Comment
A question of power

by Matthew Paul
For anyone who stood as a candidate for ChangeUK in 2019, and watched over the course of the six-week European Parliament election campaign as mild enthusiasm on the part of the British public cooled into vague embarrassment before crystallising into disgust, it’s nice to see the Remoaners on the rebound. Brexit is back in the news, and causing big trouble for Boris Johnson.
“But Brexit”, you exclaim, “is done! Didn’t we have a General Election to sort that out? Didn’t our MPs vote for an oven-ready deal, back on 20th December last year?”
They did, but if the deal was supposed to be oven-ready, Boris left the plastic bag full of giblets inside and it is causing a terrible stink. Those unpalatable entrails are the ongoing and irreconcilable tensions between wanting our own laws and trade arrangements, and maintaining an open border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland.
The United Kingdom is one single market; Wales cannot exclude or impose tariffs on goods from Scotland, England or Northern Ireland, and vice versa. This was the case for nearly three hundred years before the UK joined the EEC in 1973; when it did join, UK citizens swapped one single market of (then) 56 million for a single market that grew to ten times that size. The advantages of this, to our exporting economy, were obvious.
Leaving that wider single market creates a problem, which is also obvious. There is a land border between the UK and Ireland, which international law (the Good Friday Agreement) says must remain open. If the UK uses its freedom from EU tyranny to strike new trade deals and to remove ‘foreign laws’ around food safety and product standards –which was the whole point of Brexit– it compromises the integrity of European product standards by allowing chlorinated chicken etc etc to pass, unchecked and untaxed, into the EU.
There is no reason why the EU should put up with this, and throughout Brexit talks the Commission made it clear that retaining an open border in Ireland is non-negotiable. There is only one straightforward alternative: a customs border in the Irish Sea between the island of Ireland and Great Britain. In June 2018, Theresa May was leaning in that direction, but this proposed solution –breaking up the territorial integrity of the UK to protect the integrity of the EU single market– was so detestable to the Spartans of the ERG that they passed a law specifically to stop May from doing it.
Fast forward to December 2019, and the same Spartans, cowed by Boris’ ruthless public execution of the 21 Remainers who rebelled against his Government’s Brexit policy, followed the PM like sheep through the Ayes lobby to endorse his oven-ready deal with an Irish Sea border as its defining characteristic. Boris said at the time that this would not create paperwork for businesses exporting goods from NI to the rest of the UK. He lied: the deal dictates that the UK keeps the NI/ ROI border open, implements the EU customs code in Northern Ireland, and obliges exporters to fill in declarations on goods going between NI and the rest of the UK.
Perhaps Boris just thought no-one would notice, even though everyone did. Perhaps he thought the EU would quietly back down on imposing the customs code. If this was the Government’s plan, it reinforces the impression that the Government is incapable of planning past lunchtime. The EU continued to insist stoutly on the terms of the deal being honoured. Finding himself well down in the game, Boris kicked over the card table. He presented the House of Commons with the Internal Market Bill, section 45 of which gives the Government power simply to ignore or override the Northern Ireland Protocol, to allow seamless trade and consistent regulation between all constituent parts of the UK.
M’learned friends, blanching at the idea of tearing up treaties, were the first to cry foul. The government’s top lawyer, Sir Jonathan Jones, walked out of his job in despair. On Wednesday Lord Keen –the Government’s law officer for Scotland– resigned too, rather than adopt the intellectual contortions necessary to support the Bill. Even Robert Buckland, the likeable if impressionable Lord Chancellor, who previously mounted a sorry-faced hostage-video defence of Boris’s prorogation of Parliament and would be about as likely as the woolsack he sits on to rebel against Government policy, is shuffling uncomfortably. It’s not just the Remoaners, either; unless dark Lord of the Sith Michael Howard, and former Attorney-General and basso-profondo Brexithorn Sir Geoffrey Cox are now to be classed as Remoaners.
Some of the pearl-clutching over the sanctity of international law is misplaced. As De Gaulle observed, “Les traités, voyez-vous, sont comme les jeunes filles et les roses: ça dure ce que ça dure.” The EU regards any emanation of international law that questions the acquis Communautaire with withering contempt, and owes zillions of dollars in WTO fines for breaching international law with state aid to Airbus.
It comes down to a question of power, to a clear-headed assessment of whether or not you are going to win, and to whether the prize to be gained offsets the reputational damage of reneging on international obligations. Tearing up a treaty signed only months before is crass and looks weak. Kicking over the card table when you’re losing isn’t a great move if the other player then shoots you dead.
If the Government really wants to scare people about the effects of the Coronavirus, it could do worse than loop videos of Boris in December compared to Boris now. The hoo-ha over the Internal Market Bill is one more unforced mistake; the thickening miasma of incompetence and bad judgement is weakening this Government like a nasty dose of the Covid. On Tuesday, Boris fiddled with his phone through PMQs while Ed Miliband –Ed Miliband!– cut the hopelessly depleted Prime Minister to bits in front of a drolly amused House; Boris put up less resistance than a bacon sandwich.

Comment
Trump’s disgraceful treatment of Ukraine – Pembrokeshire stands with Zelenskyy

“Ukraine is fighting not just for its own freedom, but for the principles of democracy and justice that should unite us all”, says Herald Editor, Tom Sinclair

THERE are moments in history when leaders define themselves—not just by what they say, but by how they treat others. On Friday (Feb 28), in a shocking display of arrogance and ignorance, President Donald Trump showed the world precisely what kind of leader he is. In an extraordinary and disgraceful diplomatic blunder, Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to leave the White House, cutting short a meeting that was meant to strengthen ties between the two nations. Instead of supporting a country fighting for its survival, Trump chose to humiliate its leader.
This was not just a moment of political theatre; it was an insult to every Ukrainian citizen suffering under Russia’s brutal invasion, to every soldier defending their homeland, and to every nation that has stood up against tyranny.
For all his bluster about “making America great,” Trump’s latest act proves yet again that he does not understand the difference between strength and bullying. A strong leader stands by their allies. A weak leader turns their back when it’s convenient. A strong leader understands diplomacy. A weak leader throws a tantrum when things don’t go their way.
Trump’s dismissive attitude towards Ukraine is a betrayal of not just one nation but of democratic values themselves. Under his administration, the White House has become a revolving door of diplomatic disasters, with world leaders leaving insulted and America’s reputation in tatters. Instead of standing up to Vladimir Putin—the aggressor responsible for this war—Trump appears more interested in undermining Ukraine at every turn. His words and actions send a dangerous message: that the United States is no longer a reliable ally, and that dictators can act with impunity.
Unlike Trump and his administration, the people of Pembrokeshire have demonstrated true solidarity with Ukraine. When Russia launched its unprovoked invasion, our community stepped up. Five vans filled with essential supplies were sent directly to those in need, organised by The Pembrokeshire Herald and backed by the incredible generosity of local people. Our firefighters have sent vital equipment to help their Ukrainian counterparts. Across our county, individuals and businesses have raised money, collected aid, and stood in unwavering support of Ukraine’s right to defend itself.


We do this because we understand something Trump never will: that integrity, compassion, and standing up for what’s right matter more than self-serving political games. Pembrokeshire knows that Ukraine is fighting not just for its own freedom, but for the principles of democracy and justice that should unite us all.
History teaches us that bullies never win. Whether it’s on the playground or the world stage, those who use power to intimidate and belittle eventually face their reckoning. Trump’s pathetic treatment of Ukraine will not be forgotten. The world is watching, and America’s allies are taking note. The bonds between democratic nations will not be broken by one man’s petulance.

The Pembrokeshire Herald remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine. We stand with President Zelenskyy. We stand with the Ukrainian people. And we stand with all those who believe that democracy, freedom, and justice must prevail over the cowardice and corruption of those who would rather appease tyrants.
Trump’s disgraceful behaviour will be remembered for what it is: a moment of shame. But the bravery of Ukraine and the solidarity of those who support it will be remembered for what it represents: hope, resilience, and the undeniable truth that justice will triumph in the end.
Comment
Closure of Port Talbot blast furnace exposes limits of state power

By Jonathan Edwards
FUTURE historians will benchmark this week’s sad closure of the last remaining blast furnace at Tata Steel Port Talbot as a turning point in the UKs industrial history.
With the British Steel plant at Scunthorpe also due to turn off its own blast furnace, the UK as the birthplace of the industrial revolution will be left without the ability to produce its own steel.
This is a seismic moment therefore in our economic history: from here on in the UK will be reliant upon virgin steel imports.
Strategically this leaves the British state in an exposed position on all sorts of fronts.
Tragedy
This week’s development is of course primarily a tragedy for the 2,800 workers who will directly lose their jobs and those businesses further down the supply chain.
The jobs at Port Talbot were well paid in comparison to other available employment and therefore the local economy, even if workers were to find alternative jobs, will take a hit in terms of direct consumer expenditure.
The south Wales Valleys are already regrettably amongst the poorest regions of Europe.
The decision by Tata of course indicates the folly of privatising your primary industries in the first place. Once those industries are sold then governments lose control.
Decision makers
Port Talbot was originally bought by Corus before being ultimately bought by Tata in 2007, meaning that the fate of Welsh steel making was in the hands of decision makers in faraway Mumbai.
Understandably, directors and board members make decisions in what they perceive to be the best interests of their company.
Port Talbot is one asset of many that Tata holds across the world and in the group’s future business plan there is no longer a requirement for primary steel making capability in Port Talbot.
Did Brexit play a role in Tata’s thinking? The UK is no longer a part of the world’s largest economic union. If Tata wants to produce primary steel for the European market, why do it in Wales which is outside?
According to Tata, the blast furnaces were losing the company £1m a day. The restructuring involves £1.25bn investment by the company to build an electric arc furnace, which essentially recycles steel, with construction set to begin next summer. The UK Government will contribute £500m.
Savaged
In opposition the Labour Party absolutely savaged the blueprint, yet the final plans seem to have changed little now that they are in government at a UK level.
We were told in advance of the election that only a change of government could save the jobs. Prior to the election, Jo Stevens MP, the then Shadow Secretary of State for Wales, said in the Commons: “This government has forked out £500m taxpayers’ cash for the loss of 3,000 jobs and this is their deal, and they own it.”
Earlier this month, the new Business and Trade Secretary of State, Jonathan Reynolds, said the Labour version of the same deal gives “hope for the future of steel making in south Wales”.
From what I can see it’s the same number of jobs lost for the same amount of money invested by the UK Government. Furthermore, the unions’ alternative proposals have not been adopted.
I am not entirely convinced the tactic of the UK Government to gloss the agreement is credible.
Perhaps they genuinely thought that their proposals would change the position of the company; if so they have been given a very rude awakening on the limit of the powers of the nation state when up against a giant company like Tata.
Plaid Cymru’s ultimate call for the Welsh Government to compulsorily purchase the site also has its weaknesses.
The Welsh Government’s entire economic development budget for both revenue and capital is only £527m. At a £1m a day loss, compulsorily purchasing Port Talbot would wipe out 70% of the total budget without even considering the cost required to buy the plant.
Alternative for Deutschland
I was listening to a very interesting podcast by Irish economist David McWilliams recently where he discussed the rise of the far right AfD (Alternative for Deutschland) in Germany.
One of the main reasons for its recent electoral successes has been the decision of Volkswagen, a company that has provided well-remunerated employment for the best part of a century, to start closing production capacity in Germany.
The podcast argued that the demise of the old certainties has created a climate of fear that is being exploited.
We are no strangers to industrial decline in Wales; however the closure of the last steel making blast furnace in Wales underscores that we are facing a very uncertain economic future.
Faced with global forces they cannot control, the traditional political mainstream does not have a convincing narrative of where we are heading. Talk of a green industrial revolution sounds great in a pamphlet, but what exactly does it mean for working people in terms of employment and remuneration?
Looking at the overall strategic political position, I fear that Project Miserable by the UK Government could well backfire and play into the hands of the far right. Welsh nationalism also must move beyond its default grievance narrative. In the absence of hope for our people, malign forces will surely pounce.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr from 2010 to 2024.
Comment
Sunak calls summer General Election – we vote on July 4

THE UK goes to the polls on Thursday, July 4.
The Prime Minister announced the general election date in a sodden Downing Street at 5pm on Wednesday, May 22.
As the rain fell and “Things Can Only Get Better” blared over a nearby sound system, Mr Sunak set out his party’s key attack lines.
The Prime Minister attacked Labour for lacking a plan and Sir Kier Starmer for lacking principles.
Mr Sunak urged citizens to stay the course and trust his government to deliver stability and improvements.
The Prime Minister offered nothing new or inspirational, missing the chance to set a positive mood for the General Election campaign.
If one could detect a theme in the PM’s delivery, it appeared to be: “Things are going pretty badly; don’t let Labour ruin it”.
The weather matched the mood of the PM’s speech: wet. When Mr Sunak finished his speech and walked back into Number Ten, he was drenched.
Talking heads, the usual suspects, and the commentariat are already in overdrive.
Look! See! Scandal! Shock!
While the UK parties get ready for battle across key marginal seats and try grabbing headlines and favourable coverage, it’ll be easy to forget the importance of local issues in a General Election campaign.
There are three seats in South West Wales, all redrawn or renamed.
The key battlegrounds for Herald readers are Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshire, and Mid & South Pembrokeshire.
At the last UK General Election in 2019, Pembrokeshire’s working-class voters abandoned Labour. Our County returned two Conservative MPs. In 2021, our County returned two Conservative MSs. At the Council elections a year later, the Conservative vote held up even as it went into shrank drastically elsewhere.
It would not be surprising if Labour’s performance in West Wales were worse than in the rest of the country.
As at previous elections, Labour candidates in West Wales must overcome the Welsh Government’s reeking and widespread unpopularity.
Twenty-five years of devolution has delivered nebulous benefits for the Welsh people.
A quarter of a century of “the Welsh difference” has made little or no difference to Wales’s people.
Banging on about crises in education, transport, public services, housing, and the NHS could be fruitful in England. It would be astonishing if it weren’t. However, Labour is hamstrung by being responsible for those policy areas and their appalling condition in Wales.
Labour in Wales can’t rely on claiming things are much worse over the Severn Bridge any more than the Welsh Conservatives can claim they’re much better.
Unable to campaign on its record in the Welsh Government, Labour will have to fight on a broader battleground:
- The cost-of-living crisis.
- The feeling that fourteen years of a Conservative government in Westminster have not improved Welsh voters’ lives.
- Pressing the case that the time has come for change.
As for Wales’s other political parties, the Liberal Democrats are nowhere, the Greens will take any protest votes on the left from those who confuse activism and virtue-signalling with politics, and Reform will take any protest votes on the right from those who think “Two World Wars and One World Cup” is a programme for government.
Plaid Cymru faces different problems, not least because it comprises several factions that loathe each other more than they dislike other parties.
A good night for Plaid Cymru would be three seats won. A great night would be four seats won. There are, however, thirty-two Welsh constituencies. Do the maths.
Plaid Cymru—like the SNP or DUP—could have considerable leverage in a hung parliament or a parliament where the governing party has a small majority. The problem is Plaid chaining itself to the
Labour Government in Wales. “Vote Plaid, Get Labour” could switch off voters Plaid must win over, whether or not Leanne Wood wants them.

Plaid would be functionally irrelevant in a parliament with a large Labour majority. They would have no more say than an independent MP or the departing Green Party MP, Caroline Lucas.
In addition, fewer seats in Wales (down to 32 from 40) will almost certainly mean fewer Plaid MPs. The tiny seats in North West Wales that Plaid usually won are gone, merged with other constituencies. Ceredigion has merged with Preseli Pembrokeshire. Carmarthenshire’s new seat boundaries exclude some strong Plaid-voting areas, and the local party is divided.
Despite New Labour’s anthem, “Things Can Only Get Better,” being played over Rishi Sunak’s speech on Wednesday, Sir Kier Starmer has not tapped into the public mood like Tony Blair did.
So far, Labour’s messaging offers only vague hope of undefined improvements.
Anyone for “Stuck in the Middle with You”?
It might be enough.
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