Politics

First Welsh poll of year shows ‘Boris Bounce’

Published

4 years ago

January 30, 2020

PROFESSOR Roger Awan Scully writes: As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are the key messages to emerge from the first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020, the first since the general election.
Our new poll, as is typically the case, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, though, and in light of the recent legislation that has given 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, our sample included a representative number from that age group; they are not included in the vote intention estimates for a general election discussed below, but they are included in the estimates for the Assembly.

First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):

Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)

These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.

What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):

Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)

In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.

But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll.

As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)

These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17-year-old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.

For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)

These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:

North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituencies, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)

Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour has always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.
Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?

News

Community asked for views on allocation of new St Davids homes

Published

15 hours ago

July 26, 2024

Tom Sinclair

THE FIRST phase of Pembrokeshire County Council’s Glasfryn housing development in St Davids is progressing well with the second phase also underway.

The development being built by GRD Homes Ltd, began in November 2023, with a first phase completion date of Winter 2024 looking hopeful, ahead of the scheduled plans.

The first phase consists of seven properties, including a mixture of one and two bedroom bungalows

As completion draws closer the properties will be advertised via Pembrokeshire Choice Homes.

Ahead of this, the Council’s housing team will be holding community engagement on the 13th August 2024 at the Ty’r Pererin Centres, Quickwell Hill, St Davids, SA62 6PD, 5pm-7pm.

This will be a chance for officers to liaise with the local community about the allocation process for these properties.

Glasfryn’s second phase is well underway, with the initial groundwork already completed. This phase includes a further 11 two bedroom bungalows, with a completion date in late 2025.

These bungalows will meet the latest Welsh Government’s Development Quality Requirement, and will be energy efficient, built to EPC A specification and include solar panels to help tenants with running costs.

The Glasfryn development is funded in partnership with Welsh Government.

Cabinet Member for Housing Cllr Michelle Bateman said: “We are really keen to work with the community on a local lettings policy for these new properties, as we have done for our developments in other parts of the County.”

If you have any queries please email the Customer Liaison Team on [email protected], phone them on 01437 764551, or visit Housing’s Facebook page.

Business

Legal call to stop £6m expansion of holiday park still ongoing

Published

1 day ago

July 25, 2024

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

A LEGAL request to overturn a Pembrokeshire County Council-granted approval for a £6m expansion of a south Pembrokeshire holiday park is still ongoing despite a previous announcement it had been turned down, county planners heard.

Back in February, Pembrokeshire planners were informed a legal challenge to a November 2023-granted application for works at Heritage Park, Pleasant Valley/Stepaside had been launched.

The holiday park scheme had previously been backed twice by county planners after a ‘minded to approve’ cooling-off period was invoked as it was against repeated officer recommendations to refuse.

The controversial scheme by Heritage Leisure Development (Wales) Ltd includes the installation of 48 bases for holiday lodges, a spa facility at a former pub, holiday apartments, a café and cycle hire, equestrian stables, a manège and associated office, and associated works.

It is said the scheme, next to the historic remains of the 19th century Stepaside ironworks and colliery, will create 44 jobs.

Officer grounds for refusal, based on the Local Development Plan, included the site being outside a settlement area.

Along with 245 objections to the current scheme, Stepaside & Pleasant Valley Residents’ Group (SPVRG Ltd) – formed to object to an earlier 2019 application which was later withdrawn – also raised a 38-page objection, with a long list of concerns.

A failed legal challenge to try and overturn a council decision to approve three separate planning applications at Heritage Park was launched in 2021 by SPVRG Ltd, which failed in early 2022; the council awarded costs of £10,000 despite external legal fees paid totalled £34,000 plus VAT.

At the June meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council’s planning committee members were told the recent judicial review call by SPVRG Ltd had been refused by the high court, the grounds put forward “not considered to be reasonably arguable”.

Committee chair Cllr Simon Hancock said a council request for SPVRG Ltd to pay costs incurred by the county council in defending the claim had now been submitted.

Following that, at the July planning meeting, in his chair’s announcement, Dr Hancock gave a clarification on the position.

“I can advise that whilst the application for judicial review was refused by the High Court Judge on May 31, 2024, the appellants have challenged this decision.

“This matter is listed for a renewal hearing, and accordingly the legal challenge is still in progress; I’m hoping that’s a clarification from the announcements I made back in June.”

Responding to the clarification, Trish Cormack of SPVRG Ltd pointed out it was not “an appeal,” adding: “Firstly, we are ‘requesting the decision to be reconsidered at a hearing,’ which is a bit less dramatic than ‘challenging the decision’.

“Secondly, the claim remains open for seven days after the decision on the papers in expectance of you requesting the hearing, and the form 86B comes attached to the decision with the case number already filled in for you. This is just part of the process for a judicial review. If the Judge really thought there were no merits to the case, he was free to issue a ‘without merits refusal’.

“That would have ended the claim there and then. The only way to resurrect it would have been to take it to the appeal court. But he didn’t.

“Thirdly, the announcement makes it sound like our ‘challenge’ had happened after their previous announcement, whereas in fact we only had seven days from May 31 in which to make the request, so they knew the moment we did (June 7) because we had to simultaneously email it to the court, PCC and the developer’s agent. So, they knew full well that there would be a renewal hearing.”

Farming

Farm building scheme near Lawrenny given go-ahead by planners

Published

1 day ago

July 25, 2024

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

AN APPLICATION for a storage building at a south Pembrokeshire farm, made by a family member of an officer on Pembrokeshire County Council’s planning service, has been given the go-ahead by the authority’s planning committee.

In an application recommended for approval at the July 23 meeting of the authority’s planning committee, Laura Elliot sought permission for the erection of an agricultural storage building at Tedion Farm, a dairy farm near Lawrenny.

The application had been brought to committee, rather than being delegated to planning officers, due to the family connection.

The farm, near to the Pembrokeshire coast National Park border, comprises 270 milking cows and dairy heifer replacements kept on the farm comprising land over 138 hectares. The farm is mainly down to grass and the cows are paddock grazed in order to utilise grass efficiency.

No objections had been received from local community council Martletwy.

A report for members said: “The application seeks consent for the erection of agricultural storage building. The erection of an agricultural building will be used to store stay, hay and farm machinery.

“The building would be located within the existing farm complex, to the north-east of the site, adjacent to the main farm dwelling. The building will measure 18 metres in length by 13.6 metres in width, with a pitched roof height of 5.71 metres.”

Approval was moved by Cllr Alistair Cameron, seconded by Cllr Brian Hall.