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Politics

Pembrokeshire heads to the polls

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THE ELECTIONS to the Welsh Parliament/Senedd Cymru take place today, Thursday (May 6).

Over the last few weeks, we’ve published a guide to the manifestos of each of Wales’ principal parties.

Next today is the crunch and after that comes the business of forming a government.

But first, voting.

HOW TO VOTE

Wales has a combination of voting systems.On Thursday, May 6, you will have two ballot papers for the Senedd. One for your constituency, the other for your region.X in the box against your candidate for the constituency.X in the box for the party you want on the regional list.Forty constituency seats, with the same boundaries as the Westminster election constituencies, elect one member each through first past the post.
The winners of constituency seats don’t need most of the votes, only one more than the candidate in second place.
Twenty further Members of the Senedd are elected on a regional list system.
Wales is divided into five regions, each of which returns four Senedd members.The regions are: Mid & West Wales; North Wales; South Wales Central; South Wales East; South Wales West.
The parties prepare a list of candidates in their own order of preference.
The system supposedly balances the risk of a one-party state by balancing constituency success against votes cast for parties.

THE REGIONAL LIST

If a party is electorally successful in the constituency vote, it starts with a handicap in the regional count.

The formula is complex, but it basically divides the total number of regional votes by one plus the number of constituencies won. Successive rounds of counting then divide the regional vote by one plus the number of constituencies plus any regional seat won in the preceding round.

After four rounds of counting, you have four Senedd Members for the region.

Labour had two regional seats in Mid and West Wales after the 2016 election only because it performed dismally in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies. 

If the Labour vote collapses in Mid and West Wales, after this election it might return only one MS to Cardiff. In that case, the lucky winner would be Eluned Morgan.

Ironically, if Plaid Cymru wins Llanelli it will almost certainly lose its regional seat – unless other parties’ regional vote falls and Plaid’s significantly increases.

The Liberal Democrats held one seat in Mid and West Wales last time out, Brecon and Radnor. That success cost William Powell (number one on the candidate list for the LibDems in 2016) a seat. The Liberal Democrats were in poll position for a second seat after the regional votes were counted.

However, in the final round of counting, UKIP’s abject failure in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies combined with regional votes from Pembrokeshire gifted Cardiff Bay with Neil Hamilton’s contrarian presence.

That fact underlines the regional votes’ importance.

FIRST TIME VOTERS

The unknown in this election is the number of first-time voters since the franchise’s expansion to sixteen and seventeen-year-olds. Younger voters tend to be less tribal and more single-issue driven.

If young voters turn out in numbers, there could be a significant swing towards parties that address issues of importance to them in a way that appeals to younger voters. 

The likely beneficiaries would be parties closely connected to environmental issues – or at least those who claim to be.

At this point, young voter turnout could be disappointingly low. The last school year was meant to educate prospective young voters about the coming election. Thanks to the pandemic, that fell by the wayside.

In the future, Civics’ presence in the school curriculum is vital. Schools must give students an understanding of how government works, the importance of democracy and citizens’ duty to engage with it.

WHERE WILL UKIP VOTES GO?

The second question is where UKIP’s votes will end up. The Party’s membership, support, and electoral profile have withered along with its momentary political relevance. 

Although Pembrokeshire might again buck the regional trend, it’s unlikely UKIP will cross the threshold to get a seat in Mid and West Wales.

Abolish the Assembly (sic.) superficially appears the most attractive party for those who backed UKIP on the regional list last time out. However, the longer the campaign has gone on, the more Abolish has faded. An ITV interview with its leader, Richard Suchorzewski, was truly cringe-inducing.

After saying he respected Wales as a country, Mr Suchorzewski didn’t have an answer when asked to name another country without a parliament.

It was embarrassing to watch and, whether you feel Wales needs/deserves a separate Parliament or not, dire.

With Andrew RT Davies in charge, the Conservatives have burnished their ‘BluKip’ credentials. However, their campaign is endangered by the impression that a Welsh Conservative government would be operated from Westminster and not Wales, with Simon Hart as de facto Governor-General. 

It’s a tricky line for the Conservatives to tread. However, if the Conservatives pick up UKIP votes, as well as get their existing regional voter base to turn out -as they did in December 2019 – Tomos Dafydd could pick up a Mid and West regional seat for the Party.

VOTING IS WHAT COUNTS

There are plenty of opportunities to vote on the regional and constituency lists to register what’s called ‘a protest vote’.

Protesting in silence on election day by not voting and complaining for the next five years is an empty and futile gesture.

It’s objectively more important TO vote than HOW you vote.

Voting is what counts.

Nothing else matters in an election.

It’s a few minutes out of your lives and can change Wales.

News

Pembrokeshire town set to be rejuvenated as £12m investment approved

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SENIOR Pembrokeshire councillors have backed a near-£12m ‘levelling up’ project to rejuvenate parts of Pembroke, with £1.2m of council funds.

At the January 13 meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council’s Cabinet members backed the signing of a memorandum of understanding for a UK Government Levelling Up Fund 3 award for the £11,715,141 Pembroke town Westgate to Eastgate project.

The project attracted a grant award of £10,543,627, with a commitment of £1,171,514 match-funding from the council to comply with the grant offer requirements, some 10 per cent.

Applications for ‘levelling-up’ funding for this part of Pembroke have a history going back several years, with a June 2022 bid for the second round of levelling up funding unsuccessful; a third-round bid based on an amended version of that scheme getting the thumbs-up last year.

The project delivery period is planned to run from April 2025 until March 2028, consisting of three works packages, Cabinet members heard in a presentation by Deputy Leader Cllr Paul Miller.

The three planned works packages consist of, firstly, connecting The Commons to Westgate and Main Street, including an improved pedestrian connection into the town centre running from Common Road, via the Parade to Long Entry and exiting onto Westgate Hill and public realm improvements, improved lighting and public art.

The second package, Eastgate, is described as “both the principal investment and the critical path to the overall programme,” with the works seeing “selective demolition and making good to the elements of the school building, which encroach, onto [a] projected highway corridor, and for construction new retaining walls as necessary,” along with “An enabling contract to ready East End School for development to shell and core, readied for development for currently undetermined use”.

The third work  package, ‘Connecting Townscape, Landscape and Soundscape’ includes: “Pembroke’s network of public realm and green infrastructure will be enhanced along Main Street and connect through underused route ways to its flanking green space of The Commons and the Upper and Lower Mill Pond”.

Cllr Miller warned that inflationary pressures since the original proposal would lead to some adaptions to the scheme, the value of the funding being less than it was in 2022.

Seconding Cllr Miller’s proposal the scheme be backed, Leader Cllr Jon Harvey, county councillor for the Pembroke St Mary North ward, said: “I’m extremely pleased about the levelling-up money coming into this town; Pembroke is a wonderful town, but it is underperforming, with businesses struggling.”

He stressed a need for collaborative work on the project: “Community ‘buy-in’ is very important, we need to work closely with the community and the town.”

Members backed a recommendation to approve the scheme and the match-funding element, along with the signing of the memorandum.

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Health

Autism and ADHD waiting lists ‘could triple in two years’

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THE NUMBER of children waiting for an autism or ADHD assessment in Wales could nearly triple to 61,000 over the next two years, a committee heard.

Sarah Murphy, Wales’ mental health minister, told the Senedd’s children’s committee that 20,770 children were waiting for a neurodevelopmental assessment in September 2024.

She said: “The assessment we’ve got from the NHS Executive is that we’re going to see, by March 2027, between 41,000 to 61,000 people waiting for these assessments.”

By comparison, according to freedom of information (FoI) requests, around 4,100 children were awaiting an ADHD or autism assessment in September 2021.

Giving evidence on January 9, Ms Murphy, who is responsible for neurodevelopmental conditions, learning disability, and dementia, pointed to an extra £3m for health boards.

Ms Murphy said: “It will benefit the children and young people who have been waiting the longest and the money then is dependent on the delivery.”

Quizzed by Vaughan Gething, the former First Minister who first brought her into government in May, she suggested the surge in demand was down to increasing awareness.

Labour MS Vaughan Gething
Labour MS Vaughan Gething

She added: “That assessment means a lot to children, young people and their families. I was speaking to the National Autistic Society yesterday and they said ‘we’ve raised so much awareness but now we need to ride that wave towards understanding and acceptance’.”

The Conservatives’ Joel James was alarmed to hear waiting lists could almost triple in two years, asking how ministers will intervene to ensure sustainable services.

Ms Murphy replied: “We’ve done a national accelerated design event which was really good. It was over a couple of days: it brought together … everybody who has a part to play in this.

“Because we all recognise that this cannot continue – we have to change.”

Asked whether health boards could expect more funding to drive down waiting lists in future, she said: “No. To be very clear, the £3m is one-off funding.”

Ms Murphy explained health boards are bringing in additional capacity from the private sector in an effort to meet demand but cautioned that this is unsustainable.

The Welsh Government has a target of 80% of children and young people receiving an assessment in 26 weeks, twice as long as the 13 weeks recommended by NICE guidelines.

Yet, while data on waiting times is not routinely published unlike in England, it is thought the 80% target has not been met Wales-wide since it was introduced nearly a decade ago.

Welsh ministers have no corresponding target for adult assessments.

Sixty-seven per cent of children waited at least 26 weeks and 45% waited for more than a year in June 2023, according to the response to another FoI request.

Cwm Taf Morgannwg and Betsi Cadwaladr university health boards currently warn of waiting lists of two and three years, respectively.

Albert Heaney, the chief social care officer for Wales, said health boards are confident an extra 2,000 assessments will be delivered by the end of March.

He said: “Importantly, the money is on condition that they are delivered. It’s coming the other way around on this occasion … it’s not money that’s given out, the money is on delivery.”

Mr Heaney added: “I’m really pleased that there’s a lot of co-production, there’s lived experience, there’s a real energy around this because I think there’s recognition … that it can’t just be about focusing on assessment.”

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Community

54 new Saundersfoot homes to welcome first owners by spring

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A CALL to amend plans for a new estate of 54 homes in a south Pembrokeshire seaside village to allow the first of them to be occupied unhindered by plant vehicles while works continue has been submitted.

Back in September 2023, the application for the estate, which includes a mix of 19 affordable properties, on land north of Whitlow, Saundersfoot, was approved by Pembrokeshire Coast National Park planners.

No objection to the plans was received by local community council Saundersfoot, other than concerns regarding the possibility of properties being sold as second homes, but several letters of objection were received, raising concerns including the potential for the new dwellings to become holiday lets, loss of privacy to neighbouring properties, loss of views, and the impact on existing property values.

The applicants are now seeking to amend two of the long string of conditions which accompanied approval to improve access for new home-owners while they build the estate by extending the time allowed for a construction vehicle access route, a condition of which was it would be ‘stopped up’ when the site reached a certain size.

The applicants say the proposed main access is now in place, and four detached dwelling are “at an advanced stage of construction,” and “It is anticipated that the first occupation on the site will take place in the forthcoming two months”.

The application adds: “Those new residents will of course be provided with uninterrupted access via the new estate road arrangements onto Narberth Road. The existing, northern access remains in place at this time and has served the scheme well in providing access for all construction vehicles,” adding: “The applicants wish to continue this arrangement, which will ensure that construction traffic and operatives do not have to use the newly formed main access and estate road, and thus potentially come into conflict with new residents on this first phase of development and also the next subsequent phase which will involve the construction of the affordable units on the site for the local registered social landlord.”

It stresses: “It should also be pointed out that the existing access will only be used by construction traffic, and at no time by new occupier traffic.”

The amendment will be considered by park planners at a later date.

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