Farming
EU Exit scenario report published
HE CABINET Secretary for Energy, Planning and Rural Affairs has welcomed the publication of an EU Exit scenario report for the food, fisheries, farming, forestry and the environment sectors.
The EU Exit scenario report has been published by the Cabinet Secretary’s Brexit Roundtable Stakeholder Group. The group was set up following the referendum result to provide a forum for engagement and collaboration between the Welsh Government and its key stakeholders across the portfolio in planning for Brexit.
Over a number of months, a sub-group examined a number of different Brexit scenarios to identify the possible impacts on the sectors. In its report, five scenarios were developed, including defaulting to WTO terms, an EU-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and complete access to the single market with new FTAs with third countries.
The report summarises the key findings of the work, which was developed with stakeholders across all of the sectors.
Key findings across the scenarios include:
Opportunities arise for some sectors in some scenarios, but not in all.
Food prices increase to some degree across all scenarios, particularly influenced by import tariffs, non-tariff barriers and higher labour costs.
The potential impacts for Welsh fishing vary from collapse under WTO tariffs to no change if the trading arrangements with the EU remain unchanged.
The importance of investing in ‘added value’ is a theme across all scenarios and with all sectors.
The sheep sector faces severe challenges as it relies on export to balance seasonal production and to achieve carcass balance. The pressures from geographical constraints and workforce availability in abattoirs and processing mean lamb markets are likely to struggle in all scenarios.
The dairy and poultry sectors are most robust because of their focus on UK internal markets and lower reliance on export. Beef remains viable with a buoyant dairy industry to supply calves, with a better carcass balance and a lower dependency on export.
The Welsh environment sector remains a potential growth area in term of eco-tourism through landscapes and seascape. It is rich in natural capital but investment is needed to develop new markets and to develop the skills the sector needs.
Government funding significantly impacts the rate of change but not the eventual outcome. For many of the most severely impacted sectors funding is unlikely to be able to prevent the impacts but it could help to facilitate change.
Without Government transitional support, in scenarios of big change, specific sectors may collapse quickly which will have wider consequences on community health and well-being.
Both farming and fishing businesses in Wales need to improve productivity and efficiency, and consider other income streams to stay viable. This will require improved business skills and investment in infrastructure.
The challenges and opportunities of Brexit will be different for each agricultural, fishing, forestry or food business. Mechanisms to support businesses to make the right decisions need to be put in place.
Lesley Griffiths said: “I welcome the publication of this EU Exit scenario report and would like to thank the stakeholders for all their hard work. My Brexit Roundtable Group is a key forum where we engage and work closely with key stakeholders across my portfolio to support a collective approach to Brexit in Wales.
“Leaving the EU brings a high degree of uncertainty, and poses both risks and opportunities across sectors including food, fisheries, farming, forestry and the environment. However, accurately predicting the impacts of Brexit is incredibly difficult.
“The Group has therefore considered a number of scenarios to explore the impact directly on key sectors and between the sectors to enable us to also consider potential wider impacts on our communities and our environment.
“Whilst today’s report makes for stark reading it will be an important resource for us as a government, as well as the sectors themselves, to inform our collective preparations for a successful future outside the EU.”
Farming
‘Poor decision’ New Creamston housing condition overturned
A “POOR DECISION” agricultural worker-only imposed nearly 40 years ago has been removed from a Pembrokeshire property by county planners.
In an application recommended to be approved at the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County council’s planning committee, Tim and Cathy Arthur sought permission for the removal of an agricultural worker-only condition at New Creamson, Creamston Road, near Haverfordwest.
An officer report for members said the agricultural condition was imposed when the dwelling was built in 1988/89, with a later certificate of lawful development granted this year after it was proven the site had been occupied for more than 10 years on breach of that condition.
An application for a certificate of lawfulness allows an applicant to stay at a development if they can provide proof of occupancy over a prolonged period.
Speaking at the meeting, agent Andrew Vaughan-Harries of Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd told members the original agriculture-only condition was a poor decision by planners back nearly four decades ago.
“When this application was made in 1988-89 we go back to the Preseli District Council – I was still in school – it was only a 50-acre farm, it should never have been approved as it shouldn’t have been viable.
“The current applicants have owned it for the last 20 years; they’ve tried to grow apples but couldn’t make a go of it and then went in to holiday lets. We can’t enforce redundant conditions from bad decisions made years ago.”
Approval was moved by Cllr Brian Hall and unanimously supported by committee members.
Business
Cwm Deri Vineyard Martletwy holiday lets plans deferred
CALLS to convert a former vineyard restaurant in rural Pembrokeshire which had been recommended for refusal has been given a breathing space by planners.
In an application recommended for refusal at the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council’s planning committee, Barry Cadogan sought permission for a farm diversification and expansion of an existing holiday operation through the conversion of the redundant former Cwm Deri vineyard production base and restaurant to three holiday lets at Oaklea, Martletwy.
It was recommended for refusal on the grounds of the open countryside location being contrary to planning policy and there was no evidence submitted that the application would not increase foul flows and that nutrient neutrality in the Pembrokeshire Marine SAC would be achieved within this catchment.
An officer report said that, while the scheme was suggested as a form of farm diversification, no detail had been provided in the form of a business case.
Speaking at the meeting, agent Andrew Vaughan-Harries of Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd, after the committee had enjoyed a seasonal break for mince pies, said of the recommendation for refusal: “I’m a bit grumpy over this one; the client has done everything right, he has talked with the authority and it’s not in retrospect but has had a negative report from your officers.”

He said the former Cwm Deri vineyard had been a very successful business, with a shop and a restaurant catering for ‘100 covers’ before it closed two three years ago when the original owner relocated to Carmarthenshire.
He said Mr Cadogan then bought the site, farming over 36 acres and running a small campsite of 20 spaces, but didn’t wish to run a café or a wine shop; arguing the “beautiful kitchen” and facilities would easily convert to holiday let use.
He said a “common sense approach” showed a septic tank that could cope with a restaurant of “100 covers” could cope with three holiday lets, describing the nitrates issue as “a red herring”.
He suggested a deferral for further information to be provided by the applicant, adding: “This is a big, missed opportunity if we just kick this out today, there’s a building sitting there not creating any jobs.”
On the ‘open countryside’ argument, he said that while many viewed Martletwy as “a little bit in the sticks” there was already permission for the campsite, and the restaurant, and the Bluestone holiday park and the Wild Lakes water park were roughly a mile or so away.
He said converting the former restaurant would “be an asset to bring it over to tourism,” adding: “We don’t all want to stay in Tenby or the Ty Hotel in Milford Haven.”
While Cllr Nick Neuman felt the nutrients issue could be overcome, Cllr Michael Williams warned the application was “clearly outside policy,” recommending it be refused.
A counter-proposal, by Cllr Tony Wilcox, called for a site visit before any decision was made, the application returning to a future committee; members voting seven to three in favour of that.
Farming
Farmers Union of Wales Warns: Labour’s 5G Expansion Risks Rural Blackspots
FUW Joins Landowners in Urgent Call to Pause Controversial Telecoms Reforms
THE FUW (Farmers’ Union of Wales) has warned that rural communities face worsening mobile blackspots and farmers risk losing essential income if the Labour Government expands a telecoms policy blamed for stalling Britain’s 5G rollout.
In a letter to Digital Economy Minister Liz Lloyd, the FUW aligns with landowners, investors, and property experts demanding a halt to Part 2 of the Product Security and Telecommunications Infrastructure (PSTI) Act 2022. Extending the 2017 Electronic Communications Code (ECC) would “entrench failure,” the group argues, sparking more stalled renewals, site losses, and legal battles just as Wales needs swifter rural connectivity.
The 2017 reforms empowered operators to cut mast rents—often by 90%—from hosts like farmers, councils, and NHS trusts. Far from boosting rollout, they’ve ignited over 1,000 tribunal cases since 2017, versus 33 in the prior three decades. Rural goodwill has eroded, with hosts now eyeing exits.
“Every lost mast isolates households, schools, and businesses,” the FUW states. “No public subsidy can fix this systemic damage.”
A survey of 559 hosts (via NFU, CLA, BPF) shows:
- 35% considering full withdrawal.
- 70% of expired lease holders facing operator legal threats.
Landowner Ted Hobbs in New Tredegar shares the pain: “My 1995 Vodafone lease was £3,500 yearly, renewed in 2010 at the same rate. It expired May 2025—now they demand a slash, backed by the Code. This is confiscation, not partnership.”
Labour’s push forward—despite earlier opposition and a critical consultation—ignores these red flags.
FUW President Ian Rickman adds: “Farmers hosted masts in good faith for rural connectivity. Punishing them with rent cuts sabotages Wales. Halt this now, restore trust, and incentivise real progress.”
The coalition urges ministers to reopen dialogue before deepening rural divides. Wales can’t afford more policy missteps.
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