News

Census shows Wales’ second homes ‘problem’ is not straightforward

Published

3 years ago

January 14, 2023

Jon Coles

RESULTS from the 2021 Census show Wales’s “second homes problem” is not as straightforward as activists believe.

In key tourism areas, many second homes are owned by those with home addresses in the same county or within Wales.

That undermines several assumptions underpinning the Welsh Government’s and nationalists’ rationale for targeting second homeowners with increased levels of Council Tax. It also suggests that their Welsh owners use properties registered as second homes as undeclared holiday-letting units.

Much of the heat in the second homes debate arises from fears that “incomers” (code for English residents) exploit low Welsh property prices to enrich themselves and price locals out of property markets. There are undoubtedly areas of Wales where that is the case – particularly in places like Abersoch in North Wales or, in Pembrokeshire, along the St David’s Peninsula and Tenby.

However, the census statistics show that 7.5% of homeowners in Gwynedd – where the campaign against second homes is hottest – own second homes. Not all of those second homes are necessarily in Gwynedd or Wales. However, home ownership patterns suggest that a significant proportion of those declaring a second home own them within a short distance from their primary residences.

The number of homeowners who declared second homes varies between Welsh counties in a semi-predictable pattern.

Census data produced by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) shows the following:

Carmarthenshire recorded a population exceeding 180,000. Around 6,100 declared a second home, 760 outside England and Wales.

Of around 73,000 individuals in Ceredigion, just under 6,500 declared they owned a second home, with 815 homes outside England and Wales.

In Pembrokeshire, the Census recorded a population of just under 119,000. Over 4,200 reported second home ownership, of which 745 are outside England and Wales.

Gwynedd showed that 7,800 declared a second ownership out of a population of 108,000. Over 1,100 of those second homes are outside England and Wales.

Converting those figures into percentages and ignoring those homes outside the UK shows that Ceredigion is a huge outlier in second home ownership. 7.8% of its population own second homes in England or Wales. The corresponding figure for Pembrokeshire is 3%, for Carmarthenshire, it’s 3%, and for Gwynedd, it’s a fraction above 6%.

Cardiff is the only Welsh Council area that exceeds Ceredigion for second home ownership in England and Wales, where 8% of the permanent population own such properties.

Comparing that data with Council Tax records shows the following:

Carmarthenshire reports 1,100 second homes, although this is likely an underestimate.

Ceredigion records 2,120 second homes or holiday lets.

Pembrokeshire records 3,800 second homes or holiday lets that are charged a premium and a further 422 which are not.

In Gwynedd, the figure is 3,750 second homes whose owners pay a premium and an additional 975 second homes not charged a premium.

The Isle of Anglesey has the largest percentage of second homes as a proportion of housing stock.

Comparing second home ownership rates and Council Tax data suggests a strong correlation between the number of people who own second homes and those who live within the local authorities covered above. In other words, those affected most by a second-home premium are likelier to live in Wales than come from outside its borders.

In Gwynedd and Pembrokeshire, the data suggests property flipping to avoid Council Tax is not solely the preserve of greedy incomers capitalising on lower property prices. The same data suggests that new legislation trying to register properties in the right category faces a major obstacle separating second homes owned by residents from those held by predatory speculators.

The Welsh Government places the onus for overseeing the administration of Council Tax premiums and the correct registration of holiday lets onto Welsh councils. How local authorities can fund those functions, let alone carry them out, without significant extra resources is open to question.

News

Parties make final push as Wales prepares to vote in historic Senedd election

Published

3 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Campaign leaders criss-cross country in last-minute battle for crucial votes

WALES heads to the polls tomorrow (Thursday, May 7) after a frenetic final day of campaigning that saw party leaders, candidates and activists make one last push to win over undecided voters in what is being described as the most unpredictable Senedd election in modern Welsh history.

With polling stations due to open at 7:00am, parties spent Wednesday targeting key battleground constituencies across the country, including the new Ceredigion Penfro seat, amid growing expectations of a fragmented Senedd and a dramatic shake-up in Welsh politics.

The election is the first to be held under Wales’ new expanded Senedd system, with 96 Members of the Senedd being elected across 16 large constituencies using a proportional closed-list voting system.

Reform UK appeared to finish the campaign with significant momentum following a major rally on Tuesday attended by party leader Nigel Farage. The event drew large crowds and considerable online attention as Reform attempted to convert strong polling figures into seats in Cardiff Bay for the first time.

Farage used the rally to attack both Labour and Plaid Cymru, while positioning Reform as the party of “change” for disillusioned voters. Reform campaigners have focused heavily on immigration, cost of living pressures and opposition to what they describe as “wasteful government spending.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth spent the final day presenting his party as the main alternative to both Labour and Reform UK, insisting Plaid could “build a fairer Wales” while warning against what he described as “divisive politics.”

Labour figures, including First Minister Eluned Morgan and deputy leader Huw Irranca-Davies, urged voters not to “take risks” with public services, arguing only Welsh Labour could protect the NHS and local councils during a period of economic uncertainty.

Labour activists were heavily focused on turnout operations in traditional strongholds, amid polling suggesting the party could lose ground after decades as the dominant force in Welsh politics.

The Conservatives attempted to rally core voters with warnings about both Labour and Reform, while also focusing on farming, the rural economy and healthcare waiting lists.

In west Wales, Conservative candidates Paul Davies and Sam Kurtz spent the day meeting voters and carrying out final campaign visits across Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion, arguing their experience and local knowledge would be important under the new electoral system.

The Liberal Democrats and Green Party also maintained visible campaigns in several areas, hoping tactical voting and the proportional voting system could help them secure representation.

Across Wales, campaign teams handed out leaflets outside transport hubs, supermarkets and town centres, while social media campaigning intensified throughout the day.

Political analysts believe turnout could prove decisive, particularly because the new voting system means relatively small shifts in support could determine the allocation of the fifth and sixth seats in many constituencies.

The campaign has been dominated by debates over the NHS, farming, the economy, transport, tourism and the rising cost of living, alongside concerns about the future direction of Welsh devolution.

Polling stations open across Wales from 7:00am until 10:00pm on Thursday, with counting due to begin on Friday morning.

The Herald will provide live election coverage online throughout polling day and count day, including updates from count centres, candidate interviews and reaction as results emerge from across west Wales and the rest of the country.

News

Plaid Cymru projected to lead Senedd as Labour faces historic collapse

Published

3 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Final poll suggests Welsh politics could be on the brink of a major realignment

PLAID CYMRU is on course to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to the final YouGov MRP projection for ITV Cymru Wales before polling day.

The model suggests Labour’s century-long dominance of Welsh elections could be coming to an end, with Plaid projected to win 43 seats in the newly expanded 96-member Senedd.

Reform UK is forecast to finish second on 34 seats, while Labour is projected to fall to just 12.

The poll, based on responses from more than 4,600 adults between April 25 and May 4, puts Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29%. Labour is on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

Labour facing major losses

The projection points to a dramatic collapse in Labour support across Wales.

YouGov’s central estimate would represent a notional loss of 32 seats for Labour compared with the 2021 result under the new electoral system.

It would also be Labour’s worst result at any major Welsh election since 1906.

The model suggests Labour may fail to top the poll in any of the 16 new Senedd constituencies, and could return no members at all in four of them.

In west Wales, Labour’s support is projected to have fallen into single figures in some areas.

First Minister Eluned Morgan, who leads Labour’s list in Ceredigion Penfro, could also be at risk if the projection proves accurate.

Reform surge

Reform UK is projected to make major gains, rising from just 1% of the vote in 2021 to 29% in the final pre-election model.

The party’s support appears to be spread widely across Wales, though it is weaker in Cardiff and strongest in parts of the south Wales valleys.

One of the most striking projections is in Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr, which includes the Merthyr Tydfil area where Keir Hardie was elected as Wales’s first Labour MP in 1900.

There, YouGov’s central estimate puts Reform UK narrowly ahead on 34%, Plaid Cymru on 33%, and Labour on 14%.

Smaller parties

The Conservatives are projected to win just four seats, which would be their weakest devolved election result.

That would leave them one short of the five members needed to form an official political group in the Senedd.

The Greens are forecast to enter the Senedd for the first time, winning two seats in Cardiff.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to win one seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, keeping Jane Dodds in the Senedd.

No majority expected

No party is projected to win the 49 seats needed for an outright majority.

YouGov’s modelling suggests Plaid Cymru would be best placed to lead the next Welsh Government, but would probably need support from another party.

Plaid and Labour together reach a majority in most of the model’s simulations, while a Plaid-Green arrangement does so far less often.

A Reform-Conservative majority appears unlikely in the projection.

Under the new D’Hondt voting system, small movements in vote share could still make a significant difference, particularly for the final seats in each constituency.

Polling stations open tomorrow, Thursday, May 7.