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Farming

EU Exit scenario report published

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Report makes stark reading: Lesley Griffiths

HE CABINET Secretary for Energy, Planning and Rural Affairs has welcomed the publication of an EU Exit scenario report for the food, fisheries, farming, forestry and the environment sectors.

The EU Exit scenario report has been published by the Cabinet Secretary’s Brexit Roundtable Stakeholder Group. The group was set up following the referendum result to provide a forum for engagement and collaboration between the Welsh Government and its key stakeholders across the portfolio in planning for Brexit.

Over a number of months, a sub-group examined a number of different Brexit scenarios to identify the possible impacts on the sectors. In its report, five scenarios were developed, including defaulting to WTO terms, an EU-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and complete access to the single market with new FTAs with third countries.

The report summarises the key findings of the work, which was developed with stakeholders across all of the sectors.

Key findings across the scenarios include:

Opportunities arise for some sectors in some scenarios, but not in all.

Food prices increase to some degree across all scenarios, particularly influenced by import tariffs, non-tariff barriers and higher labour costs.

The potential impacts for Welsh fishing vary from collapse under WTO tariffs to no change if the trading arrangements with the EU remain unchanged.

The importance of investing in ‘added value’ is a theme across all scenarios and with all sectors.

The sheep sector faces severe challenges as it relies on export to balance seasonal production and to achieve carcass balance. The pressures from geographical constraints and workforce availability in abattoirs and processing mean lamb markets are likely to struggle in all scenarios.

The dairy and poultry sectors are most robust because of their focus on UK internal markets and lower reliance on export. Beef remains viable with a buoyant dairy industry to supply calves, with a better carcass balance and a lower dependency on export.

The Welsh environment sector remains a potential growth area in term of eco-tourism through landscapes and seascape. It is rich in natural capital but investment is needed to develop new markets and to develop the skills the sector needs.

Government funding significantly impacts the rate of change but not the eventual outcome. For many of the most severely impacted sectors funding is unlikely to be able to prevent the impacts but it could help to facilitate change.

Without Government transitional support, in scenarios of big change, specific sectors may collapse quickly which will have wider consequences on community health and well-being.

Both farming and fishing businesses in Wales need to improve productivity and efficiency, and consider other income streams to stay viable. This will require improved business skills and investment in infrastructure.

The challenges and opportunities of Brexit will be different for each agricultural, fishing, forestry or food business. Mechanisms to support businesses to make the right decisions need to be put in place.

Lesley Griffiths said: “I welcome the publication of this EU Exit scenario report and would like to thank the stakeholders for all their hard work. My Brexit Roundtable Group is a key forum where we engage and work closely with key stakeholders across my portfolio to support a collective approach to Brexit in Wales.

“Leaving the EU brings a high degree of uncertainty, and poses both risks and opportunities across sectors including food, fisheries, farming, forestry and the environment. However, accurately predicting the impacts of Brexit is incredibly difficult.

“The Group has therefore considered a number of scenarios to explore the impact directly on key sectors and between the sectors to enable us to also consider potential wider impacts on our communities and our environment.

“Whilst today’s report makes for stark reading it will be an important resource for us as a government, as well as the sectors themselves, to inform our collective preparations for a successful future outside the EU.”

Farming

Dairy farmers hit hard as average incomes plunge by up to 62%

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DAIRY FARMERS in Wales have suffered a major financial blow, with incomes falling by 62% in real terms between April 2023 and March 2024, according to recent figures. Average farm business income during this period dropped to just £70,900—a significant decline from previous years.

FALLING MILK PRICES

The primary cause of this downturn has been a sharp reduction in farmgate milk prices. After record highs in 2022, milk prices fell dramatically in early 2023, leaving many farmers struggling to make ends meet. This drop in revenue has had a ripple effect across the sector.

RISING COSTS

At the same time, input costs for feed, fertilizer, and fuel have remained stubbornly high. Although there has been some stabilization in feed prices, the overall cost of production continues to strain farm finances. Many farmers report that rising costs are eroding already slim profit margins.

LABOUR CHALLENGES

Labour shortages have also played a role. The dairy sector, which relies heavily on skilled workers, has faced difficulties in recruiting staff, a problem made worse by post-Brexit immigration rules. As a result, many farms have had to pay higher wages, further cutting into their earnings.

REGULATORY BURDENS

Environmental regulations have added another layer of financial stress. Farmers have been required to invest in costly infrastructure, such as improved slurry storage systems, to meet new standards. While these measures aim to protect the environment, they have placed additional pressure on farmers already grappling with tight budgets.

UNPREDICTABLE WEATHER

Weather volatility has also contributed to the challenges. Unpredictable conditions have impacted forage quality and availability, affecting milk yields and increasing costs for supplementary feed.

CALLS FOR SUPPORT

Industry leaders are calling for greater support to help dairy farmers weather the storm. They are urging the government to provide relief measures and address the ongoing issues of market volatility and regulatory costs.

Farmers’ Union of Wales Deputy President, Dai Miles said: “The latest statistics on Farm Business Incomes in Wales demonstrate the economic reality of attempting to maintain levels of profitability against a backdrop of increasing costs and red tape.

“Dairy farms have seen significant declines due to both an average increase of 10% in overall farm business costs coupled with reductions in income.

“Across the board, however, the proportion of farm businesses in Wales generating a negative income continues to increase to over 20%. At the very least, this demonstrates the need for the future Sustainable Farming Scheme to offer an equal level of economic stability, currently provided through the Basic Payment Scheme, the maintenance of which for 2025 has been welcomed by the industry.”

LOOKING AHEAD

Despite the challenges, some industry analysts remain cautiously optimistic, suggesting that stabilizing milk prices and improved market conditions could provide relief in the coming year. However, without significant intervention, many fear that the sector may continue to struggle.

Dairy farming has long been a cornerstone of the Welsh economy, and the current crisis serves as a stark reminder of the need for robust support for this vital industry.

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Farming

Farmers’ Union of Wales responds to Foot and Mouth case in Germany

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THE FARMER’S UNION OF WALES has responded to reports of a confirmed case of Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) in Germany.

The disease was identified on 10 January in a water buffalo on a farm in Märkisch-Oderland, Brandenburg, marking Germany’s first case of FMD in nearly 40 years.

Foot and Mouth disease does not pose a risk to human health or food safety.

In response, the UK Government has implemented a ban on the import of cattle, pigs, and sheep from Germany. Additional measures include the suspension of import health certificates for live animals and fresh meat from species susceptible to Foot and Mouth disease.

Commenting on the development, FUW President Ian Rickman said:

“The recent case of Foot and Mouth disease in Germany will be a source of concern for livestock farmers across Europe.

The news inevitably brings back memories of the devastating impact the disease had on the agriculture sector and the countryside in 2001. This serves as a timely reminder of the importance of stringent border checks to prevent such diseases from entering the UK.

We welcome the proactive steps taken by the German authorities and the UK Government’s decision to ban livestock imports from Germany. As the situation unfolds, we will closely monitor developments and encourage livestock keepers to remain vigilant.”

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Farming

West Wales dairy farm leads the way in sustainable agriculture

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A Welsh farming family is making significant strides in reducing the environmental impact of their dairy business, achieving an impressive carbon footprint of 1.06kg CO2 equivalent (CO2e) per kilogram of fat and protein corrected milk (FPCM).

Roger and Catherine Howells, who run Blaengelli Farm in Whitland, attribute this achievement to years of investment in infrastructure and a steadfast commitment to high animal welfare standards.

Sustainable efforts and key milestones

The Howells family continues to evolve their sustainability journey, recently participating in an assessment funded by Lloyds Banking Group through the Soil Association Exchange. This comprehensive evaluation examined six critical areas: soil, biodiversity, animal welfare, water, carbon, and social impact. The resulting analysis provided the family with tailored insights to identify areas for further improvement.

“As part of our contract with our milk processor, we’ve taken part in sustainability audits for the past five years, so we’re pretty well versed in this area,” Roger explained.

“However, we saw this as an opportunity to build a full picture of the farm and thought it might support us in looking more closely at our soil health. The assessment considered soil pH, phosphate and potash levels, as well as copper and magnesium, which we hadn’t analyzed before,” he added.

Tailored action plan for improvement

The audit process provided Blaengelli Farm with a bespoke action plan, highlighting areas where environmental and operational efficiencies could be achieved. Farms undergoing this process are also signposted to funding opportunities to implement recommended improvements.

The Howells family scored particularly high in animal welfare, reflecting their focus on herd management and disease prevention.

However, their sustainability efforts have faced challenges. A recent TB outbreak forced the family to double their youngstock numbers to replace lost animals, increasing their replacement rate from 25% to 50%. Consequently, methane emissions rose, leading to an increase in their CO2e footprint to 1.27kg CO2e per kilogram of FPCM.

Tackling challenges with innovation

Despite setbacks, the Howells remain committed to progress. Measures to address their farm’s environmental impact include:

  • Introducing clover to reduce nitrogen inputs.
  • Applying farmyard manure to fields with low phosphate levels.
  • Planting deeper-rooting grasses and legumes to boost soil organic matter and carbon capture.
  • Adjusting soil pH to improve fertilizer efficiency.

“We’ve already started applying farmyard manure to low-phosphate and potash fields and plan to apply lime to fields that weren’t at the optimum pH at the time of testing,” said Roger.

A wider initiative for sustainable agriculture

The achievements at Blaengelli Farm are part of a broader effort by Lloyds Banking Group to support farmers transitioning to sustainable practices. By funding over 80% of farms participating in the Soil Association Exchange assessment, the bank is helping establish a robust environmental baseline for UK agriculture.

Lee Reeves, UK Head of Agriculture at Lloyds Bank, highlighted the importance of this partnership:
“The partnership between Lloyds Banking Group and the Soil Association Exchange is the most ambitious of its kind, focusing on building a holistic view of farming’s environmental impact.

“By providing farmers with the tools and finance they need, we’re helping the sector to adapt during a great time of change.”

This pioneering approach positions Blaengelli Farm and others like it at the forefront of the transition to sustainable agriculture in Wales and beyond.

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