Politics

Generation gap spells trouble for Tories

Published

5 years ago

April 15, 2019

ON MONDAY, the Conservative think-tank Onward published a report into generational voting patterns, policy priorities and political values.

The report considers why age has become the key dividing line in British politics, what has happened since the last general election, and what can be done to win over millions of younger people deserting the centre-right in considerable numbers.

The report follows a detailed 10,000 sample poll, conducted by Hanbury Strategy. It is the largest study of the generation gap since age became the key political dividing line in British politics.

Younger and older voters have always been politically different, but never by this much

In 2017, the gap between younger and older voters was 50 points larger than the post-war average since 1945 and five times higher than in 2010. It started, in 2015 before Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn became the leader of the Labour Party. This gap has grown, not narrowed, since the last General Election.

In 2017, “the tipping point age” – the median age at which a voter is more likely to vote Conservative than Labour – was 47 years old. The report establishes that, since the election, “the tipping point” has risen by 4 years to 51 years old.

The Conservative age curve is getting steeper. Among 18–24-year-olds, 14% said they would vote Conservative if there was an election today. 62% said they would vote Labour. 9% of this group said they would vote for the Liberal Democrats.

Among those over 65 years old, the opposite was true, 56% of respondents said they would vote Conservative, against 24% for Labour. The only groups with a net positive vote for Conservatives are 55–64s and voters over the age of 65.

Projecting the results of the survey forward to 2022 shows that the Conservatives face a wipeout in Wales.

If age continues to be a predictor of vote intention, the Conservatives are also in trouble in London. For example, Putney, which has a majority of just 3.3%, has 2.6 younger people for every older person. Other Conservative seats potentially affected by the demographic shift include the Cities of London and Westminster, Hendon, Chelsea and Fulham, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip (currently held by would-be PM Boris Johnson).

According to Onward, the dissonance between different age groups largely down to the Conservatives’ failure to win over younger voters. 28% of under-35s would consider voting Conservative, but fewer than 17% say they would do so if an election were held today. Onward says that this amounts to 3 million voters young Conservative considerers which could be won over but currently would not vote for the party.

Polling among the younger age group suggests that on some policies, the Conservatives could be knocking on an open door. 18-24s are most in favour (63%) of keeping more of their own money and paying less tax. However, they also favour making the economy fairer, not just bigger. Nearly two-thirds of people favour “reducing the gap between rich and poor” over “working to create faster economic growth”, with 18-24s most in favour (67%).

On immigration, there is net support for reducing immigration in every age bracket, within every ethnic group, and among Remain voters.

In terms of priorities, the environment is the third top issue for 18-24-year-old voters and younger voters.

Notably, immigration is of far lesser importance to younger voters than older ones, a reverse of the position on welfare benefits, about which older voters are far less exercised. All age groups regard the NHS and Brexit as the top two priorities.

A disconcerting gap is rising in the Conservatives’ appeal to female voters. Only 8% of 18-24-year-old women would vote Conservative today, which correlates heavily with pessimism: 56% of women think the next generation will be worse off than their own. Meanwhile, Asian voters (42%) are nearly as likely to consider voting Conservative as White voters (44%), but only half as many would do so today.

News

Fresh questions over fire that ravaged Manorbier school

Published

2 days ago

May 3, 2024

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

A senior Pembrokeshire councillor is to be quizzed on what progress has been made in recouping a £200,000 insurance excess paid by the council following the 2022 fire at a Manorbier school.

Manorbier Church in Wales VC School and its adjoining schoolhouse was severely damaged by a fire on October 11, 2022, which broke out in the school roof space.

Pupils and staff were successfully evacuated with no injuries, and a “school from school” was set up in Jameston Village Hall, after a brief period of sanctuary at the nearby Buttyland caravan site.

Pembrokeshire County Council’s insurers have previously said the fire was accidentally started while “hot works” were being carried out by contractors to renew an adjacent flat roof, but, as has previously been stressed, no liability had been accepted to date.

Councillors have previously heard the majority of costs were likely to be met from the council’s insurers, with the caveat of the unknown issue of liability and its effect on the £200,000 insurance excess.

A submitted question, by Councillor Aled Thomas, to be heard at the full council meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council on May 9, will ask Cabinet Member for Education and Welsh Language Cllr Guy Woodham “to update the chamber on what progress the Cabinet have made in recouping the £200,000 insurance excess paid following the devastating non-fault fire at Manorbier school”.

Councillors have previously been told by Cllr Woodham: “The legal issues are not straightforward but will be robustly taken forward.

“At this stage it’s still subject to legal discussion. The excess will be covered by a fund the council holds for insurance excess.”

He said that, if liability was found or accepted, the council would “pursue for the full maximum claim of the costs associated with the fire”.

Crime

Dafydd Llywelyn retains his post as our local commissioner

Published

2 days ago

May 3, 2024

Tom Sinclair

THE result of the election for the Dyfed-Powys Police and Crime Commissioner election has been declared.

Plaid’s Dafydd Llywelyn retains his role as commissioner. He has held the role since 2016.

The result of the election is as follows:

Justin Mark Griffiths (Lib Dem) 7,719
Ian Harrison 19,134 (Con)
Dafydd Llywelyn 31,323 (Plaid)
Philippa Thompson (Lab) 18,353

Before the election, Dafydd Llywelyn promised: “As your current Commissioner, operational, front-line policing has, and always will come before party politics. I have a strong track record of delivering on my promises and of listening to the communities of Dyfed Powys. I am proud of what I have achieved since 2016, but there is still so much to do.

“I am an approachable individual and I believe in listening to all members of the community in order to shape a successful police force.

“Since 2016, I have increased resources whilst also retaining the lowest council tax levels in Wales. During that time, we’ve seen:

150 more Police Officers;

150 more Police Staff;
A CCTV system that is monitored 24/7 by police staff;
A dedicated rural crime team;
A focus on county lines drug dealing to target organised crime;
Investment in Youth Offending Teams to divert young people away from crime;
A new Offender Diversionary Scheme to reduce re-offending.

If re – elected:

I will safeguard Neighbourhood Policing resources retaining a visible local policing presence;
I will invest in the Communications Centre to ensure an accessible service;
I will continue to put the victim at the heart of the service and develop a truly victim led service;
I will work with operational staff to keep local police stations open;
I will invest in a new and refreshed School Police programme to deliver early intervention and preventative work;
I will prioritise working in partnership with organisations and agencies to safeguard the most vulnerable in society.

“Your safety is my top priority. I want to ensure that the Dyfed Powys Police Force remains one of the safest places to live in Wales and England.”

News

Pembroke Power Station hydrogen fuel production hopes rise

Published

2 days ago

May 3, 2024

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

A public consultation on plans to develop a green hydrogen production facility next to Pembroke Power Station has been launched by energy company RWE Generation UK.

The technology uses the electrolysis of water to split into its constituent elements, hydrogen for fuel and power, and oxygen.

RWE, in its consultation, says: “RWE is progressing proposals to develop a green hydrogen production facility on RWE’s land adjacent to the existing Pembroke Power Station and has launched a statutory pre-application consultation to inform stakeholders and the community.

“RWE values the input of the local community and feedback will be used to inform the plans. RWE Pembroke Green Hydrogen will facilitate the generation of green hydrogen. Green hydrogen is produced from water, using energy obtained from renewable sources.

“The hydrogen can then be used to decarbonise local industrial activities in South Wales, by displacing their current fossil fuel usage. The facility would be located on RWE’s site to the west of Pembroke Power Station and would benefit from being well-screened from local communities, while being accessed via the current power station access road.”

It adds: “It is expected that hydrogen generated by this facility for use in local industry would directly result in the reduction of approximately 93,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions each year, helping to secure a more sustainable future for South Wales’ long-standing industrial heritage. This CO2 saving is the equivalent of removing 18,600 cars from the road each year.”

The 23.7ha development site proposed comprises of a 4ha main electrolyser area, a 1.5km hydrogen gas pipeline corridor, an electrical connection to a high voltage transformer all located to the west of Pembroke Power Station, and an area for connections into the Pembroke Power Station and a cable corridor for connection into the National Grid Substation.

The consultation documents say: “The proposed development is a green hydrogen electrolysis plant that will consume circa 100-110MW of electricity to produce around 2 te/hr green hydrogen gas for third-party uses unrelated to Pembroke Power Station. Including the balance of plant, the total energy consumption for the proposed development will be approximately 140MW.

“The consequent reduction in use of fossil fuels due to substitution by green hydrogen gas, and avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is a beneficial operational effect of the proposed development.”

It says development of the project is expected to take 24 months, and subject to as-yet unsubmitted full plans’ approval, could be built by early 2027.

The consultation runs to May 20.

A hydrogen fuel plant facility was given the backing of county planners last October, at the former Puma Energy site in Milford Haven.

H2 Energy Ecosystem UK Limited sought permission for the erection of an electrolysis hydrogen generation facility, and associated storage facilities and works at the Amoco Road site.