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Politics

Pembrokeshire heads to the polls

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THE ELECTIONS to the Welsh Parliament/Senedd Cymru take place today, Thursday (May 6).

Over the last few weeks, we’ve published a guide to the manifestos of each of Wales’ principal parties.

Next today is the crunch and after that comes the business of forming a government.

But first, voting.

HOW TO VOTE

Wales has a combination of voting systems.On Thursday, May 6, you will have two ballot papers for the Senedd. One for your constituency, the other for your region.X in the box against your candidate for the constituency.X in the box for the party you want on the regional list.Forty constituency seats, with the same boundaries as the Westminster election constituencies, elect one member each through first past the post.
The winners of constituency seats don’t need most of the votes, only one more than the candidate in second place.
Twenty further Members of the Senedd are elected on a regional list system.
Wales is divided into five regions, each of which returns four Senedd members.The regions are: Mid & West Wales; North Wales; South Wales Central; South Wales East; South Wales West.
The parties prepare a list of candidates in their own order of preference.
The system supposedly balances the risk of a one-party state by balancing constituency success against votes cast for parties.

THE REGIONAL LIST

If a party is electorally successful in the constituency vote, it starts with a handicap in the regional count.

The formula is complex, but it basically divides the total number of regional votes by one plus the number of constituencies won. Successive rounds of counting then divide the regional vote by one plus the number of constituencies plus any regional seat won in the preceding round.

After four rounds of counting, you have four Senedd Members for the region.

Labour had two regional seats in Mid and West Wales after the 2016 election only because it performed dismally in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies. 

If the Labour vote collapses in Mid and West Wales, after this election it might return only one MS to Cardiff. In that case, the lucky winner would be Eluned Morgan.

Ironically, if Plaid Cymru wins Llanelli it will almost certainly lose its regional seat – unless other parties’ regional vote falls and Plaid’s significantly increases.

The Liberal Democrats held one seat in Mid and West Wales last time out, Brecon and Radnor. That success cost William Powell (number one on the candidate list for the LibDems in 2016) a seat. The Liberal Democrats were in poll position for a second seat after the regional votes were counted.

However, in the final round of counting, UKIP’s abject failure in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies combined with regional votes from Pembrokeshire gifted Cardiff Bay with Neil Hamilton’s contrarian presence.

That fact underlines the regional votes’ importance.

FIRST TIME VOTERS

The unknown in this election is the number of first-time voters since the franchise’s expansion to sixteen and seventeen-year-olds. Younger voters tend to be less tribal and more single-issue driven.

If young voters turn out in numbers, there could be a significant swing towards parties that address issues of importance to them in a way that appeals to younger voters. 

The likely beneficiaries would be parties closely connected to environmental issues – or at least those who claim to be.

At this point, young voter turnout could be disappointingly low. The last school year was meant to educate prospective young voters about the coming election. Thanks to the pandemic, that fell by the wayside.

In the future, Civics’ presence in the school curriculum is vital. Schools must give students an understanding of how government works, the importance of democracy and citizens’ duty to engage with it.

WHERE WILL UKIP VOTES GO?

The second question is where UKIP’s votes will end up. The Party’s membership, support, and electoral profile have withered along with its momentary political relevance. 

Although Pembrokeshire might again buck the regional trend, it’s unlikely UKIP will cross the threshold to get a seat in Mid and West Wales.

Abolish the Assembly (sic.) superficially appears the most attractive party for those who backed UKIP on the regional list last time out. However, the longer the campaign has gone on, the more Abolish has faded. An ITV interview with its leader, Richard Suchorzewski, was truly cringe-inducing.

After saying he respected Wales as a country, Mr Suchorzewski didn’t have an answer when asked to name another country without a parliament.

It was embarrassing to watch and, whether you feel Wales needs/deserves a separate Parliament or not, dire.

With Andrew RT Davies in charge, the Conservatives have burnished their ‘BluKip’ credentials. However, their campaign is endangered by the impression that a Welsh Conservative government would be operated from Westminster and not Wales, with Simon Hart as de facto Governor-General. 

It’s a tricky line for the Conservatives to tread. However, if the Conservatives pick up UKIP votes, as well as get their existing regional voter base to turn out -as they did in December 2019 – Tomos Dafydd could pick up a Mid and West regional seat for the Party.

VOTING IS WHAT COUNTS

There are plenty of opportunities to vote on the regional and constituency lists to register what’s called ‘a protest vote’.

Protesting in silence on election day by not voting and complaining for the next five years is an empty and futile gesture.

It’s objectively more important TO vote than HOW you vote.

Voting is what counts.

Nothing else matters in an election.

It’s a few minutes out of your lives and can change Wales.

News

Pembrokeshire County Council group to review ‘climate emergency’

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A CALL for a group to review Pembrokeshire County Council’s decision to declare a climate emergency some six years ago has been backed by councillors.

In May 2019, the council declare a climate emergency following a notice of motion by Cllr Joshua Beynon calling on the authority to back the global consensus that climate change poses a risk to the well-being of future generations.

He had urged county councillors to back a motion to take “bold, decisive action” to fight “truly, catastrophic” climate change.

He called on the council to commit to becoming a zero-carbon local authority by 2030.

At the July meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council, a notice of motion by Cllr Mike Stoddart called for the establishment of a working group to review the decision made by the council to declare a climate change emergency.

Cllr Stoddart’s motion said: “Given the turbulence on the global financial markets; the parlous state of the UK’s public finances; Pembrokeshire County Council’s projected funding gap; and the government’s softening of its policies on the switch to EV vehicles and heat pumps, this council establishes a seven person, politically balanced working group to review the authority’s decision to declare a climate emergency at its meeting on May 9, 2019.

“The working group will be asked to: (a) examine the effect of the emergency declaration on the level of council tax in Pembrokeshire and particularly the extent to which any such increases militate against the authority’s anti-poverty policies.

“(b) The cost of decarbonising the council’s housing stock and the effect this has had on the authority’s ability to finance the building of new housing.

“(c) The extent to which the council’s decarbonisation programme has contributed to a reduction of the risk of runaway global temperature increases, and (d) any other effects that the working group considers may have adversely impacted the wellbeing of the residents of Pembrokeshire.”

Cllr Stoddart’s notice of motion was previously supported at the June meeting of the council’s corporate overview and scrutiny committee, with a recommendation to full council in July meeting, to reinstate the Net Zero Working Group to review the contents of the notice of motion and, subject to the outcome of this review, review the future delivery of the Net Zero Action Plan.

Cllr Stoddart’s call was backed by Cllr Steve Alderman, and Cllr Rhys Jordan, who said: “I fully support this, it couldn’t come sooner; around England and Wales councils are looking at this, there’s been a huge push for a ‘net zero’ agenda at any cost, I don’t think we’re in a position to drive that.”

Cllr Aaron Carey said: “We’ve set ourselves some lofty goals, but we haven’t got the money to back it up.”

Members overwhelmingly agreed to back the June committee recommendations.

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Climate

Newgale road scheme proposal report expected by autumn

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A FULL report on Pembrokeshire council proposals for a £40m-plus road realignment scheme at flood-hit Newgale before a formal planning application is made is expected to be completed by the autumn.

Newgale was hit hard by flooding following storms in early 2014 storms, and later by Storm Dennis in 2020.

In 2014 it even saw a visit by the-then Prime Minister David Cameron following the storms.

A public consultation – through agent AtkinsRéalis – was launched earlier this year ahead of a formal council application to Pembrokeshire Coast National Park for Phase 1 of the Newgale Coastal Adaptation Project, which would see the development of a new inland section of road with bridge over Brandy Brook some 2.3km inland, to replace the coastal section of A487 at Newgale that will be closed.

Varied claims have been made about the cost of this scheme, from £20m upwards, some even saying it could cost as much as £60m, with millions spent on consultation fees to date.

An alternative, cheaper, scheme has been proposed by STUN – Stand Up for Newgale, proposing a section of the shingle bank at Newgale be realigned 10-12 metres seaward leaving an over-wash barrier between it and the A487 to capture any pebbles and sea water.

In a question, on behalf of Solva Community Council, heard at the July 17 meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council, community council chair Gareth Chapman said STUN’s proposal “appears to be an under £1m proposal with up to 85 years’ lifespan compared to the conservative £40m-plus estimate for the PCC proposal”.

The question added: “PCC’s proposal is to counter for road closures that rarely happen and, even then, require little expense to restore the pebble bank. It should also be remembered that on several occasions, flooding at Newgale occurs because the river outlet is blocked preventing water from the valley escaping and not as a result of a high tide or storm.

“It is acknowledged that climate change and coastal issues at Newgale may eventually in many years force a change in the highway arrangements at Newgale but it is felt that all efforts should be made to retain the character of the village and iconic views for as long as possible.”

It also asked for the council to “commit to thoroughly examining the alternative proposal,” and to “fully take on board the overwhelming public opinion regarding the future of Newgale”.

Responding, Cabinet Member for Residents’ Services Cllr Rhys Sinnett said a full presentation had been given to the local community council earlier this month, adding a number of options had been considered in 2016 and 2017 which were “ruled out at that stage for a number of reasons” prior to the scheme now mooted.

He told members the council had undertaken “extensive consultation which has all fed into the development of the scheme,” with a full report expected before the autumn prior to a formal planning application.

“Any coastal protection scheme, we believe, would be a multi-million-pound scheme, certainly in excess of the £1m from STUN,” said Cllr Sinnett, adding those proposals would “only delay the issue for a short period of time, if at all.”

He told members a response to the STUN proposals would be included as part of the full pre-application consultation responses, with council representatives agreeing to meet with STUN.

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Cymraeg

Call for more support for rural areas of Pembrokeshire

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A CALL to protect Pembrokeshire rural communities, “to ensure no part of our county is forgotten”, was heard by councillors.

At the July 17 meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council, members heard a notice of motion submitted by Cllr Delme Harries, Bro Gwuan county councillor and vice-chair of council, calling for a working group for supporting rural areas.

Cllr Harries’ motion said: “It is increasingly evident that while significant effort and investment has been directed toward revitalising our towns, many of our rural areas are being left behind.

“These communities are the backbone of our agricultural economy, custodians of our landscape, and home to vital heritage and culture and the Welsh language. It is time we restore balance and give our rural communities the attention, voice, and opportunities they deserve.

“To ensure that no part of our county is forgotten, I propose that we establish a dedicated cross-chamber working party focused on reigniting our rural areas — supporting rural enterprise, connectivity, housing, access to essential services and how we can help young people to live and work locally.”

Members agreed the notice be sent to the council’s services overview and scrutiny committee for discussion, the call potentially returning to a future meeting.

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