Politics
Generation gap spells trouble for Tories
ON MONDAY, the Conservative think-tank Onward published a report into generational voting patterns, policy priorities and political values.
The report considers why age has become the key dividing line in British politics, what has happened since the last general election, and what can be done to win over millions of younger people deserting the centre-right in considerable numbers.
The report follows a detailed 10,000 sample poll, conducted by Hanbury Strategy. It is the largest study of the generation gap since age became the key political dividing line in British politics.
Younger and older voters have always been politically different, but never by this much
In 2017, the gap between younger and older voters was 50 points larger than the post-war average since 1945 and five times higher than in 2010. It started, in 2015 before Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn became the leader of the Labour Party. This gap has grown, not narrowed, since the last General Election.
In 2017, “the tipping point age” – the median age at which a voter is more likely to vote Conservative than Labour – was 47 years old. The report establishes that, since the election, “the tipping point” has risen by 4 years to 51 years old.
The Conservative age curve is getting steeper. Among 18–24-year-olds, 14% said they would vote Conservative if there was an election today. 62% said they would vote Labour. 9% of this group said they would vote for the Liberal Democrats.
Among those over 65 years old, the opposite was true, 56% of respondents said they would vote Conservative, against 24% for Labour. The only groups with a net positive vote for Conservatives are 55–64s and voters over the age of 65.
Projecting the results of the survey forward to 2022 shows that the Conservatives face a wipeout in Wales.
If age continues to be a predictor of vote intention, the Conservatives are also in trouble in London. For example, Putney, which has a majority of just 3.3%, has 2.6 younger people for every older person. Other Conservative seats potentially affected by the demographic shift include the Cities of London and Westminster, Hendon, Chelsea and Fulham, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip (currently held by would-be PM Boris Johnson).
According to Onward, the dissonance between different age groups largely down to the Conservatives’ failure to win over younger voters. 28% of under-35s would consider voting Conservative, but fewer than 17% say they would do so if an election were held today. Onward says that this amounts to 3 million voters young Conservative considerers which could be won over but currently would not vote for the party.
Polling among the younger age group suggests that on some policies, the Conservatives could be knocking on an open door. 18-24s are most in favour (63%) of keeping more of their own money and paying less tax. However, they also favour making the economy fairer, not just bigger. Nearly two-thirds of people favour “reducing the gap between rich and poor” over “working to create faster economic growth”, with 18-24s most in favour (67%).
On immigration, there is net support for reducing immigration in every age bracket, within every ethnic group, and among Remain voters.
In terms of priorities, the environment is the third top issue for 18-24-year-old voters and younger voters.
Notably, immigration is of far lesser importance to younger voters than older ones, a reverse of the position on welfare benefits, about which older voters are far less exercised. All age groups regard the NHS and Brexit as the top two priorities.
A disconcerting gap is rising in the Conservatives’ appeal to female voters. Only 8% of 18-24-year-old women would vote Conservative today, which correlates heavily with pessimism: 56% of women think the next generation will be worse off than their own. Meanwhile, Asian voters (42%) are nearly as likely to consider voting Conservative as White voters (44%), but only half as many would do so today.
News
Too many children in Wales living in poverty – Lib Dems want action
THIS week in the Senedd, the Welsh Liberal Democrats renewed their demands for the implementation of child poverty targets.
According to a report from the Bevan foundation, 29% of children living in Wales are currently experiencing poverty (an estimated 190,000 children).
The same report highlighted that the largest percentage of children living in poverty are from working households or in couple households.
The Welsh Lib Dems are now renewing calls for the Welsh Government to create a set of targets for reducing child poverty, which the party argues will allow for more accountability.
The party has previously called for the implementation of targets, citing recommendations from the Calling Time on Child Poverty Report published in November last year.
Commenting, the Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds MS said: “The latest statistics on childhood poverty in Wales paints a very distressing image of families across the country struggling to make ends meet.
Over the course of the last six years, the proportion of children in poverty has skyrocketed. Fuelled by worsening economic conditions and a complete lack of action from both governments in Westminster and Cardiff Bay.
We cannot act complacent about these figures nor accept the clear lack of progress in fighting child poverty, behind each statistic is a child that the state has failed.
It remains painfully clear that the Welsh Government is failing to make any meaningful progress in this fight, which is why they must follow through with the implementation of clear set targets that will allow for further accountability.
We as a party have continuously called for the creation of these targets and we will not be silenced. For the sake of future generations we urge the Welsh Government to listen.”
Education
Conservative calls for academies and free schools rejected by Senedd
THE SENEDD has rejected calls to introduce free schools and academies after a report found major challenges in Wales’ education system.
Tom Giffard led a Conservative debate on educational attainment, warning that Wales is consistently at the bottom of UK-wide league tables.
The party’s new shadow education secretary pointed to an Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) report on education in Wales which found low outcomes and high levels of inequality.
Mr Giffard told the Senedd the IFS report highlights the pitfalls of the Welsh Government putting all its eggs in the basket of a skills-based approach.
Criticising a failure to measure skills inequalities and pupil progress, he stressed that Wales’ lower performance is due to policy and approach rather than funding or the pandemic.
He said: “It seems the Welsh Government relies on Pisa results to tell the story but then, when those same results are all too disappointing, they are dismissed in equal measure.”
Mr Giffard, who previously worked in a primary school, said declines in Pisa results can be observed in almost every country that has adopted a skills-based approach.
Raising concerns about disappointing Pisa results, the South Wales West MS pointed out that Wales saw the lowest scores in the UK for every subject.
Heledd Fychan, Plaid Cymru’s shadow education secretary, warned that Wales’ schools are understaffed and facing difficult decisions due to budgets being at breaking point.
She criticised implementation of the Welsh Government’s additional learning needs (ALN) reforms, saying schools cannot realise the aims without the budget to bring them to life.
Ms Fychan said Plaid Cymru agreed with much of the Tory motion but her party would not support calls for free schools and academies.
Sam Rowlands described the IFS report as damning, warning that the Welsh Government’s education reforms have been disastrous and have widened inequality.
The Tory MS claimed the reforms are systematically holding back disadvantaged children, saying: “The most remarkable fact is that the performance of disadvantaged children in England is either above or similar to the average for all children in Wales.”
Mr Rowlands added: “The poorest in England’s schools are doing the same or better than the Welsh average, thanks to ambition, the academies and free schools.”
Samuel Kurtz, a fellow Tory, said free schools and academies have driven up standards in England as he argued a Wales roll-out provides an opportunity to improve outcomes.
James Evans, the Conservative MS for Brecon and Radnorshire, highlighted the party’s pledge to get 5,000 more teachers into Wales’ classrooms.
Buffy Williams, the newly elected chair of the Senedd’s education committee, said Wales is undergoing a profound transformation propelled by ALN and curriculum reforms.
The Labour MS for Rhondda stressed the importance of listening to teachers and allowing ample time for the reforms to take root in classrooms across Wales.
Altaf Hussain recounted a conversation he had this week with a headteacher at one of the largest schools in his South Wales West region.
The Conservative said: “The major improvements they have been delivering to attainment and addressing behavioural issues are all at risk because of cuts to funding.
“Vital work undertaken to improve the lives of young people with additional needs could be halted because they cannot afford to continue employing the support workers.”
Lynne Neagle recognised the scale and seriousness of work still ahead to improve Wales’ education system, stressing: “I am not, in any way, complacent about that task.”
Wales’ newly appointed education secretary, who takes over from Jeremy Miles, said sustained improvement in attainment will be among her top priorities.
She told the chamber: “My early focus has been to listen closely to schools and where it is clear that schools seek more scaffolding.”
Ms Neagle said the Welsh Government will work with trade unions and employers to reduce workload and eliminate unnecessary red tape.
The Conservative motion was voted down, 14-35, following the debate on April 24. The motion as amended by the Welsh Government was agreed, 26-23.
Climate
£1m turbine application to be decided by all councillors at County Hall
A TWICE-BACKED £1m scheme for a “20-storey-high” wind turbine at a Pembrokeshire mansion will have to be decided by all councillors.
Mr and Mrs Glen Peters of Western Solar Ltd are seeking permission for a single turbine on land near the Grade II-listed Rhosygilwen Mansion, which includes an arts and functions building known as Neuaddydderwen.
Members of the April meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council’s planning committee were recommended to refuse the scheme, despite backing it at their March meeting.
This backing meant the application returned to the April meeting for ratification after a ‘cooling off’ period; the application having been deferred at the January meeting pending a site visit.
It was initially recommended for refusal in January for several reasons, including potential harm to the setting of the Grade-II-listed house and grounds, and fears of threats to the safe operation of West Wales Airport at Aberporth in neighbouring Ceredigion, some 9.5 kilometres away.
The last concern was later withdrawn.
In papers ahead of the April meeting, officers, again recommending refusal, have said the scheme “would not protect or enhance the setting [of Rhosygilwen] but rather would result in significant harm to this interest of acknowledged importance”.
They have also warned any backing of the scheme against policy recommendations could set a precedent for similar developments.
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