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Politics

First Welsh poll of year shows ‘Boris Bounce’

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PROFESSOR Roger Awan Scully writes: As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are the key messages to emerge from the first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020, the first since the general election.
Our new poll, as is typically the case, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, though, and in light of the recent legislation that has given 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, our sample included a representative number from that age group; they are not included in the vote intention estimates for a general election discussed below, but they are included in the estimates for the Assembly.

First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):

Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)

These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.

What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):

Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)

In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.

But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll.

As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)

These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17-year-old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.

For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)

These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:

North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituencies, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)

Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour has always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.
Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?

Community

Haverfordwest antisocial behaviour action a ‘waste of money’

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A PUBLIC protection order, introduced in the centre of Haverfordwest to tackle antisocial behaviour more than two years ago has been a “waste of taxpayers’ money,” with no prosecutions or penalties issued, councillors will hear.

Prior to its backing in mid 2022, a plan to introduce a Public Spaces Protection Order (PSPO) in Haverfordwest town centre had been under discussion for some time, with a public consultation on the matter, as well as previous debates by Pembrokeshire County Council.

The proposals were brought by the town’s five county councillors, initially prompted by anti-social behaviour and drinking issues at the skate park and were developed in partnership with Dyfed-Powys Police.

Claims had previously been made that “gangs of feral children are roaming around town”, with members of the public subject to verbal and physical abuse in Haverfordwest, and a “criminal element” dealing drugs in the town.

The PSPO gives police and PCSOs additional powers for three years to issue a fixed penalty notice of £100 if someone fails to comply with a request to cease consumption of intoxicating substances in a designated area.

At the time, Cllr Jacob Williams said on “civil liberties grounds” he was shocked to see what was being proposed.

“I think this is way over the top and not a proportionate response,” he said.

The PSPO area includes the Withybush retail area, the river alongside Morrisons, Barn Street, Horsefair roundabout, Rifleman Field, skatepark, Fortunes Frolic and out to the train station.

After a lengthy debate the introduction of a PSPO was approved 30 votes for and 21 against, with four abstentions.

The December 12 meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council will receive a submitted question by Independent Group leader Cllr Huw Murphy on the subject.

“At full council on July 14, 2022 a decision was made to implement a Public Space Protection Order (PSPO) within certain areas of Haverfordwest.

“A Partnership Panel held on May 23, 2024, received confirmation that since this PSPO was implemented there have been no prosecutions or fixed penalties issued. There was a cost implication in implementing this PSPO for PCC, money that we can ill afford to spend when ample legislation exists for dealing with antisocial behaviour.

“Therefore, can it be agreed that in future such applications are given greater scrutiny to avoid further waste of taxpayers’ money and what actually reduces antisocial behaviour is increased pro-active policing not more legislation?”

Cllr Murphy’s question will be heard at the December 12 meeting.

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Education

Uncertainty over future of Manorbier school after fire

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A CALL for an update on a south Pembrokeshire school and the timeline for its rebuild more than two years after it was devastated by fire is to be heard later this week.

Manorbier Church in Wales VC School and its adjoining schoolhouse was severely damaged by a fire on October 11, 2022, which broke out in the school roof space.

Pupils and staff were successfully evacuated with no injuries, and a ‘school from school’ was set up in Jameston Village Hall, after a brief period of sanctuary at the nearby Buttyland caravan site.

Pembrokeshire County Council’s insurers have previously said the fire was accidentally started while ‘hot works’ were being carried out by contractors to renew an adjacent flat roof, but, as has previously been stressed, no liability has been accepted to date.

Councillors have previously heard the majority of costs were likely to be met from the council’s insurers, with the caveat of the unknown issue of liability and its effect on a £200,000 insurance excess.

They have also been told that, if liability was found or accepted, the council would “pursue for the full maximum claim of the costs associated with the fire”.

In a question submitted to Pembrokeshire County Council ahead of its full council meeting of December 12, local councillor Cllr Phil Kidney asks: “Manorbier School was subject to a serious fire in October 2022, so serious that the school premises has not been used since.

“At Schools O&S on February 6, 2023, Manorbier school was discussed and Councillor Stoddart queried the possibility of the contractor insurance covering the cost of the rebuild, to which the cabinet member advised, legal discussions were ongoing.

“At full council on October 12, 2023, Councillor Aled Thomas asked: ‘had the Authority been successful in recouping any of the £200,000 insurance excess that PCC had to bear.’

“At the same meeting I asked a question requesting an update on the rebuild of Manorbier School and was informed by the Cabinet Member that it would be included as part of a business case for further consideration by Cabinet.

“Over two years have now lapsed, since the fire and considerable disruption it has caused to the school and community, therefore could full council be provided with a full update with regards to the insurance claim in respect of the school fire and some timelines for the rebuild?”

Cllr Kidney’s question will be heard at the December 12 meeting.

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Community

‘Extreme anxiety, anger and distress over fuel poverty’

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THE OLDER people’s commissioner for Wales called for funding to alleviate the impact of winter fuel payment cuts amid “extreme anxiety, anger and distress” over fuel poverty.

Rhian Bowen-Davies urged the Welsh Government to set up a distinct fund for older people to mitigate against Westminster’s decision to introduce means-testing.

Ms Bowen-Davies, who was appointed for a seven-year term in July, warned the withdrawal of universal winter fuel payments will have a significant impact.

She told the Senedd’s equality committee: “I felt that this decision was the wrong decision… it should have been reversed, I think that opportunity has been missed with the budget.”

She added: “I felt the approach was wrong in terms of it being rushed through and I also felt the timeline was unrealistic for people to apply.”

The new older people’s commissioner, who is a former police officer, welcomed the Unite union taking legal action to try to overturn the cuts.

Giving evidence to an inquiry on fuel poverty, she told the committee an estimated 50,000 households in Wales are eligible for pension credit but do not claim the extra income.

Warning the eligibility criteria for the Welsh Government’s discretionary assistance fund is too narrow, she urged ministers to follow the example of Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Ms Bowen-Davies pointed to a £100 payment for all older people in Northern Ireland this winter, with no application needed and a similar scheme set to follow in Scotland.

She raised concerns about the Welsh Government’s refreshed Warm Homes programme, with a lack of boiler repairs leaving some households without heating and hot water.

She told the committee the boiler replacement scheme has since opened but only until March as she called for a better balance between warm homes and decarbonisation.

Age Cymru highlighted a “huge” 1,144% increase in calls to its advice line about winter fuel payments and a 99% rise for pension credit enquiries from 2023 to 2024.

Ceri Cryer, Age Cymru’s policy adviser, raised similar concerns about the equality impact of an emphasis on heat pumps that are inappropriate for some homes.

She warned the upfront and ongoing costs of heat pumps are beyond many people’s means.

Rebecca Hill, a senior public health specialist at Public Health Wales, expressed concerns about a trend towards older people skipping meals and cutting back on heating.

Dr Hill said: “We know that colder homes are linked to heart and lung conditions, infectious respiratory illnesses such as flu. We also see higher rates of deaths in cold months … and we know a majority of those deaths accrue amongst our oldest population.”

She also pointed to evidence that older people in colder homes have higher blood pressure and cholesterol, problems with sleep and reduced physical performance, leading to falls.

Ms Bowen-Davies warned older people are experiencing “extreme anxiety, anger and distress” as she called for interim targets in the Welsh Government’s fuel poverty plan.

Raising concerns about the disproportionate impact of the cost-of-living crisis, she pointed out that many older people have to budget for soaring bills from a fixed income.

She told the meeting on December 9: “What older people are saying to me is they are having to make really difficult decisions in terms of how much they are eating on a daily basis and the individual rooms that they are heating.”

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