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First Minister warns UK could break up as Starmer faces pressure ahead of elections

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Eluned Morgan says there is a “real possibility” the Union could fracture as Labour braces for losses and Prime Minister’s leadership comes under scrutiny

FIRST MINISTER Eluned Morgan has issued a stark warning that the United Kingdom could be at risk of breaking up, as Labour braces for political pressure ahead of the 7 May elections across Wales, Scotland and English councils.

Morgan made the comments during an appearance on Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, where she was asked about recent remarks by Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney, who suggested the May elections could prove decisive for Sir Keir Starmer if Labour performs badly.

When asked whether she agreed that the vote could be the “end of the road” for the Prime Minister, Morgan said that would ultimately be “a decision for the parliamentary group,” but added she believed pressure would be inevitable if Labour suffers heavy losses.

Her intervention comes as Labour faces a difficult political landscape in Wales, where the party has been in government in some form since the creation of the Senedd in 1999. Recent polling has suggested Welsh Labour support has fallen sharply, with rival parties gaining ground ahead of what could be a historic contest.

Morgan argued that the stakes extend beyond party politics, warning that the consequences of the May elections could reach into the future of the UK itself. Asked directly whether the country could fracture if nationalist leaders were to control devolved institutions, she said she believed there was a “real possibility” of that, and urged people to recognise it as a genuine risk rather than a remote scenario.

She pointed to the wider constitutional picture, with Northern Ireland already led by Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill as First Minister in the power-sharing executive, and Scotland’s SNP continuing to press its case for independence. Morgan suggested that if nationalist parties were to secure or strengthen their position in devolved governments, the political centre of gravity in the UK could shift further — increasing pressure on Westminster and any Prime Minister struggling with authority after a poor set of election results.

The Welsh First Minister’s comments were made as she continues to outline Welsh Labour’s policy priorities ahead of the campaign, including a proposal to boost pay for school support staff such as teaching assistants, cooks, cleaners and caretakers. The policy, she has said, is intended to improve conditions for key workers who keep schools running and tackle in-work poverty — though opponents argue that public spending promises must be matched by clear long-term funding plans.

With voting day now approaching, Morgan’s warning sets a sharper tone for the election campaign — linking devolved politics to the stability of the Union, and signalling that Labour expects the May results to be treated as a major test of Starmer’s authority and political direction.

 

Crime

New national police force planned in biggest shake-up for generations

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Ministers promise “British FBI” to take on terrorism, fraud and organised crime as forces face new performance targets and intervention powers

A NEW national police force for England and Wales is to be created under plans described by ministers as the biggest structural change to policing in generations.

The Home Office has confirmed that a National Police Service will be established to bring together national and cross-border crime-fighting functions currently split across several organisations. The government says the move will strengthen the response to terrorism, serious organised crime and large-scale fraud, while freeing local forces to focus on neighbourhood policing and the offences that most affect public confidence.

The proposals were announced over the past two days as part of a wider “policing reset” to be set out in a Home Office white paper due on Monday.

What is being created

Under the plan, a National Police Service would be formed to take on work that regularly spans force boundaries, including counter-terrorism policing, serious organised crime and complex fraud investigations.

Ministers have indicated the new body would assume responsibilities currently spread across the National Crime Agency, Counter Terrorism Policing (which is led nationally through the Metropolitan Police), and regional structures that support forces with major investigations.

A National Police Commissioner would be appointed as the most senior police leader in the country, overseeing the new service and providing a single point of command for national threats.

Why the government says change is needed

The Home Office argues that crime has changed faster than policing structures have kept up.

Ministers say criminals operate across borders and online, and that cyber-enabled fraud and organised crime do not respect force areas. They contend that asking 43 separate forces to maintain the same level of specialist capability is inefficient and, in some areas, no longer realistic in the face of recruitment pressures and rising demand.

The government’s central claim is that the current system pulls local forces into complex national work, leaving fewer officers available for visible policing and “everyday” crime such as shoplifting, antisocial behaviour, vehicle crime and phone theft.

How it would work in practice

The National Police Service would be introduced in stages during a transition period, rather than via an overnight switch.

The government has stressed that the new service would still rely on local policing for intelligence and community engagement, and that neighbourhood teams will remain central to preventing extremism, disrupting organised crime and safeguarding vulnerable people.

Technology and capability

One of the most significant shifts under the plan is national control over specialist technology and procurement.

Ministers say the new structure will allow faster rollout of tools and systems across all forces, including better data sharing and modern investigative capabilities. The government has also indicated it wants to expand live facial recognition and other digital policing technologies more widely, arguing it can help identify suspects and protect the public.

Critics have already signalled that technology will be a major battleground, with concerns expected over privacy safeguards, oversight, and how such tools are governed and deployed.

Force performance ‘dashboard’ and intervention powers

Alongside the creation of the National Police Service, the Home Office has also announced tougher national oversight of local forces.

Plans published on Friday include a public performance “dashboard”, with forces rated on measures such as 999 response times, victim satisfaction and public confidence. Poorly performing forces would be “named and shamed”, and ministers want stronger powers for the Home Office to intervene.

Those intervention options include sending in specialist support teams and, in serious cases, taking steps to remove chief constables judged to be failing. Police leaders have warned that target-driven regimes can create perverse incentives, but ministers insist that stronger accountability is necessary to raise standards.

Possible mergers and fewer forces

The government has also signalled support for further consolidation of police forces in England and Wales, potentially reducing the number of forces into larger regional units.

While no definitive map has been published, the direction of travel is towards fewer, bigger forces, with the National Police Service sitting above them to handle national threats and cross-border crime.

Professional standards and a proposed ‘licence to practise’

Another element announced alongside the structural changes is a professional standards reform package, including proposals for a mandatory “licence to practise” for officers in England and Wales.

Ministers say this would ensure continuing competence and help rebuild public trust after high-profile misconduct cases in recent years. The Police Federation and other staff representatives have raised concerns about workload pressures and the practicalities of introducing new requirements without significant investment in training and support.

Political reaction and policing response

Labour has presented the plan as a modernisation project to rebuild policing capability and restore confidence in the criminal justice system.

Senior policing bodies have welcomed the idea of stronger national coordination for modern threats, while stressing that the success of any national body will depend on preserving strong links with local forces and neighbourhood policing.

Opposition parties are expected to press ministers on costs, governance, civil liberties issues around technology, and whether centralisation risks weakening local accountability.

What happens next

The Home Office white paper, expected on Monday, is due to provide further detail on the structure of the National Police Service, the role and powers of the National Police Commissioner, the transition timetable, and the legislative changes required to bring the reforms into force.

The scale of the plans means the changes are likely to take years to complete, with ministers facing scrutiny over whether the overhaul can improve the fight against fraud, terrorism and organised crime while also delivering the promised improvements to visible policing and the “everyday” crimes that shape public confidence.

 

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Crime

Caldey Abbey investigation: campaigner to speak live tonight on YouTube

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Safeguarding failures and calls for accountability set to be discussed on Richie & Rogue at 8:00pm

A PEMBROKESHIRE campaigner will appear live on YouTube tonight (Sunday, January 25) to discuss the ongoing Caldey Abbey investigation and the findings of an independent review into historic abuse allegations linked to Caldey Island.

Andrew, from JAOC Investigations, is due to join the Richie & Rogue show at 8:00pm. He said the conversation will focus on safeguarding, accountability and transparency, and will also look ahead to what happens next.

The Caldey Abbey case has attracted widespread attention following the publication of an independent review in late 2024. The report examined non-recent allegations involving the island’s monastic community and the wider environment around Caldey, setting out concerns about how safeguarding issues were handled over a long period.

Campaigners have argued that independent scrutiny remains necessary to ensure safeguarding arrangements are robust, victims and survivors are heard, and lessons are acted on.

In an email circulated ahead of the broadcast, Andrew said tonight’s live discussion would cover what the independent review uncovered, what he described as outstanding “red-rated” safeguarding failures, and why he believes external oversight is essential. He said the programme would also look at what survivors still need and the next steps, including ongoing matters he says are under investigation.

The Richie & Rogue YouTube show goes live at 8:00pm tonight (Sunday, January 25). Viewers can find it by searching “Richie & Rogue” on YouTube and looking for the Caldey Abbey discussion on the channel’s live stream.

If you have been affected by issues raised in this story, support is available. You can contact the NSPCC helpline on 0808 800 5000 or Childline on 0800 1111.

 

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Local Government

Footpath closed after landslip above Pembroke Castle Pond

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PUBLIC WARNED TO KEEP AWAY AS BARRIERS ARE REMOVED AND COUNCIL STEPS UP SAFETY MEASURES

A FOOTPATH overlooking Pembroke Castle has been closed after a landslip above the Castle Pond left a streetlight damaged.

Pembrokeshire County Council said the slip has affected the path running around the pond, prompting safety measures and a temporary closure of part of the route.

However, the council warned that the original barriers and warning signs were removed by members of the public, leading to “stronger measures” being put in place to stop people accessing the area.

The authority said the damaged streetlight column has been made safe, with power isolated, while the landowner carries out investigations and considers repair options.

In the meantime, walkers are being diverted via Rocky Park and on to the Pembrokeshire Coast Path.

A spokesperson for the council said: “A recent landslip above the Pembroke Castle Pond footpath has resulted in a damaged streetlight which has required the closure of part of the affected footpath.

“Power to the damaged streetlight column has been isolated and the area made safe.

“Despite the closure of the path, some members of the public have removed barriers and signage.

“Therefore, stronger measures have now been put in place to prevent access to the north bank of the Castle Pond while investigations and remediation options are pursued to address the landslide by the landowner.

“Further updates will be provided as work progresses and timelines are known.”

 

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