Politics

Universal Income plans depend on Westminster

Published

4 years ago

May 21, 2021

MARK DRAKEFORD’s announcement that the Welsh Government plans to trial Universal Basic Income in a few locations in Wales captured headlines in online media.

The First Minister was variously said to have ‘hinted’ at a trial or announced a trial would take place.

However, nobody should have been surprised by the First Minister’s announcement.

Not only was the policy contained in Labour’s Manifesto for May 6’s election – a bit more than ’a hint’ – but also the principle of holding a trial in Wales was enthusiastically passed by the last Welsh Parliament in September last year. It was a policy in Plaid Cymru’s election manifesto and Labour’s; so, whether Labour went it alone in Government or was in partnership with Plaid Cymru, a trial was on the cards.

WG KNOWS WESTMINSTER HAS THE FINAL WORD

However, whether the Welsh Government can carry out a trial is beyond its immediate control.

Headlines that said the Welsh Government WILL carry out even limited Universal Basic Income trials are also jumping the gun.

When the Senedd debated a motion brought forward by Jack Sargeant MS on September 30, 2020, here is what the Finance Minister Rebecca Evans had to say about it: “The Welsh Government would be open to such a trial taking place in Wales, but we have to be realistic that such a trial would not be possible without the active cooperation of the UK Government, and this is because of the interaction of universal basic income with the tax and benefit system.

“If such a trial were offered, we would also require that conditions were met to ensure that the Welsh Government and this Senedd were able to play a significant role in the design, governance and accountability of any scheme.

“Were the Welsh Government to make payments to individuals without the cooperation of the UK Government, this could simply result in them being ineligible for existing benefits or paying more in tax.

“Aside from the fact that this would not then be a proper test of the effect of an unconditional payment, it would result in the transfer of resources from the Welsh Government to the UK Government.

“And, sadly, our recent experience of the UK Government’s approach to the taxation of our payments to social care workers doesn’t suggest that we should expect their active cooperation.”

In short, the Welsh Government needs Westminster’s ‘active cooperation’ to make a trial possible.

Without Westminster’s cooperation, those who get the Universal Basic Income could (are almost certain to) lose all of their entitlements to other benefits, tax credits, and other means-tested benefits. They could also have to pay tax on it.

WHAT IS UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME?

Universal Basic Income is not a new idea. Its long history stretches back to antiquity and has been a feature of both romantic and progressive political theory for centuries.

At its simplest, Universal Basic Income does away with a raft of welfare benefits. It substitutes them with a single payment of a fixed amount.

Schemes that guarantee a basic income, short of enough to live on, exist in a few US states and a handful of national economies. However, those are more of an income floor for those who are otherwise dependent on welfare benefits. They are not an actual Universal Basic Income.

A national trial in Finland ended after two years with no definitive finding of better outcomes for those who received UBI over those who did not.

The Covid pandemic increased interest in the idea of UBI in continental Europe. At the same time, the US used a series of relatively modest income replacement initiatives to stop people’s descent into poverty (or into deeper poverty).

The UK’s furlough scheme was – essentially – a basic income guarantee but not genuinely universal in nature.

A major multi-national academic study published in 2017 found that UBI probably improved some health outcomes and increased the likelihood of children attending school.

However, the same report also concluded the evidence for positive outcomes from UBI-type schemes was ‘very uncertain’.

THE COST TO WALES

The main deterrent to a truly Universal Basic Income is cost.

• If a full universal basic income were paid in Wales to all working-age adults and set at the level of the official living wage, the cost would be around £35 billion a year.

• If set at the level of the real living wage, the cost would be around £40 billion.

• For illustration, those figures are around twice the size of the Welsh Government’s budget. As a further comparison, income tax in Wales raises in total just over £5 billion.

• Of course, the costs could be much reduced if universal basic income were paid at a lower rate. However, payment at a lower rate would reduce its attractiveness.

Those last four points are not our own words. They are the Welsh Government’s position as set out in 2020 by its own Finance Minister.

Nothing has changed those figures since September 30, 2020.

They demonstrate the prohibitive and unsupportable cost of UBI to Wales without massive and systemic change across the whole UK.

SCOTCH MIST

As an illustrative example of the timescales and complexity of introducing even a pilot scheme, we only need to look at Scotland.

In September 2017, the Scottish Government announced it would support local authority areas to explore a Citizen’s Basic Income Scheme by establishing a fund to help regions to develop their proposals further and establish appropriate testing.

The funding offered was £250,000 over the two financial years 2018/19 and 2019/20.

Four local authority areas: Fife Council, City of Edinburgh Council, Glasgow City Council and North Ayrshire Council, worked together to research and explore the feasibility of local pilots of Basic Income in Scotland.

Notlaunch a basic income. Explore its feasibility.

Over three and a half years since the Scottish Government’s announcement, there is still no UBI trial in Scotland.

Putting such a scheme in place depends, yet again, on Westminster’s cooperation.

A report on the progress of the feasibility study notes’ any pilot [must] have the necessary support to influence the future of national policy and the role of Department of Work and Pensions (DWP), HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), HM Treasury and the NHS will be vital in the design and implementation of a Basic Income pilot.’

Three years to design and complete a feasibility study into a limited trial in four local authority areas in Scotland combined with the need to wait for Westminster approval does not suggest a quick fix.

And if it’s not a rapid process in Scotland, it will scarcely be quicker in Wales.

News

Fewer road casualties recorded in first year of Wales’ 20mph speed limit

Published

10 hours ago

January 30, 2025

Tom Sinclair

THE FIRST year of Wales’ controversial 20mph speed limit saw around 100 fewer people killed or seriously injured on roads previously subject to 30mph restrictions, according to government figures.

New data on road casualties was cautiously welcomed by the Welsh Government, while former transport minister Lee Waters, who led the policy, described it as “the most successful road safety intervention in modern times.”

Statistics indicate that road casualties on 20mph and 30mph roads fell by 26% compared to the previous year, with ten fewer fatalities recorded. The period from July to September 2024 saw the lowest number of casualties on these roads since records began in 1979.

Policy controversy and review

The default speed limit on most urban roads was lowered from 30mph to 20mph on 17 September 2023, with certain exemptions in place. Introduced under former First Minister Mark Drakeford, the policy has been one of the most divisive initiatives since Welsh devolution, with nearly half a million people signing a petition demanding its repeal.

Public backlash prompted a review, and councils are now considering whether some roads should revert to 30mph. The Welsh Government has also commissioned a five-year study assessing the economic costs and benefits of the scheme, with findings expected in 2029.

Cautious optimism over casualty reduction

Government officials have urged caution in directly linking casualty reductions to the 20mph limit, noting that road collisions have been steadily declining over the past decade. The Welsh Government’s chief statistician has stated that at least three years of data are needed for a meaningful analysis of the policy’s long-term impact.

Figures released on Wednesday show that between July and September 2024, 410 road casualties were recorded on 20mph and 30mph roads. These included three fatalities, 90 serious injuries, and 317 minor injuries—a 35% reduction compared to the same period in 2023 and the lowest figures on record.

Over the full 12 months from October 2023 to September 2024, road casualties on these roads were 28% lower than the previous year.

Political reaction

Current Transport Secretary Ken Skates said the trend was “encouraging” and reiterated that the full effects of the policy would take time to assess.

“We know there is a way to go, and we’ve always said it will take a number of years to see the full impact of the policy,” he said. “But to see the figures for this quarter at their lowest level is positive.”

Former minister Lee Waters, now a Labour backbencher, told Herald.Wales: “We can now say with confidence that in its first year, the speed limit reduction represents the most successful road safety intervention in modern times.”

However, the policy has divided opinion both within the Labour Party and among the wider public. First Minister Eluned Morgan has acknowledged that there were issues with its implementation.

The Welsh Conservatives remain critical of the rollout. Shadow Transport Secretary Peter Fox said: “While we welcome any decrease in road casualties, these figures don’t tell the whole story. Our concern remains the way the 20mph speed limit has been implemented.

“The Welsh Labour Government’s default approach has created confusion and frustration for drivers. Their current review must address these implementation issues and ensure a more sensible and effective approach.”

News

Boundary Commission publishes final recommendations for Pembrokeshire

Published

2 days ago

January 29, 2025

Tom Sinclair

THE DEMOCRACY and Boundary Commission Cymru has published its Final Recommendations for the future community arrangements for Pembrokeshire.

The recommendations follow two periods of public engagement, which saw many representations made on Pembrokeshire’s community arrangements.

These include the number of community and town councils, their boundaries, and the number of councillors within each community.

The overriding aim of the review was to ensure effective and convenient local government.

Part of this is to ensure that representation on town and community councils is, as far as is practicable, similar across all councils in Pembrokeshire.

The Final Recommendations Report contains all of the Commission’s recommendations for Pembrokeshire. Where it has made changes to the existing arrangements a description of the change, the representations received, the reasons for change and a map of the recommendations are contained in the report.

The Final Recommendations Report has been submitted to Welsh Government Ministers, and it is now for Welsh Government to decide how to proceed. Usually they will make an Order.

Any changes included in the Order will come into effect at the next Local Government elections in 2027.

County Councillor Neil Prior, Cabinet Member for Communities, Corporate Improvement, and the Well-being of Future Generations said:

“We would like to thank the Commission for the thorough and balanced work undertaken throughout the review. We would also like to thank the organisations and individuals who took the time to make representations during both periods of consultation.

“As the Welsh Government take the next steps, changes will be implemented in 2027 for the next round of local elections.”

The Pembrokeshire Community Review’s final recommendations propose specific changes to community boundaries and electoral arrangements to better reflect local identities and improve governance. Key proposed changes include:

Amalgamation of Communities: The communities of Ambleston and Spittal are recommended to merge into a single community named “Spittal,” comprising two wards: Ambleston and Spittal.
Boundary Adjustments: Several communities, including Clydau, Crymych, Eglwyswrw, and Boncath, are proposed to have boundary modifications to better align with local identities and improve electoral parity.
Community Ward Changes: In the community of Fishguard and Goodwick, it’s recommended to replace the existing Fishguard North East and Fishguard North West wards with a single “Fishguard” ward, and to rename the Goodwick ward to “Goodwick and Harbour.”
Councillor Representation: Adjustments in the number of councillors are proposed for various communities to ensure fair representation. For instance, the new Spittal community would have a total of 12 councillors, with 5 representing the Ambleston ward and 7 representing the Spittal ward.

These recommendations aim to ensure effective and convenient local governance, reflecting the evolving needs and identities of Pembrokeshire’s communities.

The Final Recommendations can be found on the Commission’s website: https://www.dbcc.gov.wales/reviews/01-25/pembrokeshire-community-review-final-recommendations

News

Kurtz challenges Welsh Government on skilled jobs

Published

2 days ago

January 29, 2025

Tom Sinclair

SAMUEL KURTZ, Member of the Senedd for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, has pressed First Minister Eluned Morgan on how the Welsh Government plans to meet the skilled employment demands of emerging industries and technologies.

Speaking in the Senedd, Kurtz emphasised Pembrokeshire’s strong industrial heritage and the continued importance of the hydrocarbon sector, including Valero oil refinery and RWE power station. He highlighted new opportunities arising from the Celtic Freeport and potential investment in Floating Off-Shore Wind, which could bring renewed prosperity to the region.

Following the plenary session, Kurtz said: “Pembrokeshire is home to a diverse mix of established and emerging industries, and it is vital that our workforce has the flexibility to transition into the jobs of the future.

“Businesses understand their needs better than anyone, so the Welsh Government must engage directly with the industries that will be creating these opportunities.

“It is unacceptable that the Welsh Labour Government has yet to present a clear plan to support workers in traditional industries should they wish to reskill. Their slow response is damaging investment, harming businesses, and failing those whose future careers depend on decisive action.”