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Politics

Generation gap spells trouble for Tories

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ON MONDAY, the Conservative think-tank Onward published a report into generational voting patterns, policy priorities and political values.

The report considers why age has become the key dividing line in British politics, what has happened since the last general election, and what can be done to win over millions of younger people deserting the centre-right in considerable numbers.

The report follows a detailed 10,000 sample poll, conducted by Hanbury Strategy. It is the largest study of the generation gap since age became the key political dividing line in British politics.

Younger and older voters have always been politically different, but never by this much

In 2017, the gap between younger and older voters was 50 points larger than the post-war average since 1945 and five times higher than in 2010. It started, in 2015 before Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn became the leader of the Labour Party. This gap has grown, not narrowed, since the last General Election.

In 2017, “the tipping point age” – the median age at which a voter is more likely to vote Conservative than Labour – was 47 years old. The report establishes that, since the election, “the tipping point” has risen by 4 years to 51 years old.

The Conservative age curve is getting steeper. Among 18–24-year-olds, 14% said they would vote Conservative if there was an election today. 62% said they would vote Labour. 9% of this group said they would vote for the Liberal Democrats.

Among those over 65 years old, the opposite was true, 56% of respondents said they would vote Conservative, against 24% for Labour. The only groups with a net positive vote for Conservatives are 55–64s and voters over the age of 65.

Projecting the results of the survey forward to 2022 shows that the Conservatives face a wipeout in Wales.

If age continues to be a predictor of vote intention, the Conservatives are also in trouble in London. For example, Putney, which has a majority of just 3.3%, has 2.6 younger people for every older person. Other Conservative seats potentially affected by the demographic shift include the Cities of London and Westminster, Hendon, Chelsea and Fulham, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip (currently held by would-be PM Boris Johnson).

According to Onward, the dissonance between different age groups largely down to the Conservatives’ failure to win over younger voters. 28% of under-35s would consider voting Conservative, but fewer than 17% say they would do so if an election were held today. Onward says that this amounts to 3 million voters young Conservative considerers which could be won over but currently would not vote for the party.

Polling among the younger age group suggests that on some policies, the Conservatives could be knocking on an open door. 18-24s are most in favour (63%) of keeping more of their own money and paying less tax. However, they also favour making the economy fairer, not just bigger. Nearly two-thirds of people favour “reducing the gap between rich and poor” over “working to create faster economic growth”, with 18-24s most in favour (67%).

On immigration, there is net support for reducing immigration in every age bracket, within every ethnic group, and among Remain voters.

In terms of priorities, the environment is the third top issue for 18-24-year-old voters and younger voters.

Notably, immigration is of far lesser importance to younger voters than older ones, a reverse of the position on welfare benefits, about which older voters are far less exercised. All age groups regard the NHS and Brexit as the top two priorities.

A disconcerting gap is rising in the Conservatives’ appeal to female voters. Only 8% of 18-24-year-old women would vote Conservative today, which correlates heavily with pessimism: 56% of women think the next generation will be worse off than their own. Meanwhile, Asian voters (42%) are nearly as likely to consider voting Conservative as White voters (44%), but only half as many would do so today.

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The King’s Christmas message reflects on personal challenges and global struggles

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THE KING delivered a heartfelt Christmas message at 3:00pm today, reflecting on his and the Princess of Wales’ battles with cancer, global conflicts, and the enduring power of compassion and hope.

His Majesty spoke from the Chapel of the former Middlesex Hospital in London, now a vibrant community space, sharing gratitude for the healthcare professionals who supported him and his family through illness.

Full text of the King’s speech:

“Earlier this year, as we commemorated the 80th Anniversary of D-Day, the Queen and I had the enormous privilege of meeting, once again, the remarkable veterans of that very special generation who gave of themselves so courageously, on behalf of us all.

“Listening to these once-young service men and women touched us deeply as they spoke of their comrades, drawn from across the Commonwealth, who never returned and who now rest peacefully where they made the ultimate sacrifice. Their example of service and selflessness continues to inspire, across the generations.

“During previous commemorations, we were able to console ourselves with the thought that these tragic events seldom happen in the modern era.

“But, on this Christmas Day, we cannot help but think of those for whom the devastating effects of conflict – in the Middle East, in Central Europe, in Africa and elsewhere – pose a daily threat to so many people’s lives and livelihoods.

“We also think of the humanitarian organisations working tirelessly to bring vital relief. After all, the Gospels speak so vividly of conflict and teach the values with which we can overcome it.

“The example that Jesus gave us is timeless and universal. It is to enter the world of those who suffer, to make a difference to their lives and so bring hope where there is despair.

“As the famous Christmas Carol, ‘Once In Royal David’s City’ reminds us, ‘Our Saviour holy’ ‘came down to Earth from Heaven’, lived among ‘the poor and mean and lowly’ and transformed the lives of those he met, through God’s ‘redeeming love’.

“That is the heart of the Nativity Story and we can hear its beat in the belief of all the great faiths in the love and mercy of God in times of joy and of suffering, calling us to bring light where there is darkness.

“All of us go through some form of suffering at some stage in our life, be it mental or physical. The degree to which we help one another – and draw support from each other, be we people of faith or of none – is a measure of our civilisation as nations.

“This is what continually impresses me, as my family and I meet with, and listen to, those who dedicate their lives to helping others.

“From a personal point of view, I offer special, heartfelt thanks to the selfless doctors and nurses who, this year, have supported me and other members of my family through the uncertainties and anxieties of illness, and have helped provide the strength, care and comfort we have needed.

“I am deeply grateful, too, to all those who have offered us their own kind words of sympathy and encouragement.

“On our recent visit to the South Pacific to attend the Commonwealth summit, I was reminded constantly of the strength which institutions, as well as individuals, can draw from one another. And of how diversity of culture, ethnicity and faith provides strength, not weakness.

“Across the Commonwealth, we are held together by a willingness to listen to each other, to learn from one another and to find just how much we have in common. Because, through listening, we learn to respect our differences, to defeat prejudice, and to open up new possibilities.

“I felt a deep sense of pride here in the United Kingdom when, in response to anger and lawlessness in several towns this summer, communities came together, not to repeat these behaviours, but to repair. To repair not just buildings, but relationships. And, most importantly, to repair trust; by listening and, through understanding, deciding how to act for the good of all.

“Again, listening is a recurrent theme of the Nativity story. Mary, the Mother of Jesus, listened to the Angel who revealed to her a different future full of hope for all people. The message of the Angels to the shepherds – that there should be peace on Earth – in fact echoes through all faiths and philosophies.

“It rings true to this day for people of goodwill across the world. And so it is with this in mind that I wish you, and all those you love, a most joyful and peaceful Christmas.”

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First Minister urges support for the lonely in Christmas message

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FIRST MINISTER Eluned Morgan has paid tribute to those working over the festive season and encouraged people to check in on those who may be lonely in her first Christmas address to the nation.

Baroness Eluned Morgan, who was confirmed as First Minister of Wales following a Senedd vote in August, described the role as the greatest honour of her life. The former health minister, who grew up on a council estate in Ely, became the first woman to hold the office.

NADOLIG LLAWEN

In her address, the First Minister said: “Nadolig Llawen i chi gyd. Merry Christmas everyone.

“I want to wish you all a joyful and peaceful Christmas – wherever and however you’re celebrating.

“I hope you’re able to spend this time with family, friends and loved ones, and find time for some deserved rest.

“I would like to say a ‘diolch o galon’ to the many people who will be working over the festive season.”

HOPE FOR THE NEW YEAR

Baroness Morgan continued: “From our emergency services to our NHS and our local councils – thank you for everything you do to keep us safe at this time of year.

“And of course, to all the volunteers who give up their time for others. That’s the real spirit of Christmas.

“Christmas, we know, can be a lonely time for many, so if you do one thing this Christmas, be sure to check in on others within your community.

“Together, we can all look forward to the new year with hope.

“Nadolig Llawen a Blwyddyn Newydd Dda.”

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Pembrokeshire County Council invites public feedback on budget plans

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PEMBROKESHIRE County Council is calling on residents to share their views on the upcoming budget as it faces significant financial pressures.

The consultation, open until January 5, aims to identify which services are most valued by the community and where savings could be made.

An update on the provisional funding settlement from the Welsh Government was presented to the full council last week. Councillor Joshua Beynon, Cabinet Member for Finance and Efficiencies, noted that while the 3.6% increase—equating to an additional £8.1 million—was more favourable than expected, it still leaves a funding gap of approximately £28.1 million.

Councillor Beynon said: “Difficult decisions lie ahead despite the improved settlement. We need to prioritise services that matter most to our residents.”

Detailed reports on the settlement’s impact and the projected funding shortfall will be discussed by the cabinet and scrutiny committees early next year, before being presented to the full council in February.

Residents can have their say by completing an online response form available on the council’s website. A budget modelling tool is also provided for public use.

Paper copies of the response form can be requested by calling 01437 764551 or emailing [email protected].

All responses must be submitted by January 5.

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