ELUNED MORGAN LOSES SEAT AS OLD CERTAINTIES ARE SWEPT AWAY

THE VOTERS of Wales have delivered one of the most dramatic results in the history of devolution, sweeping Labour from power and handing Plaid Cymru a clear path towards forming the next Welsh Government.

After more than a quarter of a century of Labour dominance in Cardiff Bay, the party has been reduced to just nine seats in the Senedd, with its support collapsing across its traditional heartlands.

The final seat tally was:

• Plaid Cymru – 43
• Reform UK – 34
• Labour – 9
• Conservatives – 7
• Greens – 2
• Liberal Democrats – 1

Plaid Cymru is now by far the largest party in the new Welsh Parliament and is expected to seek to form the next government, either as a minority administration or with support from other parties.

Reform UK, which had been tipped to make major gains, finished in second place with 34 seats, an extraordinary breakthrough which places it ahead of Labour and the Conservatives.

But while Reform’s rise is one of the major stories of the election, the biggest political earthquake is Labour’s near-total collapse.

The party, which has led every Welsh Government since devolution began, was gutted in the Valleys, south-east Wales, rural Wales and key urban centres.

First Minister Eluned Morgan’s defeat in Ceredigion Penfro will dominate the headlines. Her loss marks a stunning personal and political blow, with Labour failing to win a seat in the new six-member constituency.

In the same constituency, Conservative Paul Davies was returned, while fellow Conservative Samuel Kurtz narrowly missed out. Kurtz later issued an emotional statement saying it had been an “absolute honour and pleasure” to serve as a Member of the Senedd.

He wrote: “That’s the way the cookie crumbles, folks.

“What an absolute honour and pleasure it has been to serve as your Member of the Senedd.”

He said he was pleased Paul Davies had been re-elected, adding: “I owe him so much, and I wouldn’t have been able to do this job without his support and guidance.”

Kurtz thanked his family, staff and supporters, saying he had loved “every single second” of the job.

He added: “So for now, it’s so long. But I don’t think it’s farewell.”

Labour’s humiliation was not confined to west Wales.

Senior backbencher Alun Davies lost his seat after twenty years in the Welsh Parliament, while Huw Irranca-Davies, Eluned Morgan’s Deputy, clung on in sixth place in Afan Ogwr Rhondda.

Former Labour minister Sarah Murphy also only just survived in Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg.

In Carmarthenshire, Labour failed to return a single representative, with Plaid Cymru and Reform splitting the seats between them.

In Swansea Gower, Mike Hedges was the only Labour MS to survive, while Plaid took three seats and Reform claimed the remainder.

Ken Skates also clung on to the sixth seat in Flint Wrexham, where Reform and Plaid both took two seats.

The scale of Labour’s defeat was underlined by its failure to win a single seat in Caerffili and Blaenau Gwent, and by its reduction to two seats in Cardiff, where Plaid Cymru now has more MSs than it has ever had city councillors.

Labour returned just one candidate in Pontypridd and Newport, and only two in Torfaen, once regarded as a nailed-on Labour area.

Reform’s strongest gains came in the Valleys and south-east Wales, but the party also cut into Conservative support across rural, mid and north Wales.

The Conservatives finished on seven seats, a result which leaves them badly squeezed between Reform on one side and Plaid Cymru on the other.

The Greens won two seats, both in Cardiff constituencies. While the result gives the party its first real Senedd breakthrough, it falls well short of the more optimistic projections during the campaign.

Jane Dodds remains the sole Liberal Democrat in the Welsh Parliament.

Labour’s final humiliation came in Gwynedd Maldwyn, the last seat to declare, where the party finished fifth, behind Plaid Cymru, Reform, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Plaid took four seats there, with Reform winning two.

In her concession speech, Eluned Morgan said the “wind of change” had blown across Wales.

For Labour, that wind has swept away the old certainties.

Shock result sends political shockwaves across Wales as Reform also surges in historic Senedd count

LABOUR suffered one of the worst defeats in its Welsh political history on Friday (May 8) after First Minister Eluned Morgan failed to win a seat in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency.

The dramatic result, announced following a tense count in Aberystwyth, saw Plaid Cymru emerge as the dominant force in west Wales, while Reform UK surged into second place and Labour was left without representation.

Under the new six-member proportional voting system introduced for the 2026 Senedd election, the seats were allocated as follows:

• Plaid Cymru — three seats
• Reform UK — two seats
• Welsh Conservatives — one seat
• Labour — no seats

The elected Members of the Senedd for Ceredigion Penfro are:

• Elin Jones (Plaid Cymru)
• Kerry Ferguson (Plaid Cymru)
• Anna Nicholl (Plaid Cymru)
• Susan Claire Archibald (Reform UK)
• Paul Marr (Reform UK)
• Paul Windsor Davies (Welsh Conservatives)

The result marks a devastating blow for Labour, which has governed Wales continuously since devolution began in 1999. The party’s top candidate in the constituency was sitting First Minister Eluned Morgan, but Labour’s vote collapsed across both Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion.

Plaid Cymru topped the poll with 31,943 votes, comfortably ahead of Reform UK on 23,003.

The Conservatives secured 14,789 votes and held on to representation through former Preseli Pembrokeshire MS Paul Davies.

Labour trailed badly on just 6,495 votes.

The full vote breakdown was:

• Plaid Cymru — 31,943
• Reform UK — 23,003
• Welsh Conservatives — 14,789
• Welsh Labour — 6,495
• Wales Green Party — 6,324
• Welsh Liberal Democrats — 4,613
• Gwlad — 802
• Heritage Party — 442
• Aaron Carey (Independent) — 368
• George Alexander Chadzy (Independent) — 286
• Paul Haywood Dowson (Independent) — 88

A total of 89,402 votes were cast, with 247 rejected ballots.

Turnout was confirmed at around 57%, significantly higher than many analysts had predicted for the first election held under the new expanded Senedd system.

The result had been widely anticipated as one of the key battlegrounds of the election, with journalists from across Wales and national broadcasters gathering at the count amid growing speculation that the First Minister could lose her seat.

As counting progressed through the afternoon, it became increasingly clear Labour was heading for disaster in the constituency, with Plaid performing strongly in Ceredigion while Reform UK made major gains across Pembrokeshire.

The new Ceredigion Penfro “super constituency” combines the whole of Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion under the new 96-member Senedd system, replacing the previous Westminster-style constituencies.

The result is likely to intensify questions over Labour’s future direction in Wales and represents a major breakthrough for Reform UK in west Wales politics.

Plaid Cymru supporters celebrated loudly as the declaration was read out, while Labour activists left the hall visibly stunned.

The defeat of a sitting First Minister in her own electoral region is expected to send shockwaves through Welsh politics for days to come.

LABOUR FACES HISTORIC DEFEAT AS COUNTING CONTINUES ACROSS WALES

LABOUR’S Deputy Leader in Wales has effectively conceded the Senedd election, saying the party will “not form the next government” as counting continued across the country.

Huw Irranca-Davies, Eluned Morgan’s Deputy First Minister and Rural Affairs Minister, made the candid admission on BBC Wales on Friday (May 8), in what will be seen as one of the most dramatic moments in modern Welsh political history.

He said the result was “not the end” for Welsh Labour, but accepted that the party now faced a major period of reflection over what went wrong, why its campaign failed to cut through, and how it had lost the confidence of so many Welsh voters.

Mr Irranca-Davies also said it appeared “likely” that Eluned Morgan would not return to the Senedd as a member for the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency.

If confirmed, that result would be a devastating blow for Labour and would leave the party without its First Minister in the new Welsh Parliament.

Labour MSs are expected to meet on Saturday to discuss their changed position and decide their next steps as a group.

Mr Irranca-Davies avoided a direct answer when asked whether he would seek to lead Labour in the Senedd if Baroness Morgan loses her seat.

He is widely regarded as a possible contender for the post of Presiding Officer if Labour’s final results are as poor as early indications suggest.

Counting began on Friday morning after voters went to the polls on Thursday (May 7) in the first Senedd election held under the new electoral system.

The old arrangement of constituency MSs and regional list members has been replaced by sixteen larger “super constituencies”, each electing six members.

The system uses the d’Hondt formula, which allocates seats proportionally according to party vote totals.

Once all votes are counted, each party’s total is divided by the number of seats it has already won, plus one. The highest remaining total wins the next seat, and the calculation is repeated until all six seats are filled.

The process has drawn criticism from some voters and commentators, who say it is difficult to understand.

Former Labour minister Harriet Harman also criticised the Welsh voting system this week, describing it as overly complicated.

However, the method was first chosen by Tony Blair’s Labour Government ahead of the first Senedd election in 1999. Welsh Labour also rejected alternatives, including the Single Transferable Vote, when the new system was designed.

Critics of the reforms say the counting method itself has received too much attention, while the more serious change has been the creation of vast multi-member constituencies, which have weakened the direct link between voters and individual elected representatives.

Labour has dominated Welsh politics for more than a century.

At every General Election since 1922, Labour has been the largest party in Wales in terms of seats won. Since devolution began in 1999, it has also been the largest party in the Senedd and has led every Welsh Government.

As recently as June 2024, Labour won 27 of Wales’s 32 Westminster seats.

But that record appeared to count for little as voters went to the polls this week, with early briefings suggesting Labour had suffered serious damage in both its traditional heartlands and in West Wales.

As polls closed on Thursday night, Labour figures were already briefing broadcasters about the scale of the reverse.

One report suggested the party’s performance in the South Wales Valleys had been disastrous, while the BBC later reported that a senior Labour source had described results in West Wales as “bloody” and “challenging”.

At this stage, however, the full picture remains unclear.

It is also possible that Labour figures have deliberately played down expectations, in the hope of presenting anything short of total collapse as a better result than feared.

If the opinion polls and early indications prove accurate, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK could emerge as the largest forces in the next Welsh Parliament.

Such a result would represent a political earthquake in Wales and could bring an end to Labour’s unbroken control of devolved government.

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