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Politics

Tories predicted only to win Montgomeryshire-Glyndŵr seat in Wales

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The Conservatives could be reduced to just one seat in Wales according to latest polling data, with a narrowing of the lead for Plaid Cymru and Labour respectively in Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion’s two new seats.

Recent polls have predicted a safe win for Plaid in Ceredigion Preseli, and a narrower win for Labour in Mid and South Pembrokeshire.

As part of constituency changes, Pembrokeshire’s previous seats of Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, are now no more.

As part of the changes, bits of north Pembrokeshire – including St Davids and– are joining the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency.

Mid and South Pembrokeshire covers Letterston, Solva and St Davids down to Hundleton and Tenby, stretching eastwards to Amroth, Narberth and Lampeter Velfrey

Other parts of the north of the county are now in the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency; which extends up past Aberystwyth and also includes Cilgerran, Crymych, St Dogmaels, Fishguard and Llanrhian.

Earlier this month, global public opinion and data company YouGov recently had predicted the Ceredigion Preseli seat would see a comfortable Plaid Cymru win, at 42.8 percent, with Labour second on 17.6 percent, followed by Conservatives (11.7), Reform (8.5), Liberal Democrats (8.3), and Greens (4.9).

YouGov’s figures for the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat had predicted a Labour win, with 42.6 percent of the vote, followed by Conservatives on 33.4, Reform 9.4, Plaid Cymru 7.4, Liberal Democrats 3.6, and Green 2.8.

The predictions have now been amended to show a narrower margin; a Ceredigion Preseli Plaid win with 36 percent of the votes, followed by Labour, Conservative and Reform tying on 14 percent each, with the Lib-Dems on 13 percent, Green five percent, and others three percent.

For Mid and South Pembrokeshire, the latest figures show a narrower Labour win (33 percent) over the Conservatives (29), followed by Reform (19), Plaid Cymru (8), Lib-Dems (6), Green (4), and others (1).

There’s now a 15-candidate battle for the two seats, eight in Mid and South Pembrokeshire and seven in Ceredigion Preseli.

With a July 4 date set for the general election, the currently declared candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Hanna Andersen (Women’s Equality Party); Alistair Cameron (Welsh Liberal Democrats); Stephen Crabb (Welsh Conservative); Stuart Marchant (Reform UK); James Purchase (Green Party); Vusi Siphika, (Independent); Cris Tomos (Plaid Cymru); and Henry Tufnell (Welsh Labour).

Candidates for the new Ceredigion Preseli seat are: Ben Lake for Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat Mark Williams, Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones, Conservative Aled Thomas, Tomos Barlow for the Green Party, Karl Robert Pollard for Reform UK, and Taghrid Al-Mawed for the Workers Party of Britain.

Wales-wide the latest YouGov poll sees the Conservatives holding on to just Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr in a narrow 28 percent to 25 percent lead over Labour, neighbouring Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe seeing a Liberal Democrat win over the Conservatives.

Plaid Cymru are currently on course to win four seats: Ceredigion Preseli, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Caerfyrddin, and Ynys Môn, the latter a 31 percent Plaid, 27 percent Labour vote.

 

Business

Call to expand nature retreat with more lodges, a sauna and padel courts

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A CALL to extend a Pembrokeshire “boutique nature retreat destination” previously featured in the Sunday Times with further holiday cabins, a mobile sauna and padel courts has been lodged with county planners.

In an application submitted to Pembrokeshire County Council, Paul Cleaver of Wilder Retreats, through agent Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd, seeks permission for two holiday cabins, a mobile sauna and the conversion and extension of an existing building to padel courts and changing rooms to form phase 2 of the existing Wilder Retreats holiday cabins and complex, on land at the former agricultural/ forestry works depot, Solbury Road, Tiers Cross.

Padel is a racquet sport that combines elements of tennis and squash.

A supporting statement said of Wilder Retreats, an ecotourism destination located on 20 acres of rewilded land: “Since opening, the business has established itself as one of Wales’ leading boutique nature retreat destinations — demonstrating how sensitive, high-quality tourism development can work in harmony with landscape, ecology and local economy.

“The business has attracted national press coverage from publications including the Sunday Times and Coast Magazine.”

It said the existing business “was conceived from the outset as an ecotourism model — one that funds and enables genuine environmental restoration through sustainable commercial activity, working towards ecological targets set by Kite Ecology including native woodland planting, wildflower meadow creation and habitat corridor development”.

The Phase 2 developments proposed are: two additional A-frame cabins in addition to the existing six; Wilder Woodland Sauna, a commercial woodland sauna; and Wilder Padel Club, two covered LTA (Lawn Tennis Association) compliant padel courts with associated clubhouse facilities, that re-uses a redundant shed and yard in the client’s ownership.

The two additional A-frame cabins will be operated by Wilder Retreats Ltd as an extension of the existing accommodation business. Wilder Woodland Sauna and Wilder Padel Club will each operate as independent businesses under separate limited companies.

“Together, the three proposals reinforce one another: the cabins bring more guests to the site; the sauna and padel give those guests — and local residents — more reasons to visit and to stay longer,” the statement says, adding: “All three operate independently but collectively strengthen the economic, social and environmental case for this site as a model of sustainable rural tourism.”

The site was previously lawfully occupied by the applicant’s tree works consultancy and land management business until this subsequently relocated a few years ago.

Although the site has since been occupied by a motorcycle business, that business has been given notice to vacate but will trade until early 2027.

The application proposal is supported by a letter from Tennis Wales, the national governing body for Padel, one of the fastest growing sports in the country, which fully supports the principle of creating two padel courts, saying: “Creating more Padel courts, which can be used throughout the year, is critical to sustaining this growth.

“These new facilities will enable more adults and juniors to enjoy, compete and experience the game of Padel in line with Tennis Wales Vision and Mission which is to see ‘Padel opened up’.”

The application will be considered by county planners at a later date.

 

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Crime

UK grooming gang inquiry failing to look at Wales, Senedd told

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AN INDEPENDENT inquiry into grooming gangs across England and Wales has failed to identify a single location in Wales for local investigation, the Senedd has been told.

Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar raised the issue in the Siambr on Wednesday July 8, warning that known victims of child sexual exploitation in Wales are being overlooked.

Mr Millar said independent investigations had already cited Swansea, Rhyl and parts of mid Wales as areas where grooming gangs operate, with victims being trafficked to other parts of the UK. 

Addressing Deputy First Minister Sioned Williams, Mr Millar asked for assurances that she would commit to a standalone, Wales-wide inquiry if the current cross-border investigation continues to bypass Welsh locations.

Ms Williams, who also serves as social justice and equality minister, said the Welsh Government had consulted on the terms of reference to ensure the “unique Welsh context” is captured.

Sioned Williams, Deputy First Minister and minister for social justice and equality
Sioned Williams, Deputy First Minister and minister for social justice and equality

She confirmed that Welsh officials meet monthly with the inquiry team and have been assured that Welsh survivors will be able to contribute fully.

Ms Williams added that her government would take further action if it believes it is required.

The debate followed figures highlighted in the Senedd by Plaid Cymru’s Beca Brown on Wednesday July 2, showing an estimated 25,000 children and young people are sexually abused in Wales every year. 

Labour’s spokesperson for equalities, Shav Taj, called for ring-fenced funding to train teachers to identify sophisticated online AI deepfake networks and “sextortion” rings.

Labour’s spokesperson for employment, equalities, and economic transformation, Shav Taj
Labour’s spokesperson for employment, equalities, and economic transformation, Shav Taj

Ms Taj warned that relying on a central website without specific funding was a “passive strategy” for exhausted school staff.

Ms Williams said the government’s ten-year strategy focuses on prevention, effective protection, and supporting affected families alongside the NSPCC and the Centre of Expertise on Child Sexual Abuse.

 

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Politics

‘Expert group’ set up as government presses ahead with child payment plans

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AN “EXPERT GROUP” has been set up as the Welsh Government looks to pilot its proposed child payment.

Wales’ Deputy First Minister faced questions on Cynnal – a Plaid Cymru manifesto pledge to deliver a £10 payment to to low income households.

Sioned Williams said the group will support the “design, delivery, monitoring, and evaluation of the Cynnal pilot” – which could benefit up to 15,000 children aged six and below.

Answering a question from Plaid Cymru colleague Elyn Stephens, Ms Williams the group brings together “expertise from across the sector” to ensure the scheme is “evidence-led, is robustly evaluated, and is grounded in the realities of families’ lives.”

Drawing on experiences from her own constituency of Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Ms Stephens noted the “real difference” the Cynnal payment could make to families facing the “sharpest end of child poverty”.

However, she said potential recipients need clarity that the support will reach them directly.

She said: “We know there are clear precedents for additional payments being disregarded within the benefits system, including the Scottish child payment and local welfare provision.

“But the Welsh NHS and social care bonus show that without Department for Work and Pensions protection, the value of a government payment can be reduced through the Universal Credit system as it’s then classed as earnings.”

Ms Stephens said the Cynnal payment needs to be “simple to access and protected in full”.

Plaid Cymru MS Elyn Stephens
Plaid Cymru MS Elyn Stephens

Ms Williams confirmed negotiations have begun with the UK Government to look at the links between benefits, taxation, and the Cynnal payment.

She said: “I’ve already started discussing this with Andrew Western MP, the minister for transformation, and further meetings are in the diary.”

Reform’s Gareth Thomas asked Ms Williams how many families in his constituency of Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg are expected to benefit from the payment, and whether his area will be included in the original rollout.

Reform MS Gareth Thomas
Reform MS Gareth Thomas

He also pushed for the Welsh Government to publish local figures so MSs can assess “whether Cynnal is delivering real benefits for families and value for public money”.

In response, Ms Williams said: “The task of the expert group will be to ensure that we plan this payment carefully. It is a pilot programme, so it won’t reach every family in need in Wales, because that’s the nature of a pilot, clearly.”

She continued: “We need to think how we can assess how this child payment can support families in the best way possible, and then build those strong foundations of robust evidence in order to steer future decisions.”

Labour’s Jane Bryant emphasised the importance of working with both the UK Government and local authorities in Wales on the scheme’s rollout.

Casnewydd Islwyn's Labour MS Jayne Bryant
Casnewydd Islwyn’s Labour MS Jayne Bryant

She asked when the child payments will start, and urged the minister to ensure it will not affect families’ eligibility for other financial support.

On the involvement of local authorities, Ms Williams said: “We know we have key partners in this work as regards delivery and interaction with other Welsh benefits.

“So that is, again, what will be completely under the consideration of the expert steering group which will be meeting next week.”

 

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