Politics

Start of Term Report: Labour in Wales

Published

6 years ago

September 3, 2020

PROFESSOR Roger Awan-Scully writes:
I have used this point in the political calendar – the return after the summer recess – to assess the current electoral standing of the main parties in Wales.

Over the next couple of weeks, I intend to revive this custom, and address a single, simple question: with just a few months until the Senedd election, where do each of the main parties stand?

I begin this series of pieces with an assessment of the position of Wales’ long-dominant party, Labour.
A good place to start assessing the immediate prospects for a party is to review its immediate past. For Labour that recent past has been problematic. The December 2019 general election saw the party once again come first in Wales in both votes and seats – for the 27th general election in a row. But such an outcome has rarely felt less victorious.

Across the UK, Labour suffered their worst post-war general election defeat. Even in its ultimate bastion of Wales, Labour lost six parliamentary seats, thus achieving their lowest number of Welsh MPs since the debacle of 1983; the party also saw its vote share drop by a full eight percentage points on 2017 – a decline that was actually slightly worse than their Britain-wide average.

The closer you looked at the general election result for Welsh Labour, the worse it got.

Labour’s vote share fell in 39 of the forty Welsh seats (with exception being Montgomeryshire, where they were never remotely in the running).

In north Wales, only Mark Tami hanging on by a whisker in Alyn and Deeside prevented a complete Labour wipeout, and even seats like Wrexham that had been Labour for decades were lost.

Yet while north Wales was where the map changed colour most obviously, in other places Labour’s decline was even starker.

There were seven seats, all in south Wales, where the fall in Labour vote share was greater than in any of the six seats that were lost. Even in many places where the electoral map remained red, Labour was in significant retreat.

And the December disaster was not a one-off.

In the unplanned for European election earlier in 2019, Welsh Labour accrued their lowest vote share at any Wales-wide election since before World War I, and finished behind Plaid Cymru in such a contest for the first time ever.

The months that followed saw Welsh Labour’s opinion poll ratings, for both Westminster and the Senedd, reach the lowest levels ever recorded; they also saw the Labour candidate barely saving his deposit in the Brecon and Radnor by-election.

Since the general election, of course, an enormous amount has changed. One thing that will surely be of long-term importance is that the UK party is now led by Sir Keir Starmer, not Jeremy Corbyn.

While the circumstances of recent months have limited Starmer’s ability to reach out to the British public, the polling evidence already indicates him doing better with them than his predecessor ever managed. But those circumstances – the Covid-19 pandemic and its manifold implications – have become the defining political reality of the present.

In Wales, as across Britain as a whole, Labour’s poll ratings have largely been driven by public evaluations of the Conservative UK government’s handling of Covid. In the first few weeks of the crisis (as was seen in the April Welsh Political Barometer poll), the public largely ‘rallied to the flag’; these tendencies were reinforced for a while by personal sympathy extended to a severely unwell Prime Minister Johnson. As public evaluations of the UK government’s handling of Covid-19 have subsequently worsened, the electoral position of Labour has improved.

It has long been the case that Welsh devolved elections are influenced by the Britain-wide political context. But to an even greater extent than usual, Welsh Labour’s electoral prospects for May 2021 are likely to be shaped by factors wholly out of its control.

The most obvious of these factors is Covid – the development of the disease and treatments for it, the manifold social and economic implications of the crisis, and public evaluations of how the UK government addresses these problems. But another important issue will likely be Brexit, a project that is, of course, very closely identified with Prime Minister Johnson.

Having formally left the EU at the end of January 2020, the UK is due to depart the union’s economic space by the end of this calendar year; how smoothly that occurs will do much to shape public reactions to the Conservatives and, in consequence, the political fortunes of Labour.

One Britain-wide factor that is surely positive for Welsh Labour is that they are no longer shackled to the electoral corpse of Corbynism. Yet even that positive may be limited in value: in Wales, as across Britain, it is likely to take some time for damage done to the Labour brand to be repaired.

When you have been publicly punching yourself in the face for nearly five years, it takes a while for voters to forget.

Having said all that, Welsh Labour can still shape its own electoral fate.

How the Welsh Government has handled Covid within Wales will surely be subject to extensive scrutiny over the next few months. The outcome to the Senedd election will also affected by the effectiveness of campaigning and leadership within Wales. In these respects, things are looking rather better for Labour than they were. Mark Drakeford’s first year as Welsh Labour leader could scarcely have gone much worse: not only were there the election and polling results for the party discussed above, but public evaluations of him personally were similarly dreadful. Large proportions of Welsh voters didn’t know who he was, and those who did were generally unimpressed.

But the Covid crisis has substantially enhanced the First Minister’s public visibility, and the seriousness of the crisis has played to his strengths. Mark Drakeford will never be a natural at ‘retail politics’, but the most recent Welsh Political Barometer poll suggested, for the first time ever, that he could become an electoral asset for his party next May rather a significant liability.

The electoral battleground onto which Welsh Labour and their opponents will march is one defined by the 2016 result. That constituted an overwhelmingly successful rearguard action by Welsh Labour: against a difficult UK-wide context their vote share fell substantially on 2011, yet the party lost only one seat.
Many seats that Labour had won very comfortably in 2011 became significantly more marginal in 2016, whereas seats they had come close to gaining five years previously now receded from view. Thus, the results from 2016 show that there are nine Labour-held constituencies that could fall on a lower swing than would needed for Labour to gain their most marginal target seat of Aberconwy (where Labour would need a 3.35 percent swing to gain the seat, coming from third place).

While some of the apparently marginal seats from 2016 (such as Cardiff West and Blaenau Gwent) may present a misleading picture due to specific local circumstances, the overall picture suggested by the above statistic is surely correct: Welsh Labour in 2021 have much more potential to lose seats than to gain them.

Some geographical nuance is needed, however. In the North Wales electoral region, two Labour seats – Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham – are obviously marginal. However, on a difficult night for Labour where they lost both to the Conservatives, they might well gain a list seat in partial compensation, limiting their overall losses to one.

In Mid and West Wales, Labour’s potential losses are probably also capped at one seat: if Lee Waters were to be defeated in perennially-marginal Llanelli that would solidify even further the party’s two regional list seats.

It is in south Wales were the potential action lies.

Labour’s continued dominance of the Senedd is based on their grip over the constituency seats in the three southern electoral regions. The majority of these seats have been uninterruptedly Labour for the entire lifetime of the Senedd; indeed in South Wales West the total number of constituency contests Labour have ever lost is zero.

The limited number of regional list seats here is wholly insufficient to compensate the other parties proportionally for Labour’s constituency dominance. The converse of this is that any Labour losses here would be pure losses: the party would need to sustain multiple constituency defeats in any one region before it became likely to gain any list seats in compensation.

If the non-Labour forces in the Senedd are ever to crack Labour’s dominance of the chamber (at least under the current electoral system) then they have to make serious inroads into the south Wales constituencies: there is simply no alternative.

The next Welsh Political Barometer poll (coming soon!) will provide the latest evidence on how Labour and their opponents are currently doing.

But no party has yet finished within ten seats of Labour at a Senedd election. It would take a brave or foolhardy person to bet against their dominance of devolved politics ending in May 2021.

News

Childcare row erupts as Plaid faces questions over costs and delivery

Published

4 minutes ago

June 11, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Opposition parties clash over flagship pledge as Senedd debate exposes growing divisions

PLAID CYMRU’S flagship promise to create what it describes as the “most generous childcare offer in the United Kingdom” has become the centre of an increasingly bitter political row, with questions mounting over cost, delivery and whether the plans are fully developed.

In a week of political sparring in Cardiff Bay, both Reform Wales and the Welsh Conservatives accused the Plaid-led Government of failing to explain how the policy will be funded or when families will actually see the promised support.

At the same time, Reform and the Conservatives turned on each other in the Senedd chamber, accusing rival MSs of hypocrisy over childcare votes.

The increasingly heated exchanges underline how childcare is emerging as one of the first major battlegrounds of the new Senedd term.

PROMISES UNDER PRESSURE

Plaid Cymru campaigned heavily on a pledge to expand childcare support across Wales, describing it as a transformational policy for working families.

However, critics say ministers have yet to provide detailed costings, timelines or clear implementation plans.

The concerns first surfaced following comments made by Deputy First Minister Sioned Williams in an ITV Wales interview, where she suggested detailed planning for the scheme had not yet begun.

That prompted criticism from Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Minister for Education, Families and Constitution Sam Rowlands MS.

Mr Rowlands said: “Improving childcare in Wales is important and can provide the support many parents need, but Plaid cannot roll out their flagship policy without being honest about how it will be funded.

“The Deputy First Minister’s comments in an ITV interview that Plaid have not yet begun planning how this will be fully delivered are extremely concerning.”

The Conservatives argued that because Plaid had supported Labour’s budget prior to entering government, ministers should have already developed a workable delivery model.

Mr Rowlands added: “The Welsh Conservatives believe that any funding for this policy must not come from cuts to essential services.”

REFORM: ‘ALL TALK, NO DELIVERY’

Reform Wales later escalated the criticism, accusing Plaid ministers of prioritising announcements over delivery.

Responding to a Welsh Government childcare statement this week, Reform Wales Deputy Leader and Shadow Cabinet Minister for Education and the Welsh Language Helen Jenner MS said families had still not been given meaningful clarity.

Ms Jenner said: “Plaid Cymru’s manifesto promised what it described as the most generous childcare offer in the United Kingdom, but there is still no clarity on cost, funding or delivery timelines.

“Today’s statement has offered more talk of working groups, planning exercises and future phases, rather than clear delivery or firm commitments.”

Reform said parents deserved “full transparency” over how the childcare offer would be funded and delivered.

SENEDD DEBATE TURNS INTO POLITICAL BRAWL

The argument intensified dramatically during a Senedd debate on childcare on Wednesday (Jun 10).

The original Reform motion criticised the Welsh Government’s approach to childcare, but amendments tabled by Plaid Cymru changed the wording before the final vote.

The amended motion ultimately passed by 61 votes to 29, with one abstention.

The debate triggered a furious exchange between Reform and the Conservatives.

Conservative MS Sam Rowlands accused Reform Members of the Senedd of effectively criticising their own party after 11 Reform MSs voted for an amended motion which noted Reform UK had made no childcare commitments in its Welsh manifesto.

“What surprised everyone was that 11 Reform MSs voted with us and Plaid to attack their own party,” Mr Rowlands said.

“Either Reform MSs have no idea what they were doing or one third have decided to attack their own party.”

REFORM HITS BACK

Reform Wales quickly responded, accusing the Conservatives of siding with Plaid Cymru and helping the Government avoid scrutiny.

Dan Thomas MS, Reform Wales Leader of the Opposition, said the Conservatives had effectively given ministers a “blank cheque”.

Mr Thomas said: “The Conservatives had a perfect opportunity to stand with Reform Wales and hold this Plaid Cymru minority government to account.

“Instead, they chose to side with the Government and have effectively written the Government a blank cheque on a policy expected to cost hundreds of millions of pounds.”

He added: “The people of Wales deserve full transparency on every major policy brought forward by this administration.”

WHO IS RIGHT?

Behind the political point-scoring lies a genuine policy question: how much will expanded childcare cost, and how quickly can it realistically be delivered?

Plaid Cymru’s childcare pledge was one of the centrepieces of its election offer to families. But critics argue that major reforms of this scale usually require significant workforce expansion, new childcare capacity and detailed cost modelling.

Supporters of the policy say investment in childcare pays for itself through higher employment, better early-years development and lower long-term social costs.

The Herald understands ministers are expected to face increasing pressure in the coming weeks to publish more detailed plans, including funding arrangements and delivery timetables.

For now, childcare has become one of the first major flashpoints of the new Senedd — exposing fault lines not only between government and opposition, but between opposition parties competing to define themselves as the toughest critics of Plaid Cymru’s minority administration.

News

Davies attacks Welsh Government funding for campaign urging people to limit red meat

Published

13 hours ago

June 10, 2026

Tom Sinclair

WELSH CONSERVATIVE Shadow Farming Minister Andrew RT Davies has called on Plaid Cymru ministers to stop funding public information campaigns which he says undermine Welsh meat.

The criticism follows a Welsh Government response to a written question from Welsh Conservative Senedd Leader Darren Millar, which showed £662,000 was allocated to the Climate Action Wales campaign during 2025-26.

Examples of the campaign include online advice on ‘green food choices’, sustainable eating and meat-free options, alongside wider material on energy, travel and consumer behaviour.

The campaign gives advice on reducing carbon emissions through choices on food, travel, energy and purchasing. Its sustainable food guidance says meat is among the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from ruminant livestock such as cows and sheep.

It also advises people to limit red and processed meat, while saying those who do eat meat should try to buy local, sustainably farmed produce where available.

Mr Davies said Welsh meat should be promoted rather than undermined.

He said: “Welsh meat is of the highest quality and the industry forms a key part of our economy.

“Plaid Cymru separatists must celebrate it, not fund campaigns that undermine Welsh meat.

“No project aimed at discouraging meat consumption should receive public funds.”

The Welsh Government response said the figures related to public information campaigns connected to the previous government’s policies.

Education

Reform MS takes Church school row to Welsh Government

Published

14 hours ago

June 10, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Claire Archibald says proposals affecting Cilgerran and Manorbier show rural families risk losing real parental choice

A REFORM UK Senedd member has asked the Welsh Government to intervene over the future of Church schools in West Wales, following growing concern about proposals affecting rural schools in Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion.

Claire Archibald MS, who represents Ceredigion Penfro, has written to Education Minister Anna Brychan asking what safeguards are in place to protect Church schools, Christian education and parental choice.

Her intervention follows months of controversy over the future of rural education provision, including proposals affecting Cilgerran Church in Wales Voluntary Controlled School and Manorbier Church in Wales Voluntary Controlled School.

Pembrokeshire County Council has consulted on plans to discontinue Cilgerran Church in Wales VC School and establish a new 3-11 community school in its place.

In Manorbier, the council has also progressed proposals to discontinue the village’s Church in Wales school, which has been at the centre of a long-running row following a serious fire.

Ms Archibald said the issue should not be treated as a simple administrative change.

She said: “Christianity has helped shape Wales for generations. It is part of our history, our values, and the life of many of our villages and towns.

“Church schools matter. They give parents the choice of a Christian education for their children, and in rural areas that choice can be lost very easily when a school is closed, reorganised, or stripped of its Church status.

“I fully understand that councils face financial pressures and difficult decisions, but we cannot allow those pressures to quietly erase Christian school provision from rural Wales.

“These are not just technical changes. They affect parental choice, community life, and the future of Christian education in Wales.”

Rural school concerns

The Herald has previously reported on strong opposition to changes at Cilgerran, where many parents and residents have argued that the school’s Church status is part of its identity and community role.

The Manorbier case has also attracted significant local attention, with campaigners arguing that the village school should be protected following the disruption caused by the fire and the temporary relocation of pupils.

Ms Archibald said the pattern across rural Wales was worrying.

She has also raised concerns about proposals affecting village schools in Ceredigion, including Ysgol Llanfihangel y Creuddyn, a community school on a Church in Wales-owned site.

She said: “Parents should not be told they have choice on paper when the nearest realistic alternative may be many miles away.

“In rural areas, distance matters. Transport matters. Community matters.

“I have asked the Education Minister to set out what safeguards are in place to protect Church schools, Christian education, rural communities, and parental choice before these decisions are allowed to go ahead.”

Questions for ministers

In her letter, Ms Archibald asked the Welsh Government to confirm what assessment has been made of Church schools closed, discontinued, or proposed for category change in Wales.

She has also asked whether stronger guidance will be issued to councils considering proposals that affect Church schools.

The MS has requested that the minister meet affected parents, governors, local representatives and the relevant dioceses.

Councils have previously argued that school reorganisation proposals must take account of pupil numbers, building conditions, budgets, educational standards and long-term sustainability.

However, campaigners say that in rural communities the closure or reclassification of a school can have consequences beyond education, including the loss of community identity, longer journeys for children and fewer realistic choices for parents.