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Politics

Could sin bin-style approach be used to sanction Senedd Members?

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AN ACADEMIC urged the Senedd to introduce a sin bin-style approach to sanctioning misbehaving members.

Jonathan Tonge, a professor at the University of Liverpool, gave evidence to a Senedd inquiry on creating a recall system to allow voters to remove members between elections.

Prof Tonge raised concerns about a suspension of ten sitting days or more being used as one of the criteria for triggering a petition under Westminster’s recall system.

He told the standards committee the “blunt, arbitrary” cutoff creates a cliffedge as he called for a “tapered, sin bin” approach with different sanctions for ten to 30-day suspensions.

Prof Tonge contrasted relatively light sanctions, such as the removal of rights and privileges, below ten days with a “drastic and draconian” penalty above the threshold.

The politics professor warned it is “very, very difficult for the miscreant to ‘survive’”, pointing out that only one MP has remained in post following a recall petition.

Vikki Howells, who chairs the committee, asked whether Senedd members who change their political allegiance after an election should be subject to recall.

From 2016 to 2021, more than 10% of members jumped ship at least once – with Mark Reckless representing Ukip, the Tories, Brexit Party and Abolish the Welsh Assembly.

Prof Tonge said defecting should be grounds for recall, particularly under the closed-list electoral system which will see people voting for parties rather than candidates from 2026.

He told the committee: “If you’ve got a party list system and someone’s stood on a party label then switches, the electorate may struggle to understand the legitimacy of that.

“It is in many ways anti-democratic.”

Asked by Plaid Cymru’s Peredur Owen Griffiths how a Senedd recall system could work, Prof Tonge said a straightforward option would be to co-opt a replacement from party lists.

He said holding by-elections risks punishing parties for the wrongdoing of individuals.

But he warned it would be more of a removal petition than a recall one because MSs would not be able to fight a by-election to clear their name as in Westminster.

Prof Tonge told committee members he is “not a massive fan of co-option”, stressing it is possible to hold by-elections under a proportional representation system.

The expert raised the example of Ireland holding 138 by-elections since 1923, with seats changing hands in almost half of those instances.

He made a case for raising the threshold of 10% of voters signing a petition to 15%, if replacements are co-opted under Wales’ new fully proportional system.

Mark Drakeford suggested a simple retain-or-replace ballot, with a 20% threshold to ensure a reasonable proportion of the electorate takes part.

Prof Tonge was wary about raising the threshold too high, warning it might be a struggle to get 20% of the electorate to turn out.

“I wouldn’t start making the threshold insurmountable,” said the academic.

He pointed out that 18.9% signed a petition which triggered a UK Parliament by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire in 2019 after an MP was convicted of claiming false expenses.

Asked by the former first minister about spending limits, Prof Tonge said a £10,000 cap on expenditure by campaigners seems reasonable.

He told Mr Drakeford spending on recall petitions has been modest because campaigners are rightly not allowed to provide running commentary.

He said: “Parties have found themselves fairly hamstrung in what they can do any way and that might explain why they have, thus far, not spent a lot of money campaigning.”

Prof Tonge added that parties know the 10% threshold will likely be reached.

He explained that the threshold has been comfortably passed ever since the 2018 North Antrim petition, which was exceptional due to the particular politics of Northern Ireland.

Prof Tonge described the ad-hoc number of petition stations, for people to sign in person, as a flaw in Westminster’s model, which can be correlated with turnout.

He cautioned that recall petitions can be costly, with the most expensive costing £500,000, but he said: “It’s a balance – you don’t want to cost cut on democracy.”

Asked by the Conservatives’ Natasha Asghar for examples of best practice, he stressed that no institution has got recall 100% right and there will always be anomalies.

But Prof Tonge told the committee meeting on June 10: “It’s not often that these words might cross my lips but I actually think Westminster has got this broadly right.”

He added: “I do think you’ve got a great opportunity here … to correct the details that Westminster got wrong while retaining the 80%-plus that Westminster got right.”

 

Community

St Davids High Street City Hall community artworks approved

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PLANS for a series of decorative mosaics as part of a community art project at Pembrokeshire’s only city hall have been approved.

In an application to Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, St Davids City Council sought permission for three decorative mosaic community art project panels on St Davids City Hall, High Street, two to the front and one to the rear of the building.

An officer report recommending approval said: “No adverse comments have been received from consultees, and no third-party representations have been received. It is not deemed that the mosaic panels would have an adverse impact upon the character or appearance of the St Davids Conservation Area, nor the street scene in general.”

It goes on to say: “City Hall is located within St Davids Conservation Area – The City, as defined within the Authority’s SPG. This area is mainly late Victorian, with a number of properties dating from the early nineteenth century. This was effectively a second phase of rebuilding in the city.

“The main element of the city is the informality of the built form, reflected in varied boundary treatments and the tendency towards pairs and short groups as opposed to long terraces. The Buildings Conservation Officer has been consulted and notes that the proposal has a negligible impact upon character and appearance of the conservation area.”

It added: “Neither is it deemed that harm would be caused to the special qualities of this part of the National Park. The artworks would contribute to the vibrancy of the city centre and would not appear visually intrusive. Overall, the proposed development is considered to be acceptable, and a recommendation to grant permission – subject to suitably worded conditions – is made.”

It adds: “Whilst City Hall itself is not listed, the cottage (No 18 High Street) is Grade-II-listed. Whilst the Buildings Conservation Officer refers only to the impact upon the conservation area, he has verbally confirmed that the proposed mosaics would not have an adverse impact upon the setting of this listed building.”

The application was conditionally approved by planners.

 

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News

Senedd election 2026: Poll points to historic Welsh Labour slump

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Plaid Cymru projected to emerge as largest party, with Reform UK close behind as Labour risks falling to third place

A MAJOR new opinion poll has sent fresh tremors through Welsh politics, suggesting Welsh Labour could lose its grip on Cardiff Bay for the first time since devolution began in 1999.

The survey, carried out by JL Partners for The Telegraph, projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party in the next Senedd, with Reform UK in second and Labour pushed into third. According to the poll, Plaid is on 28.8% of the vote and projected to win 33 seats, Reform UK is on 24.8% and 29 seats, while Labour trails on 15.9% and 17 seats.

If that result were repeated on polling day, it would mark one of the biggest political upheavals in modern Welsh political history. Labour has led every Welsh administration since the Assembly was created in 1999, but this poll suggests that dominance may now be under serious threat.

The election on May 7 will itself be a landmark one. For the first time, the Senedd will have 96 members rather than 60, with Wales divided into 16 larger constituencies, each electing six Members of the Senedd under the new proportional closed-list system. Voters will cast a single vote for a party or independent candidate, replacing the previous system.

Under the JL Partners projection, Labour is forecast to lead in only one of the new super-constituencies: Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Elsewhere, the battle for first place is expected to be dominated by Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

For west Wales, that will be watched especially closely. Pembrokeshire is now split between the new Preseli Sir Benfro and Ceredigion Penfro constituencies, meaning local voters will be part of two much larger electoral contests than before. Under the reformed system, party performance across a wider area will carry much greater weight.

The projected national vote shares in the poll are:

Plaid Cymru: 28.8%
Reform UK: 24.8%
Labour: 15.9%
Conservatives: 12.3%
Greens: 9.2%
Liberal Democrats: 5.6%
Others: 3.5%

The findings broadly follow the direction of another recent MRP poll, which also placed Plaid Cymru in first place, Reform UK second and Labour third, although with different seat estimates. Taken together, the polling suggests a growing appetite for change among Welsh voters.

Even so, the picture remains fluid. With no party anywhere near the 49 seats needed for a majority in the new 96-member Senedd, any administration formed after May 7 is likely to depend on coalition talks or some form of agreement between parties.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, described the Welsh findings as potentially seismic, warning they would represent a political earthquake if borne out on election day.

For Pembrokeshire voters, the implications are significant. The coming weeks are likely to see fierce debate over farming, rural transport, NHS waiting times, the 20mph policy, energy costs, education and the value-for-money argument surrounding the larger Senedd. Those issues are already shaping campaign messages across west Wales.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has presented his party as ready to lead the next Welsh Government, while Labour under First Minister Eluned Morgan faces what may be its most difficult Senedd campaign in a generation. Reform UK, meanwhile, is seeking to turn growing discontent with the political establishment into a major breakthrough.

Polls are snapshots rather than forecasts, and much can still change before voters go to the ballot box. But with the campaign entering its closing weeks, this latest survey suggests Wales may be heading towards the most dramatic Senedd election since devolution began.

 

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Politics

Welsh Lib Dems promise childcare boost, social care reform in manifesto launch

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Jane Dodds says party will focus on NHS pressures, child poverty and keeping Wales out of independence debate

JANE DODDS launched the Welsh Liberal Democrats’ 2026 Senedd manifesto on Tuesday (Apr 14), unveiling a platform built around childcare, social care, health reform, economic growth and opposition to Welsh independence.

The manifesto, titled A Stronger Wales in a Stronger UK, argues that Wales is at a political crossroads, with the party seeking to present itself as a practical alternative focused on public services and living standards rather than what it describes as constitutional distraction and political anger.

In her launch speech, Dodds said many people across Wales now feel furious, ignored and increasingly doubtful that meaningful change is even possible. She warned that nationalism grows when hope fades, and argued that political debate must return to fixing everyday problems rather than simply finding new people to blame.

A major centrepiece of the manifesto is childcare. The Welsh Lib Dems say they would offer free, high-quality childcare for children from nine months old, providing 30 hours a week for 48 weeks a year. The party says the move would improve children’s life chances, help parents return to work and make a serious impact on child poverty.

Dodds also used the launch to push her long-standing focus on early years support, pointing to the first thousand days of a child’s life as crucial in shaping future outcomes. The manifesto builds on that message with a wider pledge to give every child what it describes as a fair start.

The party is also proposing a School Leavers’ Guarantee aimed at preventing young people from drifting after leaving education. Under the plan, every school leaver would receive an offer within three months of further or higher education, a paid apprenticeship, a job with recognised training, or tailored support into work.

On universities, the Welsh Lib Dems say they would protect what they describe as the most generous student finance system in the UK. They are also promising continued support for Taith and backing for renewed access to Erasmus-style international opportunities, arguing that Welsh students should be able to study, volunteer and work abroad.

Health and social care form another major strand of the manifesto. The party says it would invest in up to 5,000 new or refurbished nursing-care placements to help reduce delayed hospital discharges and relieve pressure on the NHS. It also promises action to improve access to GPs, dentists and cancer treatment, alongside a broader workforce strategy for health and care staff.

Dodds placed particular emphasis on social care during her speech, drawing on her own experience of caring for parents with dementia and Alzheimer’s. She said the care system had been fragmented and overstretched for years, and argued that its failure now reaches far beyond individual families, contributing to hospital bed shortages, ambulance delays and growing pressure on council budgets.

The manifesto includes a proposal to support the creation of a Royal College of Care Workers, aimed at improving professional recognition, career progression and standards within the sector. It also commits to giving families faster support when relatives are discharged from hospital and to strengthening support for unpaid carers.

In one of its more eye-catching pledges, the party says it would consider raising the Welsh rate of income tax by 1p in the pound for an emergency period if funding reform does not come from Westminster and if the money is needed to protect social care. Dodds said the public should be dealt with honestly about the cost of repairing essential services.

Economically, the Welsh Lib Dems are pitching a Welsh Industrial Strategy designed to build on sectors where Wales already has strengths, including high-value manufacturing, creative industries, financial technology and cyber. The party says this would be paired with procurement changes aimed at ensuring more public money supports Welsh firms, jobs and supply chains.

The manifesto also includes support for small and medium-sized businesses, investment in apprenticeships and technical skills, and a £400 million town centres fund intended to help revive struggling high streets. Business rates relief for retail, leisure and hospitality would also be extended under the plans.

On the cost of living, the party says it wants to make homes warmer and cheaper to run through a ten-year programme of insulation and energy-efficiency upgrades. It is also calling for the UK Government to explore zonal electricity pricing, including the possibility of a separate Welsh zone, so that households and businesses in energy-producing parts of Wales could benefit from lower bills.

The manifesto also contains strong environmental pledges, including action on sewage discharges, protections for rivers and seas, and support for renewable energy such as floating offshore wind, hydro and tidal power. In housing, it promises 30,000 social homes and measures to tackle homelessness and poor-quality housing.

On constitutional matters, the party adopts a firm anti-independence line, saying Welsh Government money should not be used to pursue separation from the rest of the UK. At the same time, it calls for further devolution in areas including rail, policing and justice, as well as a stronger Welsh voice within a federal UK.

Dodds used the closing section of her speech to argue that the election would not simply be about which party came first, but about who holds influence in what is expected to be a fragmented Senedd. She said the Welsh Liberal Democrats intended to use any balance-of-power role to push for practical reforms in health, childcare, education and the economy.

With the Senedd election set for Thursday, May 7, the manifesto launch marks the party’s attempt to present itself as a voice for voters who are frustrated with the state of public services but wary of both Welsh nationalism and the rise of Reform UK.

 

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