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Politics

How Labour won the argument

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By Matthew Paul

Even though Labour –according to Jeremy Corbyn– ‘won the argument’ last Thursday, the
Tories comprehensively won at the traditionally more important business of getting votes.
Simon Hart, Stephen Crabb and Jonathan Edwards all held their seats; the two
Conservatives enjoying comfortable majorities over Labour (though it was Hart, not Crabb,
who took Alun Cairns’ vacant job as Secretary of State for Wales).
Plaid Cymru, as predicted, had a pretty rotten night. They can take a little comfort from Ben
Lake’s solid win in Ceredigion, and from seeing their majorities creep up in Y Fro Gymraeg.
But the Party of Wales remains a party supported by only one in ten Welsh voters. Plaid
made no progress at all outside its core areas; indeed its share of the vote has (with a very
slight blip in 2015) been slowly on the slide for twenty years, from the 14.1% it won in the
2001 General Election, to 9.9% last Thursday. This is not a movement on the march.
Plaid’s aggressively anti-Brexit stance, and its ‘Unite to Remain’ alliance with wishy-washy
Britnat parties was a huge strategic error. Mistletoe-clad traditionalists in Y Fro know
perfectly well that the party is pro-EU and didn’t need reminding. Brexity boyos in the
valleys looking for an alternative to Labour found it a massive turn-off.
In Carmarthenshire West and South Pembrokeshire, Plaid’s vote share fell; Rhys Thomas
having failed to mention frequently enough that he’s a doctor and was in Afghanistan.
Jonathan Edwards will be spooked too. He lost half his majority in Carmarthen East &
Dinefwr, and the Conservatives smashed Labour into third place. With a bit of investment in
the constituency from CCHQ, there is every prospect of the Tories biting Jonathan on the
bum next time round.
While the doorstep in the Pembrokeshire constituencies had been showing solid support for
the Tories but no reason for complacency, over in Carmarthenshire it was apparent that the
Labour campaign had completely gone to bits. Labour Candidate Maria Carroll, though an
avid Corbynite, was for some reason unpersoned by her party and ordered to stay away
from Jezza’s big gig at Nantyci showground. The dear leader didn’t mention her or CE&D
once in his speech.
Rattled, Carroll put out a video in which she adopted the conciliatory tone of a dying gypsy
fortune-teller cursing the drunk driver who knocked her down: “your children and
grandchildren will SUFFER!” Even this inspirational message failed to turn things around.
Maria Carroll may have won the argument in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr; but only if the
argument centred on whether or not she would lose to both Plaid and the Tories, and get
the lowest vote in Carmarthenshire in the Labour Party’s entire history. To her credit, she
achieved both. She was fortunate not to face a credible challenge from the LibDems, or
Count Binface.
In receipt of this absolute shellacking from the electorate, many candidates would step
back, slightly abashed, and opt for a moment of quiet reflection. Not Maria. Erupting on
Twitter, she blamed every factor for her defeat except unpropitious astrological
convergences, her own incompetence, and Oh! Jeremy Corbyn. Broadly speaking, she

shared the view prevalent amongst members of the Corbyn cult; that the electorate got it
wrong.
Certainly, the analysis among Corbynites seems to be that it wasn’t the manifesto that got it
wrong; voters loved the classical socialist idea of taxing the rich until there aren’t any left,
then starting on the moderately well off. It definitely wasn’t the leader either; he is a good,
kind, honest, decent man who really cares for the poor. And, as we all know, there aren’t
any poor Jews. No, it was vile, billionaire-owned mainstream media like The New
Statesman, The Guardian and The Pembrokeshire Herald that brainwashed a majority of the
electorate into thinking Corbyn was an unpatriotic halfwit who surrounded himself with
commies, bomb-scatterers and anti-Semites. What made it worse was that they achieved
this by the sneaky, underhand trick of reporting things that Corbyn had said and done.
Carroll tweeted that she wants to see “an end to the abusive power of the media”, and even
expressed an aspiration to close the media down, so perhaps The Pembrokeshire Herald has
had a lucky break.
Maria Carroll wasn’t alone on Thursday night. The Beast of Bolsover, Dennis Skinner, was
finally told that his forty-year long end of the pier show was being shut down. Labour were
turfed out of Sedgefield; once Tony Blair’s rock-solid stronghold. Redcar, Grimsby Fishdocks,
Satanic Mills East, and a host of other seats which have been Labour since the dawn of time
all voted with some enthusiasm for Boris and Brexit.
The strategy of forcing opposition parties to treat a first-past-the-post election as a
referendum on a subject about which they didn’t agree worked an absolute treat for the
Tories. Even so, a competently led Labour Party with a clearly defined position on Brexit
could have won. In one credible poll, 43% of Labour voters who switched sides said it was
leadership, not Brexit, that was their main concern.
For the time being, Corbyn remains at the helm of his stricken party, anxious to ensure that
whoever succeeds him is chosen on his terms and from his cult. Any Tory with £3 in his
pocket would do well to sign up to Labour now, for the unmissable opportunity of helping to
elect Richard Burgon or Rebecca Long-Bailey as the Lenin-capped loon’s successor.
Entertaining as it may be to watch the Labour Party disintegrate, the Tories can allow
themselves only a short gloat. Reality will start to bite soon, when they get stuck into what
may not be the entirely effortless task of Getting Brexit Done.

News

Senedd debates UK Government’s ‘disastrous’ first six months

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THE CONSERVATIVES criticised the UK Government’s record six months on from the general election, accusing Labour of doing “not a dickie bird” to stand up for Wales.

Darren Millar, leader of the Tories in the Senedd, said people were told Labour governments at both ends of the M4 would be great for Wales in the run up to July’s election.

But he warned: “What we’ve actually ended up with is a double whammy: broken promises and failing policies … alongside a passive, silent Labour Welsh Government unwilling to offer a squeak of criticism or lift a finger to defend the interests of the people of Wales.”

Leading a Tory debate, he said the new UK Government has hit farmers with inheritance tax, taken winter fuel allowance from pensioners and hiked national insurance for businesses. 

Mr Millar told the Senedd that Welsh railways remain underfunded as he accused Labour of settling for “scraps” despite previously calling for billions of pounds from HS2.

Peter Fox, the Tory shadow rural affairs secretary, warned farmers have to deal with Labour governments “who either do not care or do not understand the needs of rural communities”. 

Mr Fox, a farmer and former council leader who represented Monmouth since 2021, criticised changes to agricultural property relief by the UK Government.

“It’s not a loophole,” he said. “It’s a carefully designed policy … to protect Britain’s family farms from being broken up.”

His colleague Natasha Asghar, who represents South Wales East, described a -45% approval rating for Keir Starmer’s government as “a tad generous”.

She said: “If this is just what the first six months of Sir Keir’s premiership look like, I sincerely dread to imagine what the next six months have in store for all of us.”

Mark Drakeford said the Conservative motion in front of the Senedd concentrated entirely on matters outside the Welsh Parliament’s responsibility.

Following the debate on January 15, Senedd members voted 26-24 against the motion with Labour’s amended version agreed by the same margin.

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News

Welsh Government ‘in the dark’ on £109m tax rise cash

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THE WELSH GOVERNMENT remains in the dark about how much Wales will receive to cover the estimated £109m cost of tax rises in the public sector, a committee heard.

Jayne Bryant said the UK Government has confirmed it will provide funding to public-sector employers towards the increased cost of national insurance contributions from April.

But Wales’ local government secretary said ministers expect to receive additional funding in ‘late spring’ and have not yet received confirmation of how much Wales will receive.

Plaid Cymru’s Siân Gwenllian raised concerns about the impact of tax hikes as the Senedd’s local government committee scrutinised Welsh ministers’ 2025/26 spending plans.

Judith Cole, deputy director of council finance policy, said the Welsh Government estimates the cost of the tax hike to the public sector in Wales at £109m.

Asked how funding will be divided between councils, Ms Cole said the standard funding formula could be used or it may be based on a proportion of spending as in England.

But she stressed that other factors need to be taken into account because, for example, some councils will provide more services by directly employed staff.

Reg Kilpatrick, director of local government, added: “We’re entirely dependent on the negotiations between the cabinet secretary for finance and the UK treasury.”

Ms Gwenllian warned of the impact of tax hikes on the voluntary sector and outsourced services, piling more pressure on council budgets.

She said: “I’ve spoken with three councils … but one said that this will cost an additional £2m in terms of internal salaries but £2.5m in terms of the work that is commissioned.

“Another council said £5.4m on the internal, £2.8m on the work that is outsourced – another said £8m internal and £3m on the outsourced work. There is a lot of work commissioned beyond the local authorities themselves and there is no mention of any support.”

Giving evidence on January 15, Ms Bryant said the UK Government has confirmed it will use the Office for National Statistics definition of a public sector worker.

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News

Candidates for Haverfordwest’s Prendergast Ward council seat

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A SIX-WAY battle to contest a Pembrokeshire seat made vacant following the resignation of local county councillor Andrew Edwards during the Christmas period is to take place next month.

Unaffiliated county councillor for Haverfordwest’s Prendergast Ward Cllr Edwards had previously been a Conservative group member, leaving in 2023 when serious allegations of racist ‘slave’ comments emerged, following a recording where he was alleged to have said every white man should have a black slave.

Following that allegation Mr Edwards, a former magistrate and a school governor, withdrew from the political group and referred himself to the Ombudsman for an independent evaluation.

Cllr Edwards, who became a councillor in the 2022 elections, neither confirmed nor denied the allegation when previously asked by the Local Democracy Reporting Service.

Since then, Cllr Edwards has tendered his resignation over the Christmas 2024 period saying his position is “untenable” due to “family matters”.

Following Mr Edwards’ resignation, notice was given by Chief Executive William Bramble of a casual vacancy for the county councillor position for the ward, and six candidates have thrown their names into the hat to represent the ward, the election to take place on February 11.

The candidates are: Kaleb Jenkins, Liberal Democrats; Mike Mathias, Conservative; James Purchase, Green Party; Scott Thorley, Reform; Alison Tudor, Labour; and Alun Wills, Independent, with further nominations now closed.

Poll Cards will be sent to electors before the election. The polling station will be at Pembrokeshire Archives, not Meadow Park Day Centre as has been previously used in recent years.

Photographic ID will not be required to vote at this election.

Applications to register to vote must reach the Electoral Registration Officer by 12 midnight on January 24; applications to vote by post or alterations to existing arrangements for postal voting, must reach the Electoral Registration Officer by no later than 5pm on January 27.

Applications to vote by proxy must reach Electoral Registration Officer by no later than 5pm on the February 3.

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