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Generation gap spells trouble for Tories

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ON MONDAY, the Conservative think-tank Onward published a report into generational voting patterns, policy priorities and political values.

The report considers why age has become the key dividing line in British politics, what has happened since the last general election, and what can be done to win over millions of younger people deserting the centre-right in considerable numbers.

The report follows a detailed 10,000 sample poll, conducted by Hanbury Strategy. It is the largest study of the generation gap since age became the key political dividing line in British politics.

Younger and older voters have always been politically different, but never by this much

In 2017, the gap between younger and older voters was 50 points larger than the post-war average since 1945 and five times higher than in 2010. It started, in 2015 before Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn became the leader of the Labour Party. This gap has grown, not narrowed, since the last General Election.

In 2017, “the tipping point age” – the median age at which a voter is more likely to vote Conservative than Labour – was 47 years old. The report establishes that, since the election, “the tipping point” has risen by 4 years to 51 years old.

The Conservative age curve is getting steeper. Among 18–24-year-olds, 14% said they would vote Conservative if there was an election today. 62% said they would vote Labour. 9% of this group said they would vote for the Liberal Democrats.

Among those over 65 years old, the opposite was true, 56% of respondents said they would vote Conservative, against 24% for Labour. The only groups with a net positive vote for Conservatives are 55–64s and voters over the age of 65.

Projecting the results of the survey forward to 2022 shows that the Conservatives face a wipeout in Wales.

If age continues to be a predictor of vote intention, the Conservatives are also in trouble in London. For example, Putney, which has a majority of just 3.3%, has 2.6 younger people for every older person. Other Conservative seats potentially affected by the demographic shift include the Cities of London and Westminster, Hendon, Chelsea and Fulham, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip (currently held by would-be PM Boris Johnson).

According to Onward, the dissonance between different age groups largely down to the Conservatives’ failure to win over younger voters. 28% of under-35s would consider voting Conservative, but fewer than 17% say they would do so if an election were held today. Onward says that this amounts to 3 million voters young Conservative considerers which could be won over but currently would not vote for the party.

Polling among the younger age group suggests that on some policies, the Conservatives could be knocking on an open door. 18-24s are most in favour (63%) of keeping more of their own money and paying less tax. However, they also favour making the economy fairer, not just bigger. Nearly two-thirds of people favour “reducing the gap between rich and poor” over “working to create faster economic growth”, with 18-24s most in favour (67%).

On immigration, there is net support for reducing immigration in every age bracket, within every ethnic group, and among Remain voters.

In terms of priorities, the environment is the third top issue for 18-24-year-old voters and younger voters.

Notably, immigration is of far lesser importance to younger voters than older ones, a reverse of the position on welfare benefits, about which older voters are far less exercised. All age groups regard the NHS and Brexit as the top two priorities.

A disconcerting gap is rising in the Conservatives’ appeal to female voters. Only 8% of 18-24-year-old women would vote Conservative today, which correlates heavily with pessimism: 56% of women think the next generation will be worse off than their own. Meanwhile, Asian voters (42%) are nearly as likely to consider voting Conservative as White voters (44%), but only half as many would do so today.

 

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Welsh Labour promises right to read and play for every child in Wales

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New fund would expand toy libraries and automatically register babies for library cards

EVERY child in Wales will have an equal right to read and play, regardless of their background, under plans announced by Welsh Labour today.

The party says that if it is re-elected in the next Senedd term, it will introduce a new programme aimed at improving access to books and toys for families across the country.

The proposals include automatic registration for a library card for every child in Wales when a baby’s birth is registered, the creation of a nationwide network of 100 toy libraries, and a new Children’s Reading and Play Fund. The fund would help pay for toys and increase the number of children’s books available in both public and school libraries.

Welsh Labour says the measures are designed to ensure that children from all backgrounds have access to resources that support learning, creativity and early development.

Cabinet Secretary for Education Lynne Neagle said the plans would help ensure no child misses out on opportunities because of their family’s financial circumstances.

“Every child in Wales should have access to books and toys, regardless of their background. No child should have to go without because their family can’t afford them,” she said.

“Books and toys are a vital part of growing up. The new Children’s Reading and Play Fund would ensure this is a right for every child in Wales and help reduce costs for families.”

Toy libraries operate in a similar way to traditional libraries, allowing families to borrow toys and return them after use. While some toy libraries already exist in parts of Wales, access is currently patchy.

Welsh Labour says its proposal would establish a national network of 100 toy libraries to ensure a more consistent offer across the country. Under the plan, the libraries would work together and receive national support and promotion.

The party argues that improving access to books and play materials can help support early literacy, learning and social development for young children while easing financial pressure on families.

Further details about the proposed Children’s Reading and Play Fund are expected to be set out as part of Welsh Labour’s programme for the next Senedd term.

 

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School leaders criticise Reform education plans after manifesto launch

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SCHOOL leaders in Wales have raised concerns about elements of Reform UK’s education policies following the launch of the party’s Senedd election manifesto.

The reaction came after Reform Wales unveiled its programme for government on Thursday (Mar 5), which includes proposals aimed at reshaping the Welsh education system.

Among the policies outlined by the party are plans to introduce school league tables and move towards an academy-style system similar to that used in England.

However, the proposals have drawn criticism from education leaders who say some of the ideas risk misunderstanding the realities facing schools.

Union response

Responding to the manifesto, Laura Doel, national secretary of the school leaders’ union NAHT Cymru, said the plans appeared to look backwards rather than addressing the challenges currently facing schools.

She said: “Reform has acknowledged the need to return to core teaching and learning, but has missed the real opportunity here by looking backwards at outdated practice, rather than forward to focusing on what will make a real difference.”

She also challenged the suggestion that schools place too much emphasis on emotional support for pupils.

“The idea that there is too much emotional support for pupils in schools is completely misunderstanding the situation on the ground,” she said.

“School staff are wrestling daily with the symptoms of children and young people’s emotional distress, and without tackling these issues they will continue to get in the way of their learning. Schools need more funding for emotional support, not less.”

League tables questioned

Reform’s plans to introduce league tables comparing school performance also came under criticism.

Doel said there was little evidence such measures would improve education standards or reduce pressure on teachers.

“It is hard to see how introducing league tables pitting schools against each other will reduce bureaucracy or do anything to lessen workload and pressure or free up school staff to teach,” she said.

“And there is no evidence that the structure of a school leads to improvement, so we question why Reform would seek to move to academisation in Wales.”

Some elements welcomed

Despite the criticism, NAHT Cymru said parts of the proposals could be beneficial if developed further.

Doel said school leaders would welcome reforms to Additional Learning Needs (ALN) provision and stronger support for speech and language therapies.

However, she warned that much of the policy appeared disconnected from the day-to-day challenges facing schools.

“Much of it is extremely misguided and fundamentally misunderstands the realities facing schools and young people in Wales,” she said.

“Reform policy might benefit from deeper engagement with school leaders and other education professionals.”

Reform response

Reform Wales has argued its education proposals are aimed at raising standards and improving accountability within the Welsh school system.

The party says reforms such as league tables would help parents better understand how schools are performing and ensure greater transparency in education.

Election debate intensifies

The reaction highlights the growing debate over education policy as parties set out their competing visions ahead of the Senedd election on Thursday (May 7).

Education remains one of the most contested issues in Welsh politics, with concerns frequently raised about pupil attainment, teacher workload and funding pressures.

As campaigning continues, education policy is expected to be a key battleground between parties seeking to convince voters they have the answers to improving standards in Welsh schools.

 

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Reform energy policy raises questions for Milford Haven and Celtic Freeport ambitions

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PLANS outlined in Reform UK’s Welsh manifesto have sparked debate over how the party’s energy policies could affect the future of Milford Haven’s rapidly expanding role in the UK’s energy transition.

The party’s manifesto, launched on Thursday (Mar 5), includes proposals to ban new onshore wind farms and large-scale solar developments in Wales — a stance which has drawn criticism from the renewable energy industry.

Responding to questions from The Pembrokeshire Herald on Thursday, a Reform Wales spokesperson said the party’s approach was driven by concerns about rising household energy costs.

“Reform will put energy bills and hard pressed families at the centre of every energy decision,” the spokesperson said.

RenewableUK Cymru warned that such policies could undermine investment in the country’s growing clean energy sector, potentially affecting thousands of jobs and billions of pounds of planned investment.

Freeport and floating wind ambitions

The issue is particularly relevant for Pembrokeshire, where Milford Haven sits at the heart of the Celtic Freeport, a major economic initiative designed to transform the area into a hub for green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Central to those plans is the development of floating offshore wind farms in the Celtic Sea, with ports such as Milford Haven expected to play a key role in assembling, servicing and supporting large turbine installations.

Industry leaders believe the Celtic Sea wind projects could bring tens of billions of pounds of investment into Wales over the coming decades, alongside thousands of jobs in engineering, manufacturing and port services.

Supporters say the Freeport could position Pembrokeshire as one of the UK’s most important centres for the renewable energy supply chain.

Renewable industry response

Responding to Reform’s manifesto, RenewableUK Cymru director Jess Hooper said restricting renewable energy projects would be a mistake at a time when Wales has major opportunities in the sector.

She said: “Homegrown renewable energy has been a shield, not a burden. Investing in a renewable energy system is a sensible and pragmatic choice for billpayers.

“The manifesto commitment to ban new onshore wind and solar would only lead to higher bills, weaker energy security, and Wales would miss out on the huge opportunity to secure new jobs and investment.”

The organisation estimates that Wales could secure £10bn of business investment and create around 8,000 jobs through renewable energy projects if development continues at scale.

Offshore wind not directly targeted

However, Reform’s manifesto does not propose banning offshore wind developments, which form the core of the Celtic Sea plans.

Floating wind projects are widely expected to be developed far out to sea, using specialised turbines anchored to floating platforms.

As a result, analysts say the Freeport strategy centred on offshore wind could still move forward even if onshore wind and solar projects were restricted.

Energy debate intensifies

Reform argues its policies are designed to protect rural landscapes and reduce energy costs by shifting the focus away from what it describes as “subsidy-heavy” renewable schemes.

The party says Wales should prioritise reliable and affordable energy sources while ensuring the country benefits economically from its natural resources.

But critics say limiting renewable development could weaken investor confidence and slow the growth of Wales’ emerging clean energy sector.

Pembrokeshire at the centre of the debate

With Milford Haven already home to the UK’s largest LNG terminals and now positioning itself as a centre for offshore wind development, Pembrokeshire finds itself at the centre of a growing political debate about the future of Wales’ energy system.

As the Senedd election campaign gathers pace ahead of polling day on Thursday (May 7), the question of how Wales balances energy security, environmental policy and economic growth is likely to remain a key issue — particularly in communities like Milford Haven where the stakes are especially high.

 

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