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Politics

Wins and losses since 1997 in Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire

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POLLS are now open for the July 4 general election, where 15 candidates will fight for your vote in the two new seats of Mid and south Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion Preseli.

As part of constituency changes, bits of north Pembrokeshire – including St Davids and– are joining the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency.

Mid and South Pembrokeshire covers Letterston, Solva and St Davids down to Hundleton and Tenby, stretching eastwards to Amroth, Narberth and Lampeter Velfrey.

Other parts of the north of the county are now in the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency; which extends up past Aberystwyth and also includes Cilgerran, Crymych, St Dogmaels, Fishguard and Llanrhian.

Candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Hanna Andersen (Women’s Equality Party); Alistair Cameron (Welsh Liberal Democrats); Stephen Crabb (Welsh Conservative); Stuart Marchant (Reform UK); James Purchase (Green Party); Vusi Siphika (Independent); Cris Tomos (Plaid Cymru); and Henry Tufnell (Welsh Labour).

Candidates for the new Ceredigion Preseli seat are: Ben Lake for Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat Mark Williams, Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones, Conservative Aled Thomas, Tomos Barlow for the Green Party, Karl Robert Pollard for Reform UK, and Taghrid Al-Mawed for the Workers Party of Britain.

With the boundary changes, which see a cut the number of Welsh MPs from 40 to 32, the former constituencies of Ceredigion, Preseli Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire are now no more.

The two new seats are expecting a Plaid Cymru win for Ceredigion Preseli and a Labour win for Mid and South Pembrokeshire, according to polls.

Listed below are the ebb and flow of winners and losers for the now-defunct seats since 1997.

Ceredigion election history:  1997- Plaid Cymru win Cynog Dafis, Robert ‘Hag’ Harris 2nd for Lab; 2000 by-election Plaid win Simon Thomas, Mark Williams Liberal-Democrates 2nd; 2001 election: Simon Thomas hold, Mark Williams 2nd; 2005 – Mark Williams win, Simon Thomas 2nd; 2010 – Mark Williams hold, Penri James for Plaid 2nd; 2015 Mark Williams hold, Mike Parker for Plaid 2nd; 2017 – narrow Ben Lake win for Plaid by 104 votes,  Mark Williams 2nd; 2019 – Ben Lake hold by increased majority, Amanda Jenner (Cons) 2nd, Mark Williams 3rd.

For the now defunct Preseli Pembrokeshire, parts of which are in the two new seats, election history was…. 1997 Jack Lawrence (Lab), Robert Buckland (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Jackie Lawrence, Stephen Crabb 2nd; 2005 S Crabb, Sue Heyman (Lab) 2nd; 2010 S Crabb, Mari Rees (Lab); 2015 – S Crabb, Paul Miller (Labour) 2nd; 2017 – S Crabb, Philippa Thompson (Lab) 2nd, 314 majority for SC; 2019 – S Crabb, Phillip Thompson 2nd.

The former Carmarthenshire West and South Pembrokeshire seat, parts of which are in the new Mid and south Pembrokeshire seat, election history is: 1997 Nick Ainger (Lab), Owen Williams (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Nick Ainger, Robert Wilson (Cons) 2nd; 2005 Nick Ainger, David Morris (Cons) 2nd; 2010 Simon Hart (Cons), Nick Ainger 2nd; 2015 Simon Hart, Delyth Evans (Lab) 2nd; 2017 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney (Lab) 2nd; 2019 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney 2nd.

In collated results of different polls from Britain Predicts, The Economist, electionmaps, Electoral Calculus, Focaldata, the FT, Ipsos, More in Common, Savanta, Survation, WeThink, and YouGov, Labour is expected to win the Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat for 2024 with vote percentages ranging from 33 per cent to as high as 50 per cent.

Ceredigion Preseli polls are predicting a Plaid Cymru win, ranging from a narrow 27 per cent of votes win to as much as 48 per cent.

 

Crime

UK grooming gang inquiry failing to look at Wales, Senedd told

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AN INDEPENDENT inquiry into grooming gangs across England and Wales has failed to identify a single location in Wales for local investigation, the Senedd has been told.

Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar raised the issue in the Siambr on Wednesday July 8, warning that known victims of child sexual exploitation in Wales are being overlooked.

Mr Millar said independent investigations had already cited Swansea, Rhyl and parts of mid Wales as areas where grooming gangs operate, with victims being trafficked to other parts of the UK. 

Addressing Deputy First Minister Sioned Williams, Mr Millar asked for assurances that she would commit to a standalone, Wales-wide inquiry if the current cross-border investigation continues to bypass Welsh locations.

Ms Williams, who also serves as social justice and equality minister, said the Welsh Government had consulted on the terms of reference to ensure the “unique Welsh context” is captured.

Sioned Williams, Deputy First Minister and minister for social justice and equality
Sioned Williams, Deputy First Minister and minister for social justice and equality

She confirmed that Welsh officials meet monthly with the inquiry team and have been assured that Welsh survivors will be able to contribute fully.

Ms Williams added that her government would take further action if it believes it is required.

The debate followed figures highlighted in the Senedd by Plaid Cymru’s Beca Brown on Wednesday July 2, showing an estimated 25,000 children and young people are sexually abused in Wales every year. 

Labour’s spokesperson for equalities, Shav Taj, called for ring-fenced funding to train teachers to identify sophisticated online AI deepfake networks and “sextortion” rings.

Labour’s spokesperson for employment, equalities, and economic transformation, Shav Taj
Labour’s spokesperson for employment, equalities, and economic transformation, Shav Taj

Ms Taj warned that relying on a central website without specific funding was a “passive strategy” for exhausted school staff.

Ms Williams said the government’s ten-year strategy focuses on prevention, effective protection, and supporting affected families alongside the NSPCC and the Centre of Expertise on Child Sexual Abuse.

 

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Politics

‘Expert group’ set up as government presses ahead with child payment plans

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AN “EXPERT GROUP” has been set up as the Welsh Government looks to pilot its proposed child payment.

Wales’ Deputy First Minister faced questions on Cynnal – a Plaid Cymru manifesto pledge to deliver a £10 payment to to low income households.

Sioned Williams said the group will support the “design, delivery, monitoring, and evaluation of the Cynnal pilot” – which could benefit up to 15,000 children aged six and below.

Answering a question from Plaid Cymru colleague Elyn Stephens, Ms Williams the group brings together “expertise from across the sector” to ensure the scheme is “evidence-led, is robustly evaluated, and is grounded in the realities of families’ lives.”

Drawing on experiences from her own constituency of Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Ms Stephens noted the “real difference” the Cynnal payment could make to families facing the “sharpest end of child poverty”.

However, she said potential recipients need clarity that the support will reach them directly.

She said: “We know there are clear precedents for additional payments being disregarded within the benefits system, including the Scottish child payment and local welfare provision.

“But the Welsh NHS and social care bonus show that without Department for Work and Pensions protection, the value of a government payment can be reduced through the Universal Credit system as it’s then classed as earnings.”

Ms Stephens said the Cynnal payment needs to be “simple to access and protected in full”.

Plaid Cymru MS Elyn Stephens
Plaid Cymru MS Elyn Stephens

Ms Williams confirmed negotiations have begun with the UK Government to look at the links between benefits, taxation, and the Cynnal payment.

She said: “I’ve already started discussing this with Andrew Western MP, the minister for transformation, and further meetings are in the diary.”

Reform’s Gareth Thomas asked Ms Williams how many families in his constituency of Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg are expected to benefit from the payment, and whether his area will be included in the original rollout.

Reform MS Gareth Thomas
Reform MS Gareth Thomas

He also pushed for the Welsh Government to publish local figures so MSs can assess “whether Cynnal is delivering real benefits for families and value for public money”.

In response, Ms Williams said: “The task of the expert group will be to ensure that we plan this payment carefully. It is a pilot programme, so it won’t reach every family in need in Wales, because that’s the nature of a pilot, clearly.”

She continued: “We need to think how we can assess how this child payment can support families in the best way possible, and then build those strong foundations of robust evidence in order to steer future decisions.”

Labour’s Jane Bryant emphasised the importance of working with both the UK Government and local authorities in Wales on the scheme’s rollout.

Casnewydd Islwyn's Labour MS Jayne Bryant
Casnewydd Islwyn’s Labour MS Jayne Bryant

She asked when the child payments will start, and urged the minister to ensure it will not affect families’ eligibility for other financial support.

On the involvement of local authorities, Ms Williams said: “We know we have key partners in this work as regards delivery and interaction with other Welsh benefits.

“So that is, again, what will be completely under the consideration of the expert steering group which will be meeting next week.”

 

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Health

“For too long, women’s health has been treated as an afterthought”

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WALES’ first-ever dedicated women’s health minister has promised a major overhaul of endometriosis and abortion services. 

Addressing Senedd colleagues on July 7, Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni MS Delyth Jewell vowed to tackle the “invisibility” of women’s pain in the healthcare system

Ms Jewell, who was appointed deputy minister for social care, mental health, and women’s health in May, said these areas have lacked “sufficient attention” for too long.

The Plaid Cymru MS said she would champion carers, and said she would work to ensure more carers receive the real living wage and “parity of esteem”,

She said: “Why is it that social care receives less prominence in debate than the NHS? Why shouldn’t care workers hold the same space in our psyche as nurses and doctors?”

Speaking on the importance of mental health care, Ms Jewell highlighted the need for “a fundamental change” in how services are delivered, moving towards “open-access, same-day mental health support”.

The deputy minister revealed she had met with Professor Ann John, national adviser for suicide prevention and self-harm, and pledged to provide a written statement setting out the government’s priorities – with a focus on male suicide.

Ms Jewell also said: “For too long, women’s health has been treated as an afterthought” – and pledged to tackle women’s pain in healthcare.

“How many women have been told, ‘this might hurt’, and have been afraid to speak up and say that they are in pain?” Ms Jewell asked.

“Women’s voices should be heard. Their pain should not simply be endured. I am determined to change this.”

Ms Jewell continued: “We will be refreshing elements of the NHS Wales women’s health plan, with action this year focused on improving endometriosis and abortion services.

“I will want to hear from women directly. We’ll be commissioning work to gather women’s feedback, and we’re also carefully considering the women’s health hub model to improve consistency.”

Ms Jewell confirmed plans to host a ministerial summit on the matter on July 16, and pledged to help those struggling to get appointments, families waiting too long for diagnoses, and women who have not been believed.

She said: “I want to bring hope, to bring change, and, most of all, to be a voice for those who have not been heard. I promise I am listening.”

Reform MS James Evans, shadow health and prevention minister
Reform MS James Evans, shadow health and prevention minister

James Evans, Reform’s shadow minister for health and prevention, congratulated Ms Jewell on her appointment but reminded her that “warm words […] need to be matched by delivery, deadlines and accountability”.

Mr Evans quizzed his opposite number on her plans for a national care service, something Ms Jewell pledged would be created this Senedd term alongside a new national care academy.

But Mr Evans said he has “long opposed” its creation, describing it as an “unnecessary additional level of bureaucracy and a drain on vital public money”.

He added: “A national care academy, fair pay and conditions, better support for unpaid carers – there’s something we all want – and those significant commitments that you’ve made also need to be matched by funding.”

Mr Evans called for a “practical timetable” on this, asking when the national care academy will be online, and how the Welsh Government will ensure the national care service does not become “another layer of bureaucracy”. 

In response, Ms Jewell said: “We want to make sure that what we have for people is greater than the sum of those parts, that actually there is parity of esteem for people in the workforce.

“[…] It’s bizarre, isn’t it, that there’s never been a founding moment for the care service in the way that we’ve had with the NHS. We celebrated the NHS’s birthday a few days ago; when I was talking about the same space in our psyche, we should be celebrating this work.

“Most people will come into contact with the NHS and with other areas of public service throughout the course of our lives.”

Ms Jewell spoke of the importance of increasing the status of the sector and said: “Most people only come into contact with the care service when something has either gone wrong with them or someone else they love.”

Answering Mr Evans’ questions on timescale, Ms Jewell admitted a lot of the work will take the course of the Senedd term but that some elements, such as the academy, she wants to bring forward “far earlier”.

Mr Evans also pressed Ms Jewell on her plans for suicide prevention, and welcomed the focus on male suicide.

He said: “One of the biggest groups that does suffer from suicide is young white men, and young men in general. They are the people who suffer the most and they do need to be supported.”

Mr Evans called for a dedicated men’s health plan, adding that it should not be limited solely to suicide prevention but also other issues such as cardiovascular disease and fathers struggling with newborns.

In response, Ms Jewell said: “I am prepared to engage with you and other members on this as a concept, because, of course, you’re right that certain health issues are either only apparent in men, or have a disproportionate effect on men.

“And there’s lots of work, including what I’ve said about male suicide. The upcoming cancer plan will look at improving rates of diagnosis in areas like prostate cancer. Whether we need to bring that together in one men’s health plan, I am open to the idea – let’s have further conversations.”

Casnewydd Islwyn's Labour MS Jayne Bryant
Casnewydd Islwyn’s Labour MS Jayne Bryant

Labour’s spokesperson for public and preventative health, Jayne Bryant, told the Siambr that “for far too long, women’s voices and experiences in the healthcare system have not been given their due weight.”

Ms Bryant, of Casnewydd Islwyn, drew attention to the work of the previous Labour government to support women’s health – from “free period products, to menopause support, to creating women’s health hubs in every health board.”

She told the Senedd it was “disappointing” to see “no dedicated action” for women’s health in Plaid Cymru’s pledges for the first 100 days in government. 

She called for the deputy minister to share the government’s plans to address endometriosis – a condition which affects one in ten women in Wales.

Ms Bryant told the Siambr that “advances are being made in diagnosis” and Wales must make sure it’s ready to adapt.

She said: “Rapid endometriosis tests have just been given the go-ahead by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, which will help to significantly reduce the time it takes for women to be told whether they have the condition.

“One test, I believe, provides that result in 45 minutes. Currently, getting a diagnosis can take years. So, when does the minister expect women in Wales to be able to access those new tests?”

Ms Jewell paid tribute to the work done by Labour’s Sarah Murphy and Eluned Morgan on women’s health in the last Senedd term.

She said: “It should not be normal for women to have to go for so many appointments before they get the symptom diagnosis that they deserve.

“So, I want to look at this in terms of how it is working in hubs, how it’s working in primary care, all the way through to tertiary services as well. It’s going to be a focus of the women’s health plan.”

Casnewydd Islwyn's Conservative MS Natasha Asghar
Casnewydd Islwyn’s Conservative MS Natasha Asghar

Conservative spokesperson for health and social care, Natasha Asghar, questioned the deputy minister on endometriosis and polyendocrine metabolic ovarian syndrome (PMOS), formerly known as polycystic ovary syndrome.

Ms Asghar told colleagues that NICE published draft guidelines on PMOS last week which recommended “faster diagnosis and an annual review of women and girls aged ten and over to include symptoms and signs of PMOS.”

She called on Ms Jewell to consider annual reviews of the condition alongside the training of doctors and health professionals across Wales to ensure they can spot the signs of PMOS. 

Ms Jewell acknowledged the draft guidance but noted the final recommendations won’t be available until December.

Ms Asghar, of Casnewydd Islwyn, also highlighted the importance of quality education on menstrual health and menopause.

She said: “All too often, women and girls cope with endometriosis and PMOS because they believe that heavy and painful periods are a normal part of their menstrual journey.”

Ms Asghar said she had asked the previous education minister about “ensuring universal menstrual health education within the curriculum”, and asked Ms Jewell how she will ensure “quality menstrual health education” is available Wales-wide.

She also said she has raised “consistent concerns” about the delivery of advice and support for menopause alongside menstrual health.

Ms Asghar noted that Cardiff and Vale University Health Board has launched a menopause hub in Ely, and asked about their Wales-wide rollout.

In response, Ms Jewell said she is “willing and eager” to work cross-party to ensure the message gets out to women and to “empower them to use their voice”.

 

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