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UKIP surge in opinion polls

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Neil Hamilton: Thought to be a mid and west regional Assembly candidate

Neil Hamilton: Thought to be a mid and west regional Assembly candidate

IN SPITE of a troubled Assembly election campaign, the failure of the National Executive to ratify any candidates as we move within three months of the elections and the resignation of a UKIP councillor in protest over the parachuting in of prominent UKIP members onto the regional lists, the party has increased their projected vote share to 18% according to a recent poll.

If this was replicated on voting day, it would lead to UKIP gaining nine regional Assembly seats – including two in mid and west Wales.

Support for Labour has slipped to 31%, which is around 10% lower than in the run-up to the 2011 elections, where the party gained 30 seats and formed a minority government.

The party is currently predicted to win 27 seats, of which two are regional, leaving them four seats short of a majority. However, support for both Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives appears to be unchanged, beyond the 1% margin of error, meaning that the parties look likely to win 10 and 12 seats respectively. This would mean that, if these figures were reflected on voting day, it would take a coalition of Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives, and UKIP to gain a working majority.

YouGov shows consistently higher levels of support for UKIP than other polls. At the last election it showed significantly higher shares of the vote for both Labour and UKIP than were actually returned in the election poll. However, surveys suggest that UKIP voters and Plaid Cymru voters are more likely to vote that Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Labour voters.

It is unlikely that Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives would work in a coalition together. Leanne Wood, Adam Price and Helen Mary Jones – all of whom advised against the ‘rainbow coalition’ in 2007, are likely to be elected to the Assembly.

While the Welsh Conservatives have not yet announced their intentions regarding EU membership, leader Andrew RT Davies has said that there need to be an open discussion about the subject. This, allied with remarks he made at the Conservative Party conference last year in which he asked for England to ‘take Mark Reckless back’ would seem to indicate that a Conservative UKIP coalition would be unlikely.

Plaid Cymru are ideologically opposed to UKIP on several key points including EU membership. In addition, the party lost seats following a coalition with Labour. It is hard to see how a coalition with the Conservatives and UKIP would not cost them far more, especially as the party is the only one in Wales to call itself socialist.

A return to the 2007 One Wales coalition between Plaid Cymru and Labour has been predicted by some pundits. However, some campaigners during the 2015 General Election claimed that overt support given to Ed Milliband’s Labour government cost the party dearly on the doorstep. Andrew RT Davies has already begun to make political capital out of this, casting his party as the only alternative to a Welsh Labour-led administration.

It is hard to understand why UKIP has delayed in announcing candidates, when at least two south west Wales branches held local hustings before Christmas. UKIP are highly unlikely to win any constituency seats in the area, and the suspicion remains that, with the probable exception of Neil Hamilton in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, local party members will stand for the constituencies, while the more winnable regional seats will be contested by more high-profile candidates, such as Mr Reckless and UKIP press officer Alexandra Phillips.

The Herald asked UKIP for a statement regarding its candidates over two weeks ago. That request, addressed to Alexandra Philips as UKIP Wales’ Press Officer, was not favoured with either an acknowledgement or response,

 

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First Minister challenged over ‘£9bn cost’ of 20mph speed limit policy

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A REFORM Wales MS launched a sharp attack on the Welsh Government’s default 20mph speed limit policy during an exchange with the First Minister in the Senedd on Tuesday.

South Wales East regional MS Laura Anne Jones criticised the policy, arguing that it has damaged the Welsh economy and ignored public opposition.

Speaking in the chamber, Ms Jones said improvements in vehicle safety had already contributed to a reduction in road casualties across the UK.

“Road casualties have gone down right across the United Kingdom because cars are getting safer. It is a known fact,” she told the Senedd.

She went on to question the economic impact of the Welsh Government’s 20mph policy, claiming official analysis suggests it could cost the Welsh economy around £9 billion.

“It needs to be asked: has this ill thought out policy already cost our country a lot of money? Yes. Will it cost an awful lot to reverse? Yes. But how much has it cost our Welsh economy? By the Government’s own calculations, this has cost £9 billion,” she said.

“So you cannot say it has been a good policy. It has been a disaster from start to finish.”

Ms Jones also referred to the record-breaking Senedd petition calling for the policy to be scrapped, which attracted around 500,000 signatures — the largest petition ever submitted to the Welsh Parliament.

She added that there is broad agreement that 20mph limits should apply in specific locations.

“No one across this Chamber disagrees that 20mph should be the case outside schools and hospitals and where it is appropriate. It is disingenuous to say anything else.

“But this default 20mph policy needs to be reversed.”

Reform Wales has pledged to scrap the default 20mph speed limit if elected at the next Senedd election, scheduled for May 7.

 

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Leaked memo row sparks fresh devolution debate in Wales

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Liberal Democrats claim Welsh Labour failing to deliver after 26 years in power

A LEAKED memo reportedly sent by the Prime Minister to his Cabinet has triggered fresh political debate over the future of devolution in Wales.

The memo, attributed to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is said to outline how the UK Government should interact with the devolved administrations across the United Kingdom, including Wales.

The details of the document have not been fully published, but critics claim it suggests that the UK Government could seek ways of working around devolved governments in certain circumstances.

The comments prompted a response from Jane Dodds, leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, who said the row highlights wider tensions within Labour over how devolution is managed.

Ms Dodds said: “After 26 years of Welsh Labour running Wales and a Labour government now in Westminster, the public is watching Labour argue with itself over devolution instead of getting on with the job.

“Trying to bypass the Senedd from Westminster is the wrong approach. But it’s also clear that Welsh Labour ministers in Cardiff Bay have too often failed to deliver the results people in Wales deserve.”

She added that the Welsh Liberal Democrats believe the problem lies not with the devolved institutions themselves but with how they have been run.

“The Welsh Liberal Democrats will save devolution from Welsh Labour’s record and restore people’s trust in the Welsh Parliament,” she said. “It isn’t the Senedd that’s broken, it’s Welsh Labour’s management of it.”

The Welsh Parliament, commonly known as the Senedd, has held devolved powers over areas such as health, education and transport since it was established following the 1997 referendum on Welsh devolution.

Welsh Labour has been the dominant governing party in Cardiff Bay since the Senedd was created, either governing alone or in cooperation with other parties.

The alleged memo has raised questions about how the UK Government intends to work with devolved administrations, particularly at a time when the same party holds power in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay.

The UK Government has not yet issued detailed comment on the contents of the leaked document.

 

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Tories press First Minister over China-linked arrests and Welsh Govt security checks

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Questions raised in Senedd over vetting procedures and overseas links

THE LEADER of the Welsh Conservatives used First Minister’s Questions in the Senedd on Tuesday (Mar 10) to demand answers from the First Minister following the arrest of three men on suspicion of assisting Chinese intelligence services.

Darren Millar MS said the case raises serious questions about potential national security risks and whether appropriate safeguards are in place within Welsh Government structures.

It has emerged that the three men arrested had previously held political roles connected to the Welsh Labour Party and/or the Welsh Government. All three are also reported to have had links to the energy company Bute Energy.

Mr Millar told the Senedd that the situation required urgent clarification from the First Minister, including when she first became aware of the arrests and whether any review of vetting procedures had been launched.

The issue follows an emergency question tabled by the Conservative leader last week, which he said had not been fully answered.

During Tuesday’s exchange, Mr Millar asked whether the Welsh Government had begun reviewing its security and vetting arrangements for staff working both within government and in its overseas offices.

The Welsh Government operates three overseas offices in China as part of its international trade and investment network.

Mr Millar argued that the existence of these offices meant the public needed reassurance that robust checks were in place.

He told the Senedd: “These arrests are extremely concerning and raise serious questions about whether Welsh Labour and the Welsh Government may be a weak link in our UK national security.

“Today I sought clarity on the extent of the Welsh Government’s exposure, what safeguards were in place, and what steps are now being taken both in Wales and in the Welsh Government’s overseas offices in China to protect our national interest.

“Public confidence depends on transparency and accountability, particularly when matters of foreign influence and national security are involved.”

Mr Millar also criticised what he described as the Welsh Government’s recent engagement with Vietnam, suggesting relationships with overseas governments should be reviewed.

He said: “The Welsh Labour Government has also been cosying up to the Communist regime in Vietnam in recent years.

“We know that social media accounts based in Vietnam are seeking to influence our democracy with fake news and AI generated posts.

“It’s high time that the Welsh Government’s relationships with both China and Vietnam were reviewed to ensure that they are not a back-door for malign influence.”

The Welsh Government has not yet issued a detailed response to the concerns raised during First Minister’s Questions.

 

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