powers over youth justice and probation.
Jane Dodds, the Liberal Democrats’ leader in Wales, called for a clear timetable for the devolution of youth justice and probation. “We need more devolved powers,” she said.
Labour’s Alun Davies agreed, accusing UK ministers of putting Ms Hutt in an “invidious position” of responding to hearsay about a fundamental public service. He said: “This is the second time in two months… this simply isn’t good enough.”

Mr Davies criticised Labour colleagues in the UK Government for “clearly” not recognising calls for policing to be devolved and biting the bullet. “That needs to happen,” he said, adding: “It needs to happen as soon as possible.”
The former minister told the Senedd: “We certainly don’t want to see the nationalisation of policing that’s just been proposed by the Conservatives. We’ve never had a national police force in the UK – we don’t want one today.”
It was “groundhog day” for the Conservatives’ Mark Isherwood who reminded the chamber of the then-Assembly’s review of policing in 2005 when mergers were floated previously.
He said: “To recognise the regional cultural and geographical differences that exist within Wales, all agreed that Wales must be policed in regions.”
But Rhys ab Owen, who sits as an independent, argued Wales’ four police forces “make no sense at all” with Police Scotland showing a unified force can “flourish”.
Politics
Support for £27bn spending plans amid uneasy compromise
THE SENEDD has backed the Welsh Government’s “imperfect” £27bn draft budget following a late deal to prevent a “catastrophe” for public finances.
The 2026/27 spending plans passed with 24 in favour, 13 against and Plaid Cymru’s 13 members abstaining as part of a near-£300m deal with the Welsh Government. Ministers will unveil the final budget in the new year before a further crunch vote on January 27.
But scrutiny committees warned inflation based on “outdated” forecasts could see real-terms cuts, criticising a lack of preventative spending and “business as usual” funding for culture.
Leading scrutiny on December 16, Peredur Owen Griffiths, who chairs the Senedd’s finance committee, sounded the alarm about inflation figures underpinning the draft budget.
He warned that while health and councils would receive uplifts, these were based on forecasts from March that are already outdated.
Calling on ministers to publish an assessment of inflationary pressures alongside the final budget, he said: “Some areas face real-terms cuts unless funding increases.”
The Plaid Cymru politician also urged the Welsh Government to develop a plan to close a “persistent productivity gap” compared with the UK average.
Peter Fox, the Conservative chair of the health committee, said the NHS initially faced a “historically low” uplift of only 0.5% in real terms before the deal was struck.
Mr Fox made a compelling case for extra funding for “vital” palliative and end-of-life care services as well as more money for respite care for unpaid carers.

While welcoming an extra £180m for health and social care, he warned of a system buckling under pressures in relation to waiting times, staffing and an ageing estate.
“It’s essential to balance these short-term demands with longer-term transformation,” he said, calling for assurances funding for prevention is not lost to immediate firefighting.
This sentiment was echoed by Delyth Jewell, the Plaid Cymru chair of the culture committee, who lamented that the arts sector faces another year of “more of the same” real-terms cuts.
She pointed out that spending on culture in Wales ranks among the lowest in Europe.
Llŷr Gruffydd, chair of the climate change committee, raised concerns about infrastructure, pointing to the transport secretary’s admission that Wales has the UK’s oldest bus fleet.
Mr Gruffydd also criticised cuts to biodiversity, noting a 3.9% fall in day-to-day resource spending and an 8% reduction in longer-term capital funding amid a “nature emergency”.
Meanwhile, John Griffiths, who chairs the local government committee, welcomed a minimum 4% increase for councils but warned “frustrations continue” over the funding formula, which relies on data from the 1991 census.

He said: “We remain concerned that local authorities are still in a vulnerable position and continue to face the prospect of council tax rises, service cuts and job losses.”
His Labour colleague Buffy Williams, chair of the education committee, warned ministers failed to publish a specific children’s rights impact assessment for the 12th year in a row.
Heledd Fychan, Plaid Cymru’s shadow finance secretary, defended her party’s decision to abstain, arguing rejecting the budget could have led to thousands of job losses, council tax rises of 22% and the “very real prospect of bankruptcy for some of our councils”.
“This was a budget that, if it was left unamended, would have proved catastrophic for Wales,” she said, dismissing suggestions Plaid Cymru was “propping up” Labour.
But her Conservative counterpart Sam Rowlands criticised the budget as a failure that “does nothing” to get Wales’ economy moving nor get to grips with long NHS waiting lists.
Reform UK’s Laura Anne Jones added that the “cosy arrangement” between Labour and “their little helpers” Plaid Cymru “smacks of a government that has run out of ideas.”

Closing the debate, finance secretary Mark Drakeford insisted the budget deal was “good news for Welsh citizens” because the “catastrophe” of a failed budget has been avoided.
“We have secured that more ambitious set of outcomes,” he said, pointing to the £180m extra for health and social care as well as a £112m for councils as part of the deal.
News
Automatic voter registration pilots add over 16,000 people to electoral roll in Wales
MORE than 16,000 people were added to the electoral register during the UK’s first Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) pilots, according to results published this week by the Electoral Commission.
The pilots were carried out in Gwynedd, Newport and Powys, with a fourth, desk-based exercise taking place in Carmarthenshire. They were launched by the Welsh Government in 2024 under powers granted by the Elections and Elected Bodies (Wales) Act 2024.
Under the scheme, local authorities used existing public records – including council tax and education data – to identify and add eligible voters to the electoral register without requiring them to submit an individual application.
Electoral reform programme
The pilots form part of a wider programme of electoral reform in Wales, which has already seen the introduction of votes at 16 for Senedd and local elections, alongside efforts to improve accessibility and participation.
The Electoral Commission said the pilots demonstrated that barriers to registration could be reduced using data already held by public bodies, and that large numbers of people who would otherwise remain unregistered could be enfranchised through automated processes.
Although four local authorities were involved overall, only three pilots resulted in people being directly added to the register. Carmarthenshire participated through a data-matching exercise rather than live registration.
Wider UK implications
The findings have significance beyond Wales. The UK Government has already signalled its intention to introduce automated voter registration across England and the rest of the UK as part of future electoral legislation.
The Electoral Commission estimates that more than eight million people across the UK are currently not registered to vote. Concerns have been raised in recent years that Britain has one of the most complex voter registration systems among established democracies.
Supporters of AVR argue that using trusted public datasets could significantly reduce under-registration, particularly among young people, renters and those who move frequently.
Calls for expansion
Jess Blair, Director of ERS Cymru, said the pilots showed automatic registration was both effective and scalable.
She said: “These Automatic Voter Registration pilots have added over 16,000 previously unregistered potential voters to the electoral register in just three local areas. It proves that AVR works and should be in place across Wales for future elections.
“It makes life easier and simpler for voters and could help reduce the barriers thousands of people across the country face in playing an active part in our democracy.”
Ms Blair said the results also highlighted the potential impact of a UK-wide scheme.
“The fact that over 16,000 people were added in just three areas using only local authority data means the potential for AVR at a UK level, using more comprehensive national datasets, is huge,” she said.
Timing concerns
Despite the positive results, automatic voter registration will not be in place for the next Senedd elections in May 2026.
ERS Cymru said it was disappointed by the timescale and urged the next Welsh Government to move quickly to ensure the system is operational for local elections in 2027.
With the UK Government expected to bring forward legislation on electoral reform, campaigners say the Welsh pilots provide a clear model for reducing registration barriers and increasing democratic participation nationwide.
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